2019 Phillies: Restructuring 2020's starting rotation

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Cole is the premier free-agent starter, but a long bidding war for the expensive hurler may eliminate the Phillies from the picture. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images. /

For many Phillies fans, perception has clouded reality from game one through the present, and they have a fault-finding litany of complaints from the managing partner down to lack of performances from injured players.

Today and tomorrow:

If questionable expectations were a virtue, the Philadelphia Phillies faithful –many but not all– would qualify for sainthood. Basically, an organization invests millions of dollars to develop pitchers and hopes a few will be in their five-man staff for multiple 162s, and they exhaust every option before abandoning their effort.

IN OTHER WORDS: “There are more teams looking for pitchers than there are pitchers. That’s why it’s pricey.” – Brian Cashman

The belief here in early April was a four-team race for the National League East pennant with health being the determining factor. Without it, each franchise would have a shot at an NL Wild Card berth, so the standings aren’t a total surprise if you consider the Fightins’ rotation and the others’ bullpens on Opening Day.

If you heard a win-now stance and saw it as a goal instead of a guaranteed NL pennant, you wouldn’t be bitter and scapegoat the entire club for not strongly contending for the divisional title. You saw what you wanted to see. Realistically, wishful thinking doesn’t lead to a well-thought-out conclusion.

To illustrate, many expect a reliever to retire the batters he faces. So, he records the outs and he does his job with an occasional hiccup. Translation: If one run allowed in one inning is a poor outing, four bad performances at 93.3 percent for 60 appearances are tolerable: Management expects 80 percent or 12 unacceptable results.

To me, fans are just being fans, and I expect the complaints after their emotional investment in the Phils. But if you look at this like 2007, a Wild Card Game will prepare you for next season regardless of the outcome or an NLDS exit at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In the next free-agent class of top starters, organizations will have four southpaws and four right-handers to bid on for their rotations. Some are aging veterans, two- or-three-slot hurlers and one ace, but many fans have a downside to consider other than bullets left in their arms.

As for the red pinstripes, they have Aaron Nola at the head, Jake Arrieta in the four spot, and four pitchers competing for the bottom rung of the five-man staff. Plus they have Drew Smyly as the potential left-handed starter if he has fully recovered from the TJ surgery that cost him two summers.

After recording 5 2/3 innings since July 27, the three weeks may have reenergized Eflin. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

Usual suspects:

Regarding player evaluation, some Phillies faithful supporters anticipate an MiLB star affecting the parent club four years before the franchise does. To some, earning an MLB promotion is different from any other industry, and achieving immediate stardom is the rule, not the exception. If not, next!

On the other hand, GMs want three productive months at Double-A before the standout advances to Triple-A, and the execs require a successful half season there before reaching the top plateau. Then, a player makes an impact in or after his third campaign in the majors or its equivalent: front-office thinking, not mine.

Jerad Eickhoff has 76 MLB starts despite missing two injury-plagued 162s., but his four rehab games with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs have produced a 7.88 ERA. But since the three-year mark is 90 outings, he has 14 more starts remaining on his developmental time if the Fightins don’t move him in the offseason.

Despite 71 starts, Nick Pivetta has a 3.60 ERA during eight relief appearances for 15 innings, and he has produced six decent outings out of eight for 75 percent with 80 percent being acceptable. And even though he’s 19 starts shy of three summers, the red pinstripes will need back-end arms in ’20.

After a strong showing for three months, Zach Eflin hit the wall but he’s had a three-week rest. And he’s only made 66 starts: two seasons. So, the next developmental step is to be productive for an entire 162. And he’ll come to Clearwater for a fifth-slot competition with Vince Velasquez after now replacing Arrieta.

With a strong finish, Velasquez will be in the hunt for the final rotation spot next March. Currently, he has 90 starts on his resume, and he has a 3.62 ERA over 32 1/3 frames and six starts for July and August: okay at least for the bottom rung. He has had five decent outings out of six or 83.3 percent compared to an expected 80 percent.

Currently, Bumgarner could be pitching his way in some team’s rotation. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images. /

Portsiders:

When the Phillies faithful consider free-agent signings, they mostly focus on the positive aspects of the moundsmen, but general manager Matt Klentak must weigh negatives those locals may not be aware of. The GM considers the star’s age, injury history, location preferences and his organization’s finances.

Concerning Hyun-Jin Ryu, the left-hander is having an excellent campaign, and his numbers will excite many fan bases. However, Asian players usually prefer west coast teams, and he’s in his final prime year: ages 27 through 32. Plus he’s an injury risk.

While Cole Hamels tugs at our heartstrings, the aging veteran is in the uncharted waters where the other three Phillies aces finished their careers: a nostalgic brew. And he’ll probably seek a three-season deal and accept two summers at or slightly above his current $20 million salary.

Southpaws’ 2019 stats through Aug. 15:

Bumgarner, 30: 26 Gms., 158 2/3 Inn., 8-7, a 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
Hamels, 35.5: 20 Gms., 109 2/3 Inn., 6-4, a 3.69 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.
Keuchel, 31.5: 11 Gms., 65 2/3 Inn., 3-5, a 4.39 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.
Ryu, 32.5: 22 Gms., 142 2/3 Inn., 12-2, a 1.45 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.

Pitching for a new contract, Madison Bumgarner has a 2.78 ERA from June 25’s ballgame. But only his first two campaigns will be during his prime, and two or three will be after that: half or most of his agreement. Overall, he is putting up three-slot-hurler stats. .

As for Keuchel, he also is a mid-rotation piece, but he won’t have a QO (qualifying offer) to complicate his offseason status. However, he’s in his final prime 162, and any pact will be for the campaigns beyond that. Plus he will probably receive a deal for 3-4 seasons with his best years behind him.

Wheeler may be a backup plan for the Phillies this offseason. Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

Top- to-mid-rotation arms:

After their starting staff’s difficulties, the Phillies probably won’t limit their possibilities to lefties. In fact, some right-handers could be a better fit for the franchise going forward: a pitcher with three prime summers remaining. Yes, one in particular.

Atop the field, Gerrit Cole will probably command a $200 million contract for seven campaigns through age 35 but only the first four during his prime. And the Houston Astros are replacing him in their rotation with Greinke, plus a drawn-out bidding war will discourage quick-moving –not immediate– execs like Klentak.

Among the younger starters, Zack Wheeler‘s stats are those of a fourth-rung hurler, but he could receive a QO from the New York Mets. That stated, would their front office risk $17.9 million for one season? Presently, he’s earning almost $6 million for ’19, and contenders may not want to pay top dollar and a first-round draft pick.

Right-handers’ 2019 stats through Aug. 15:

Cole, almost 29: 25 Gms., 156 2/3 Inn., 14-5, a 2.87 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.
Unnamed, 29: 23 Gms., 120 1/3 Inn., 13-5, a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
Wheeler, 29: 23 Gms., 144 1/3 Inn., 9-7, a 4.36 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
Gibson, 31.5: 25 Gms. (1 relief), 132 1/3 Inn., 11-5, a 4.28 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.

From the Minnesota Twins, Kyle Gibson would have a 3.78 ERA after lowering it by 0.50 ERA to compensate for the NL. In other words, a three-slot arm is one notch below what the Fightins need, but he could be a second inking if Klentak adds two starters to the five-man-staff. However, 2019 is his last prime 162.

The last candidate is 13-5 with a 3.44 ERA, and he has three prime summers remaining. Basically, he’s a two-slot moundsman with his first free-agent opportunity, and he will probably receive a five-year offer tops. Plus the next section also reveals this most logical Phils’ signing so far.

Odorizzi may be the best available two-slot arm pricewise and agewise. Photo by M. Brown/Getty Images. /

X factor:

While many feel the Phillies need two starters, Smyly could earn a spot. He missed two campaigns due to TJ surgery, and the first season back in the majors is not an immediate return to top form. However, he could bounce back quicker because he’s not a flamethrower.

In five starts for the Phils, he’s 1-1 with a 4.71 ERA. In fact, the Chicago Cubs signed and stashed him after his surgery. But exercising Hamels’ $20 million option forced them to move his $7 million pact elsewhere to avoid the highest Luxury Tax penalty.

Even though Smyly is becoming a remote possibility for the rotation, the red pinstripes will still pursue someone to slot behind Nola. And Jake Odorizzi has three prime 162s, is currently making $9,5 million, and might agree to $15 million each for five summers: $75 million. So, he could fill the bill and not break the bank.

Odorizzi’s arsenal:

Four-seam fastball: 682 for 32.6 percent
with a 93.1-mph average and a 95.5-mph high.
Sinker: 514 for 24.6 percent.
Splitter: 338 for 16.2 percent.
Slider: 240 for 11.5 percent.
Curveball: 164 for 7.8 percent.
Cutter: 154 for 7.4 percent.

When Klentak considers players’ salary increases for 2020, extensions for stars, and money coming off the books, the GM won’t want an ace’s $200 million commitment or $30 million per year. For a $15 million annual outlay, whom could the exec acquire to shore up the five-man staff? Odorizzi!

Because he’s left-handed, Smyly could get a shot at the Phillies 2020 rotation. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies: Restructuring 2020’s starting rotation