Washington Nationals: Should Stephen Strasburg Opt Out?

Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg has the ability to exercise an opt-out clause at the end of this season.  Should he use it?

Rarely does a hyped-up super prospect deliver to the level everyone expects. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg, however, has gone from hyped prospect to superstar pitcher even if he is overshadowed by another great in his own rotation (looking at you Mad Max).

Despite having Scott Boras as his agent, Strasburg and the Nationals agreed to a 7 year, $175M extension instead of testing free agency.

The extension did leave the option open for Strasburg to opt-out after the 3rd and 4th year.  Usually, multiple opt-outs are not used by the player (think contracts like Jason Heyward) because they cannot secure a larger deal than the one they already have.

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Strasburg represents one of the more interesting cases of should a player opt-out or not.  At the end of the season, Strasburg will have to decide whether to opt-out of the remaining 4 years, $100M of his contract.  Strasburg would be entering free agency as a 31-year-old (just turned 31 in July) and have a number of elite performances on his resume.

This season, Stephen Strasburg has turned in 165 innings with a 3.65 ERA, 28% K rate, and 50% GB rate good for 4.3 WAR, which would be the 9th highest mark among all pitchers in baseball.  Over the past 4 years, Strasburg has been consistently excellent and ranks as the 8th best pitcher in all of baseball, just behind fellow righty and soon to be free agent Gerrit Cole.

Strasburg to this point has been worth 35 WAR in his career and has been a top 10 pitcher in baseball despite being overlooked by Max Scherzer in his own rotation and a number of other Aces throughout baseball.

On most contending teams, he would be either the Guy or the Guy-B and have a huge impact in the rotation throughout the regular season and the postseason.  Healthwise, Strasburg does have a Tommy John Surgery years ago, has had other aches and pains, and of course, is a pitcher, so there is some injury risk.

That being said, Strasburg has been electric by innings pitched and should continue to thrive in a world where starters are throwing fewer innings than ever.

So by performance, what should Strasburg get on the open market?  Using FanGraphs’ contract estimator tool, you would expect a free agent Strasburg could earn $121M across a new four-year deal.  This assumes you view his true talent as a 4.3 WAR pitcher and that he’ll age normally.

If you think his true talent is higher or that he’ll age better/worse, that also affects the final calculus several million dollars in either direction.

Stephen Strasburg’s Contract Estimate — 4 yr / $121.4 M

Performance though matters less in free agency today as the brain trusts in MLB front offices focus on analytics, young players on league minimum deals, and finding guys they can develop as opposed to paying market rate.

Presumably, Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg would prefer to sign on with a contender with payroll flexibility.  The presence of Gerrit Cole, a younger and nominally better market option, creates competition.  At the same time, there will be teams who miss out on Cole and/or doesn’t want to commit as many dollars or years.  So what teams would be interested in making a deal with Strasburg besides the Washington Nationals?

Going around the league, the Yankees would absolutely be interested in a front line starter especially if their World Series pursuit gets derailed by poor pitching.  The Twins were in on Yu Darvish before he signed with the Cubs and they haven’t committed huge money to anyone.

The Padres are also ready to take a step forward and have shown a willingness to spend in free agency.  The White Sox rebuild is progressing along and they have money and Giolito – Strasburg could be a lethal 1-2 combination.  An interesting fit would be Arizona but they just got out from under Zack Greinke so probably not.

The best fit on paper, however, would be the Angels, who are in desperate need of a premier arm. Every year that passes is another wasted year of Mike Trout and another year closer to paying off Albert Pujols.

Walking away from a guaranteed $100M over 4 years would be a tough sell for just about anyone Stephen Strasburg included.  When you consider his performance, Strasburg is worth every bit of the projected $120M contract projected him above.  The risk is that a contract like that won’t be offered, then he settles for something less.

Given that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado waited for all off-season to get their deals, it would probably be the smarter decision for Strasburg to opt into the remaining 4/$100M.    Teams build in free agency less and less even for premier pieces like Strasburg.  For a guy who has already banked life-changing money, the potential for an extra $25M probably entice him to opt-out.

If Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg continues to pitch well through the deal, he’ll be in line for another strong 2-3 year pay-day when he is a free agent at 35.  Strasburg shouldn’t test the open market but it is a much closer decision than you would otherwise think.