MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-21

In week-20 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” many view the Los Angeles Dodgers – two-time World Series participants – as the best bet to make an appearance again this season. One reason for that belief is the Dodgers’ uncanny ability to win close games.

During the past week, the Dodgers twice demonstrated that ability, and two of the hits that powered their rallies are included in this week’s list of the week’s 10 most impactful.

Statistically, however, the week’s most impactful hit was authored by a member of a team that isn’t going anywhere.  It came off the bat of Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who on Sunday sank the Miami Marlins with a late home run.

Echoes of the developing pennant race are all over this week’s top 10 list. The Indians and Rays, two of the three teams embroiled in the AL wild-card race, both saw games turn on late, decisive hits. In Chicago, Kris Bryant helped the Cubs brace their suddenly wobbly status in the NL Central with his mid-week rescue of a game against the San Francisco Giants.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

10. Rafael Ortega, 39 percent

If the Los Angeles Dodgers face a serious challenge for their third straight National League pennant, it’s likely to come from the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. The Braves hold a six-game lead on the Washington Nationals, and last weekend they hosted the Dodgers in what might be a three-game preview of the NLCS.

Fittingly, the teams split the first two games. But Cody Bellinger’s three-run home run off Max Fried in the first inning gave the visitors a quick advantage. Fried, however, steadied, shutting out the Dodgers until leaving after the fifth with the Dodgers in front 3-1.

But in what amounted to a rare bullpen game for the Dodgers, Dave Roberts found himself trusting lightly used Dustin May to open the sixth. May retired the first batter he faced, but walked Brian McCann and surrendered a base hit to Matt Joyce. Then he hit Adeiny Hechavarria.

That brought Rafael Ortega to the plate. A journeyman signed as a free agent last winter and called up less than a week earlier, Ortega was making his first start in the Braves’ outfield. It had to that point been an unfortunate afternoon, Ortega delivering a pair of line drives both of which were caught for outs.

Nobody caught May’s 1-2 pitch, which Ortega hammered over the wall in right-center field for only the second home run of his career and – as you might guess – his first grand slam. The blast gave Atlanta a 5-3 lead and the Braves bullpen made it stand up.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

9. J. D. Davis, 39 percent

How they got there will be a subject of an upcoming entry. Suffice to say the Mets trailed Cleveland 3-2 entering the bottom of the 10th inning Wednesday. The visiting Indians also had ace closer Brad Hand ready to take the mound.

But one-run leads, even in extra innings, have been especially shaky this season, even more so with the red-hot Mets, who entered the game having won three straight.

So when Amed Rosario opened the 10th with a double into the right-center field gap, Mets fans anticipated a winning rally. Joe Panik bunted Rosario over to third, and after Hand intentionally walked Pete Alonso Michael Conforto came to the plate.

He grounded sharply to Santana, who disdained a play at the plate in favor of a potential inning-ending double play. But in recording the force at second, shortstop Francisco Lindor lost his grip and could not make the relay throw, allowing Rosario to score the tying run and giving Wilson Ramos a chance to extend the inning. Hand could not convert Ramos’s weak tap past the mound, sending Conforto to second.

Davis was due next. Needing a base hit, Davis produced precisely that, a line drive deep into left field that sent Conforto across with the winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

8. Corey Seager, 41 percent

The Toronto Blue Jays learned twice this week why the Los Angeles Dodgers are so hard to beat. After losing in extra innings on Tuesday, the Jays rode Jacob Waquespack’s one-hit pitching over seven innings to a 2-0 lead entering the bottom of the ninth inning Wednesday.

Then, as they so often do, the Dodgers awakened. Max Muncy started the comeback by walking against Derek Law. One out later, Cody Bellinger doubled down the right-field line, sending Muncy to third and depositing the tying run in scoring position.

That gave Corey Seager a chance to be the evening’s hero. He needed it: Coming off an injury-shortened 2018 season Seager entered the game batting in the .270s with an unremarkable 12 home runs, well off his 2016 or 2017 numbers.

As Seager stood in, the odds of a Dodger victory stood at just 29 percent. His line double tracing Bellinger’s of seconds earlier into the right-field corner chased both Muncy and Bellinger home, tying the game at 2-2.

Suddenly the Dodgers’ victory prospects measured 70 percent. They hit 100 percent seconds later when Enrique Hernandez completed the comeback with a base hit behind second base that sent Seager across the plate.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

6. Mallex Smith, 42 percent

Deep in a disappointing season, Seattle made a small stride toward recouping respectability this week during a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The M’s upset the Rays’ drive toward a wild card berth by winning on Monday, beat Tampa again on Tuesday but trailed 5-3 entering the ninth inning in search of a sweep.

Tampa turned to Emilio Pagan to secure the final three outs. Pagan has been problematic this season, entering the game with 14 saves but seven blown saves. This would not be one of his classic performances.

Things immediately went bad when Daniel Vogelbach homered on a 2-2 pitch. The Mariners still trailed by a run, but after recording the first out Pagan hit Jake Fraley with a pitch and surrendered a single to Dee Gordon that sent Frakes to third. Gordon compounded the situation by stealing second.

At that moment – one out in the ninth, Mariners trailing 5-4, tying and lead runners in scoring position — the odds of a successful Seattle comeback were 45 percent: plausible but not likely.  Pagan worked a 2-2 count on Smith, then fed him a fastball that Smith drove into the right-field corner on one hop. Frakes and Gordon both scored easily, putting Seattle ahead 6-5.

Pagan steadied, retiring the next two batters and stranding Smith at third. The one-run lead Seattle carried into the bottom of the ninth should have been enough to secure the sweep, but that wasn’t the case Wednesday. More on that momentarily.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

5. Max Muncy, 42 percent

Another week, another Dodger walk-off.

It was the 11th time already this season that a Dodger had delivered a walk-off hit, and the second time Muncy was that Dodger. He had walked off the San Diego Padres two weeks earlier. The victims this time were the Toronto Blue Jays, shut out by Walker Buehler and the Dodger pen until the ninth inning when Rowdy Tellez touched Kenley Jansen for a game-tying home run.

It was only Toronto’s sixth hit of the night.

Chris Taylor gave Los Angeles a chance to win in regulation when he opened the bottom of the ninth with a base hit. But Jason Adams coaxed a double-play grounder out of Matt Beaty, and the game went into extra innings.

In the top of the 10th, Pedro Baez worked around a two-out base on balls to Vlad Guerrero Jr., retiring Bo Bichette on a popup to end the inning. Jays manager Charley Montoya called on Tim Mayza to work the bottom of the 10th, and Mayza retired Enrique Hernandez before facing Muncy.

Mayza’s first pitch to Muncy was a ball. The second was fat enough for Muncy to send it into the bleachers deep in right-center field, a no-doubter that sealed another Dodger victory. One night later they would walk off the Jays once again, this time on a single by Hernandez.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

4. Kevin Kiermaier, 43 percent

This has been a week of cliff-hangers for the wild card chasing Rays.

On Sunday they rallied from a three-run deficit to haul down the Detroit Tigers; more on that presently.

One day later the Mariners took the first two games and then rallied on Smith’s triple in the top of the ninth to seize a 6-5 lead.

For most of the season, Mariners manager Scott Servais would have called on Roenis Elias for the save. But Elias was traded prior to the deadline, leaving Servais to turn to Matt Magill as his closer. Until Wednesday, that strategy had worked well: Magill had recorded two saves, a win and a hold for the Mariners.

Leading by one with a half inning to play, a visiting team has a 78 percent statistical chance of winning…strong but no sure thing. Kiermaier turned those odds immediately, ripping a 3-2 Magill pitch for a 432-foot game-tying home run. It helped turn Tampa’s week into a winning one, maintaining their position in the wild card race.

That shifted the odds to 65 percent in favor of the home town Rays, and Tampa took it from there. Willy Adames singled, Mike Brousseau doubled him to third, and after Magill intentionally walked Ji Man Choi he delivered a wild pitch that allowed Adames to cross the plate with the winning run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

3. Kris Bryant, 44 percent

Four innings into their Wednesday night game with the Giants sat Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs were cruising. They led 6-2, their seemingly unstoppable offense had scored twice in each of the first three innings, Yu Darvish was pitching well and they were at home, where they have been close to unbeatable this season.

Then things suddenly and abruptly changed. Darvish allowed three home run, the Giants scored seven times in the fifth and sixth innings, and the Cubs—trailing 11-10 through six innings – looked a lot less invincible in their home whites.

As has frequently been the case this season, the Cubs needed the heart of their order to step up for them…and it did.

Nick Castellanos, their trade deadline pickup from Detroit, opened the bottom of the eighth with a  base hit against Giants setup man Reyes Moronta. It was Castellanos’ fourth hit of the night’; he had already homered in the first inning, singled – driving in a run – in the second and singled again in the fourth.

Bryant was next up. To that point, his night had been as frustrating as Castellanos’s had been productive. He had fanned with runners at first and third in the second inning, then popped out with a runner on base in the fourth. But this time, on a  1-1 pitch, Bryant launched a Moronta pitch into the bleacher seats in left field for a home run that moved the Cubs back in front 12-11.  When Craig Kimbrel retired the Giants in order in the ninth, Bryant’s home run proved to be the game-winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

2. Ji-Man Choi, 45 percent

As enmeshed as the Tampa Bay Rays are in a heated wild card battle, they can’t afford any defeats at the hands of lower-tied clubs like the Detroit Tigers. That’s what made their situation Sunday so sensitive.

The Rays trailed the Tigers 4-1 through seven innings, and the two runs they got on Tommy Pham’s eighth-inning home run – while helpful—still left them a run short heading into the bottom of the ninth.

Against Tiger closer Joe Jimenez, Travis d’Arnaud opened the ninth with a ground ball in the hole between short and third. Tiger shortstop Gordon Beckham got there, but could not field the ball cleanly, and his throw was late. Tiger manager Ron Gardenhire challenged the call of ‘safe’ at first, but it was upheld and Beckham was charged with an error.

It was a break the Rays needed, and they seized it. Willy Adames walked, and one out later Mike Brousseau shot another unplayable grounder between short and third. This one was ruled a hit, loading the bases for Choi.

On the 1-1 pitch, Choi slapped a round ball past Jimenez and up the middle for a clean single. D’Arnaud scored easily, and when pinch-runner Kevin Kiermaier beat the throw home the Rays had their comeback 5-4 win that kept them in the center of their three-way fight with Oakland and Cleveland for the American League’s two wild-card spots.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-21

1. Nolan Arenado, 55 percent

For a contest between tail-end teams, Sunday’s ballgame in Denver between the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins sure packed a lot of twists and turns.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

In this contest between two of the National League’s three worst teams, the lead changed hands three times (with one tie) in the final three innings alone. Miami’s Harold Ramirez delivered three hits, and Rockies infielder Garrett Hampson eventually produced the winner, a 10th inning base hit.

Statistically, however, Arenado’s eighth-inning hit was the most pivotal because it turned a 3-2 Marlins lead into a 4-3 Rockies advantage.

Through the top of the eighth, Miami had never trailed…and that was despite Arenado’s first-inning home run that tied the game 1-1. Miami reliever Austin Brice retired two of the first three men he faced in the eighth – walking Charlie Blackmon in the interim. Four outs from a one-run loss, the Rockies’ chances measured just 27 percent.

Arenado’s two-run home run, on a 1-0 pitch, flipped that 27 percent to 82 percent. But the win wouldn’t be easy. The Marlins came back with three runs in the top of the ninth on three hits and a walk before the Rockies rallied to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth.

Hampson’s bases loaded, one out hit in the 10th settled the issue in Colorado’s favor.

Questions or comments about this week’s “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits?” Use the comment section below.