MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-20

In week-20 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” the Chicago Cubs bullpen should have had Thursday night’s game against the Phillies on lockdown. The Cubs led 5-1 with just three outs to get, a situation that statistically is as close to a sure thing as baseball produces.

Yet the Phillies emerged victorious by a 7-5 score. The amazing aspect is that Bryce Harper’s game-winning grand slam wasn’t even the week’s most pivotal hit. The even more amazing aspect was that the most pivotal hit came off the bat of a Baltimore Oriole.

This was an extraordinarily bad week for bullpens. The Cubs blew that game in Philly, then one night later blew another one in Pittsburgh. The Orioles staged (for them) an unprecedented rally against the Houston Astros. The Brewers and Twins traded blown leads, and the Arizona Diamondbacks managed to lose a game in which they scored eight times on home runs, two of them coming in extra innings.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

9. Nick Ahmed, 46 percent

In a home-run fest between the Diamondbacks and Giants at Chase Field in Phoenix, Nick Ahmed’s long ball proved to be the most pivotal, although not the most decisive, moment.

The game, emblematic of this home-run dominated season, featured a dozen shots, four of them coming in extra innings. It also featured a game-tying five-run Diamondback comeback in the bottom of the eighth inning powered by three of those homers, one each off the bats of Eduardo Escobar, Wilmer Flores and Adam Jones.

Jones’ blast sent the game into a scoreless ninth. In the top of the 10th, however, Kevin Pillar homered with Scooter Gennett on base to give San Francisco a 9-7 advantage. Even after Flores opened the bottom of the 10th with another home run of his own, Arizona’s chances of winning still registered only 12 percent when Ahmed faced Will Smith one out later.

Ahmed evened those odds with a game-tying blast down the left-field line.

In the end, Ahmed’s heroics went for naught. In the top of the 11th, Mike Yastrzemski hit the game’s 12th home run, throwing the Giants back on top 10-9. This time they kept the ball in the park through the inning’s bottom half to win.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

8. Max Muncy  47 percent

It wouldn’t be a week of baseball without a story-book Dodger come back, would it?

This time, as is frequently the case in 2019, Max Muncy provided the heroics. Los Angeles trailed the Braves 3-2 through six innings Wednesday night in Atlanta before staging a rally off rookie phenom Mike Soroka and the Atlanta bullpen.

Will Smith opened the seventh by coaxing a walk from Soroka, but Soroka recovered nicely, getting Matt Beaty to ground into a double play. But when pinch hitter A.J. Pollock singled, Braves manager Brian Snitker decided that Soroka had done enough. He called to the bullpen for Sean Newcomb.

Newcomb walked pinch hitter Kyle Garlick, bringing up Muncy. At that point, the chances of a Dodger victory stood at only 30 percent, but Muncy adjusted those odds with a three-run bomb into the seats in right-center. Then Newcomb compounded his problems by issuing another home run ball, this one to Justin Turner.

Suddenly that 3-2 Braves lead had become a 6-3 Dodger advantage. When Smith added a two-run home run in the eighth inning, the Dodgers had an 8-3 advantage that was more than substantial enough for their shutdown bullpen to maintain. Julio Urias retired nine of the last 10 Braves batters to post the save.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

7. Michael Brantley, 47 percent

One day earlier, the Houston Astros had cuffed around the Baltimore Orioles 23-3, Houston’s fourth victory over Baltimore in five games. With Justin Verlander taking the mound Sunday, the betting favored another Astros victory.

But baseball can be unpredictable that way. Baltimore cuffed Verlander around for nine hits and four runs through five innings and led 5-4 going into the top of the ninth.

Against Baltimore’s sometimes shaky bullpen, however, that left plenty of time for an Astros rally. Facing Mychal Givens, George Springer opened the inning with a line drive base hit. Jose Altuve laid down a bunt and got a break when Orioles third baseman Rio Ruiz failed to retire Springer or Altuve.

With the tying and go-ahead runs on base, Michael Brantley came up next. Hitless in his three previous at-bats – two of them strikeouts – Brantley fell behind 1-2, then clipped a hot grounder inside the first baseline that rolled all the way to the wall.

Springer and Altuve raced around to give Houston a 6-5 lead, and when Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander’s throw got away, Brantley came all the way around to make it 7-5.

On almost any other day, a two-run ninth-inning lead against the Orioles would have translated to an Astros win. On this day, however, Baltimore had other plans. More on that later.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

6. Kris Bryant, 48 percent

By the seventh inning of their Sunday game in Cincinnati, the Chicago Cubs needed a hero. One of baseball’s worst road teams, the Cubs had lost two of the series’ first three games – and although they didn’t know it at the time they were about to embark on a stretch of four more road losses.

They trailed the Reds 3-1 and were having trouble coping with Cincinnati’s young ace, Luis Castillo. For such moments, the Cubs have Kris Bryant.

Ian Happ actually got things moving with a double high off the wall that umpires reviewed before holding Happ up at second. Tony Kemp’s groundout got Happ home, but when Jason Heyward touched Castillo for a base hit Reds manager David Bell removed Castillo in favor of Michael Lorenzen.

The first batter Lorenzen faced was Nick Castellanos, who lined a single of his own between left and center. That brought up Bryant, and the Cubs slugger didn’t waste any time looking Lorenzen over. Bryant rammed his first fastball into the left-field seats for a three-run home that put Chicago ahead 5-3.

It was Chicago’s first lead since jumping in front 1-0 in the first inning of an eventual 5-1 loss two days earlier. It also enabled the Cubs to escape Cincinnati with a split of the four-game series, That in itself was something of an accomplishment for these non-road warriors, who were 0-9-1 in their 10 most recent road series.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

5. Lane Thomas, 59 percent

If the St. Louis Cardinals win the NL Central this season, they’ll have the Pittsburgh Pirates to thank.

The Cardinals have played the Pirates 16 teams so far in 2019 and won 12 of those 16. But it’s not like St. Louis has abused its weaker NL Central brethren. Seven of the 12 Cardinal wins came by two runs or fewer, and in six of those seven Pittsburgh either led or held a tie during the game’s late innings.

Sunday’s 11-9 Cardinal victory at Busch Stadium is the prototype. Behind Josh Bell’s two home runs and four RBIs, the Bucs led 8-4 heading into the bottom of the seventh and appeared solidly on their way to a rare win in the teams’ series.

It was not to be. With one out, Paul Goldschmidt tapped Pirate pitcher Kyle Crick for a looping single, advancing to third on Marcel Ozuna’s line drive hit. One out later, Crick hit Yairo Munoz with a pitch, loading the bases and bringing Andrew Knizner to the plate representing the tying run. Crick hit him as well.

Pirate manager Clint Hurdle progressed as far as the dugout’s top step before Crick halted him with a stare and a motion. One out away from escaping with a three-run lead, Crick took on Lane Thomas, whose earlier triple had produced a run.

Crick and Thomas staged a six-pitch smackdown that ran the count to 3-2. The seventh pitch was a four-seam fastball toward the plate’s inside edge, and Thomas met it squarely. Four hundred and ten feet later, Thomas crossed the plate with a center field grand slam that gave St. Louis a 9-8 lead. The Cardinals held on to win 11-9.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

4. Marwin Gonzalez, 59 percent

As regional rivals, the Twins and Brewers have played four times this season. All four have been classics befitting the teams’ statuses at or near the top of their divisions.

The teams’ Tuesday game in Milwaukee was a superb illustration of the clubs’ contentiousness. Behind Martin Perez’s strong start, the Twins got away to a 3-1 lead through six innings. In the seventh, though, the Brewers took advantage of Perez’s relief corps to score four times and jump into a 5-4 lead. That’s where the score stood when the Twins faced Drew Pomeranz in the eighth inning.

Eddie Rosario opened the inning by touching Pomeranz for a two-base hit, and Miguel Sano followed by drawing a walk. Pomeranz retired Luis Arreaz on a fly ball, then Brewers manager Craig Counsell called on Matt Albers to face C.j. Cron. Albers struck out Cron.

With Marwin Gonzalez up next, Counsell summoned bullpen ace Josh Hader to record the inning’s final out and protect the 5-4 lead. The opposite happened: Hader challenged Gonzalez with a first-pitch fastball that Gonzalez turned into a three-run home run. That gave Minnesota a 7-5 lead, and the Twins pen retired six of the final Brewers hitters to complete the comeback victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

3. Nolan Arenado, 62 percent

Nolan Arenado’s Wednesday home run to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks was one of three mission-critical walk-off blasts during the week. For the record, the other two are the only two hits more meaningful than Arenado’s.

Twice already that night, the home-town Rockies had rallied to tie the game, most recently with a three-run sixth to set up a 5-5 deadlock. Ryan McMahon delivered the key blow in that inning, a three-run home run off Yoshihisa Hirano.

In the top of the ninth, Arizona went ahead for the third time. With two out, Scott Oberg walked Jake Lamb, then worked a 3-2 count on Ketel Marte.

With Lamb getting a running start, Marte looped a fly ball into short center that neither shortstop Trevor Story nor center fielder Raimel Tapia could catch up with. Taking advantage of the fortuitous placement, Lamb had come all the way around to score the go-ahead run.

But the Rockies still had a shot left in the bottom of the ninth. Story opened the inning by getting in the way of a 1-2 Archie Bradley pitch. Representing the winning run, Arenado followed by bashing Bradley’s first pitch down the left-field line and into the seats for a game-winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

2. Bryce Harper, 66 percent

The bottom of the ninth inning of Philadelphia’s 7-5 victory over the Chicago Cubs featured something that is almost never seen: a 99 percent shift in the odds within a single inning. Here’s how it happened.

Rowan Wick takes the mound with Chicago holding a 5-1 lead. Odds of a Phillies victory: 2 percent.

Wick retired Jean Segura on a fly ball to left field. Odds of a Philadelphia victory: Less than 1 percent.

Cesar Hernandez reaches on an error by Cubs shortstop David Bote: Odds of a Philadelphia victory: 2 percent.

Scott Kingery lines a single to center field, Hernandez advances to second. Odds of a Philadelphia victory, 5 percent.

Brad Miller, pinch-hitting for Ranger Suarez, grounds an infield single. Hernandez scored, Kingery advances to third. Cubs lead 5-2. Odds of a Philadelphia victory: 12 percent.

Pedro Strop replaces Rowan Wick as Cubs pitcher. Roman Quinn grounds an infield single to second. Kingery scores, Miller to second. Cubs lead 5-3. Odds of a Philadelphia victory: 21 percent.

Strop hits Rhys Hoskins with a pitch. Miller to third, Quinn to second. Odds of a Philadelphia victory: 34 percent.

Derek Holland replaces Strop as Cubs pitcher. Harper hits a grand slam home run into the right-field seats. Score: Phillies 7-5. Odds of a Phillies victory: 100 percent.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-20

1. Rio Ruiz, 89 percent

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The Baltimore Orioles have lost two of every three games they’ve played, so dramatic comebacks have not been a featured part of their season. Sunday, however, was a notable exception, made more noteworthy by the fact that the rally came against possibly baseball’s best team.

The Orioles rose up and cuffed around Houston ace Justin Verlander, knocking him out after five innings and leading 4-3. But Michael Brantley’s previously noted triple highlighted a three-run Astros top of the ninth that gave the visitors a 7-5 lead in Baltimore. It was precisely the kind of game the Orioles have spent all season losing.

Then Jace Peterson opened the bottom of the ninth with a double off Astros closer, Roberto Osuna. After a ground out moved Peterson to third, Osuna hit Chance Sisco with a pitch and Chris Davis followed with a  sacrifice fly that scored Peterson and made the score 7-6.

The next batter was Rio Ruiz, a light-hitting infielder waived by the Atlanta Braves in December. Given a regular shot this season, Ruiz has managed just a .244 average and a lackluster .677 OPS.

Against Osuna, however, Rio enjoyed a moment of glory. On a 2-2 count, Ruiz lifted a fly ball that carried the rightfield wall for a two-run, game-winning home run. It was Baltimore’s first walk-off victory of the season.