Red Sox: Looking back on Sale’s nightmare 2019 season
By Sean Basile
2019 is over and done for the Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale. Let’s look back at one of the worst seasons of his career.
Chris Sale looks to be done for the 2019 season due to elbow inflammation. Luckily for Sale and the Boston Red Sox, he does not appear to need Tommy John surgery, but further tests and second opinions are being tabulated at the moment.
There’s no question 2019 has been a nightmare for Sale as he’s pitched to a 6-11 record with a 4.40 ERA, all while seeing his team flounder in the standings. Sale and the Red Sox have fallen victim to what so many other defending world champion team has fallen into over the past (nearly) two decades- World Series hangover; everything went right for you one year; the following year, NOTHING goes right.
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Sale is still an elite pitcher in this league and if we really want to delve into the numbers, he had 218 strikeouts in 147.1 innings and led the Major League in K/9 at 13.3. His control also stayed consistent as he recorded a very respectable 37 free passes in those 147.1 innings (lowest K/BB ratio in three years as well- 5.89). So, all in all, it hasn’t been THAT bad for Chris Sale, despite the fact that his record and ERA don’t speak to that.
What exactly was his problem? It was a combination of poor pitch selection and (what we now know) injury. If we look at all of his pitches by way of FanGraphs:
2018
Fastball: AVG Velocity of 95.7; usage of 39%
Sinker/Two-Seam: AVG Velocity of 93.1; usage of 11.1%
Changeup: AVG Velocity of 87.3; usage of 15.4%
Slider: AVG Velocity of 80.1; usage of 34.6%
2019
Fastball: AVG Velocity of 93.7; usage of 36%
Sinker/Two-Seam: AVG Velocity of 92.3; usage of 10.3%
Changeup: AVG Velocity of 85.5; usage of 15.3%
Slider: AVG Velocity of 79.2; usage of 38.4%
……we see a droppage in velocity across all four of his pitches and a slight uptick in usage of the slider at the expense of the fastball. I should’ve seen this earlier, but this is a prime example of a pitcher nursing some kind of injury. Fewer fastballs and higher usage of secondary pitches to compensate for “less gas in the tank” so to speak in regards to the utilization of the fastball.
Spin rate is still there. Breakage of pitches is still there. And the strikeouts didn’t even take that much of a dip; in fact, Sale struck batters out at a rate slightly lower than last year’s brilliant performance and more than any of the other previous 8 years of his career all while carrying a higher-than-average ERA and pedestrian win/loss record.
What this year’s performance by Chris Sale has shown me is that he was a little tired out from the World Series run and (with a slightly shortened/less desirable Spring Training mixed in there) his performance suffered from Game 1 to right now.
24 home runs surrendered as opposed to 11 last year. Highest FIP (3.39) in his three years as a Red Sock. Most earned runs surrendered (72) in his three years as a Red Sock. Highest ERA of his entire career (4.40).
Chris Sale was tired. He wasn’t 100% coming into the season. And batters took advantage of that.
Going forward, with the stock the Red Sox have put into Sale as their #1 for the next six years, there’s no doubt in my mind he’ll be managed more closely and carefully, and his workout and recovery regimen will improve astronomically over the next few months. He’ll be back and he’ll be back stronger than ever.