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Yankees: The truth is Aaron Judge hasn’t been that bad

By Manny Gómez |
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 14: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees in action against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on August 14, 2019 in New York City. The Yankees defeated the Orioles 6-5. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 14: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees in action against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on August 14, 2019 in New York City. The Yankees defeated the Orioles 6-5. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

This season, New York Yankees fans are a bit down on right fielder Aaron Judge, but the truth is, he hasn’t been all that bad.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge took the world by storm in 2017 when he was the runner-up in the AL MVP race and won the Rookie of the Year award. That season, Judge lead the league in runs (128), home runs (52), and walks (127). In all, that season he slashed .284 / .422 / .627, which is just incredible for a rookie player in MLB.

Since then, when healthy, Judge has exhibited a similar level of play – patience, power, and run creation – on the field. The key phrase being: when healthy.

Beginning in 2018, Judge has had two major stints on the injured list. He missed close to two months in 2018 with a right wrist fracture, and then missed another two months in 2019 with a left oblique strain.

With so much time being missed in the regular season, Judge has been unable to replicate the level of play he produced in 2017 and fans have noticed, especially this season. The fact of the matter is that Judge’s power production has dipped a bit this season. A concerning fact considering the juiced ball phenomena MLB is currently dealing with.

His isolated power (ISO) – a measure of the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits – this season (.190) is the lowest it’s been since his Rookie of the Year campaign (.343). What’s more, his home run rate (calculated by dividing the number of home runs by plate appearance) is significantly down as well.

  • 2017: 678 PA / 52 HR = 13.04 PA/HR
  • 2018: 498 PA / 27 HR = 18.44 PA/HR
  • 2019: 301 PA / 12 HR =  25.08 PA/HR

However, despite the fact that experts, analysts, and fans observe Aaron Judge now and view a diminished hitter that doesn’t spark fear in opponents, Judge is still performing at a level that makes him better than you might think.

In fact, despite having 15 fewer home runs and having played in close to 20 fewer games than Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge has a higher fWAR – 2.1 vs 1.7 – than Sanchez. Judge walks at a higher clip than any New York Yankees hitter with a minimum 250 PA and has a .382 OBP, which is lower only than DJ LeMahieu (.387 OBP) and Luke Voit (.392 OBP).

His wRC+ (118) tops Sanchez (111) and Aaron Hicks (100), two players most New York Yankees fans would attribute a lot of the success the team has had this season. What’s more, it seems that every time he’s at the plate, he works a full count.

All of this chips away at an opponents performance and is exactly the reason why Judge is an above-average run creator in baseball, even when he’s not mashing baseballs into the earth’s stratosphere.

Sure, right now the home runs aren’t there. However, considering that his exit velocity (96.7) is higher than it’s ever been, it’s only a matter of time, and when it starts, opponents better watch out because he won’t be stopped.

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