In week-20 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” the Chicago Cubs bullpen should have had Thursday night’s game against the Phillies on lockdown. The Cubs led 5-1 with just three outs to get, a situation that statistically is as close to a sure thing as baseball produces.
Yet the Phillies emerged victorious by a 7-5 score. The amazing aspect is that Bryce Harper’s game-winning grand slam wasn’t even the week’s most pivotal hit. The even more amazing aspect was that the most pivotal hit came off the bat of a Baltimore Oriole.
This was an extraordinarily bad week for bullpens. The Cubs blew that game in Philly, then one night later blew another one in Pittsburgh. The Orioles staged (for them) an unprecedented rally against the Houston Astros. The Brewers and Twins traded blown leads, and the Arizona Diamondbacks managed to lose a game in which they scored eight times on home runs, two of them coming in extra innings.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.