2019 MLB season: who has the easiest September schedule?

Currently, teams will be looking to tighten their grips on their respective divisions. Who has the easiest September schedule this 2019 MLB season?

Entering play Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers lag three and one-half games out of the National League wild-card race. But the Brewers have at least one edge over the other wild card contenders this 2019 MLB season: a relatively easy September schedule.

The Brewers play 17 of their final 27 games against teams that will enter September with losing records. And eight of the other 10 will be against the two NL Central teams presently ahead of them, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs.

That leaves the Brewers with just two September games against plus-.500 teams that do not present head-to-head opportunities to make up ground; the Brewers host the Houston Astros Monday and Tuesday.

It’s a matter for speculation how much of an advantage the schedule will convey, and a very fair question whether it can swing the kind of three and one-half game edge the Brewers need to make up.

But this much is beyond doubt: when the calendar turns to Sept. 1, the Brewers will have one of the easiest schedules of any of the post-season contenders.

In the 27 games they will have remaining as of Sept. 1 – not counting a pair of late-August contests against the Cubs in Chicago – Milwaukee will face opponents that have a .478 average winning percentage. That figure is weighted to reflect the number of times the Brewers play each opponent. Among 13 teams in divisional or wild card contention – and not including the Dodgers, Yankees, and Astros, whose races are functionally decided — that’s the fourth easiest schedule remaining.

Here’s a look at the scheduling advantages – or disadvantages – in the NL East, NL Central, NL wild card, AL Central and AL wild-card races.

2019 MLB Season: Easiest September Schedule

NL East

As of Thursday, the Atlanta Braves hold a five and one-half game lead on Washington, with Philadelphia and New York trailing by double digits.

The Braves’ chances of retaining that lead are enhanced by their September schedule, which is actually slightly easier than even the Brewers. The biggest challenge is a seven-game head-to-head stretch against the Nationals, giving Washington a fighting chance to make up the current difference.

Beyond that, though, the advantages all swing to the Braves. They have eight games remaining against sub-.500 teams; the Nationals have just four.  They also have three games against the Mets, a team barely above .500 thus far that the Braves have dominated to date, winning 11 of 16.

Perhaps Atlanta’s largest advantage lays in its remaining inter-league schedule. As of Sept. 1, the Braves will have five games left against American League teams: one with the White Sox, two with Toronto and two with Kansas City. The Nationals face two remaining American League teams…and they are the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians. Both are deeply enmeshed in both the AL Central and wild card races. They also must navigate a three-game series against the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals.

The Braves’ September opponents have a collective .476 winning percentage. Washington’s September opponents have a .537 winning percentage.

2019 MLB Season: Easiest September Schedule

NL Central

When September arrives, the Brewers’ big problem obviously won’t be the schedule, but the deficit they have against the Cardinals and Cubs, which sits at five and one-half games for the moment. This race doesn’t quite come down to the Cubs vs. the Cardinals yet, but it’s trending in that direction.

That means the teams’ seven head-to-head matches over the 2019 MLB season‘s final 10 days are likely to hold the key to the outcome. The Cardinals travel to Chicago for four games on the penultimate weekend, then the Cubs return the favor for the three season-ending games.

Between the two divisional leaders, the schedule confers little advantage. The average winning percentage of St. Louis’ 27 September foes is .507, for the Cubs the comparable figure is .498.

Aside from their dozen games against the Cardinals and Brewers, the Cubs will not play a team with a plus-.500 record in September. They face Seattle twice, San Diego four times, Pittsburgh six times and Cincinnati for three.

The Cardinals need to navigate that series with Washington, and they also have three-late season games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who for the moment anyway are on the fringes of wild card viability.

But they also have three games left with Pittsburgh and three others with Colorado, both of them last-place teams.

2019 MLB Season: Easiest September Schedule

AL Central

The Minnesota Twins approach September with a three and one-half game lead on the Cleveland Indians. They also enter the month with the softest schedule of any of the post-season contenders.

The Twins do have to play a pair of head-to-head series with the Indians as well as three-game sets against the defending champion Boston Red Sox and the Nationals. Aside from that, though, the schedule maker could hardly have been more friendly. Minnesota has 15 other games: seven against the Kansas City Royals (.348), five against the Detroit Tigers (.298) and three against the White Sox (.455).

So even considering the dozen games they play against plus-.500 teams, the collective winning percentage of September Twins foes is a mere .449. And if the Indians haven’t caught Minnesota by the last of their six head-to-head meetings on Sept. 15, lookout. Considering only the 2019 MLB season’s final two weeks, the collective winning percentage of Twins opponents is just .369.

That will put a premium on Cleveland’s performance in those six remaining head-to-head matches. The average winning percentage of their September foes is precisely .500. That includes inter-league series against both the Nationals and Phillies, both in the final two weeks. While the Twins play the AL Central‘s three weak sisters 15 times in the final month, the Indians only face those three teams nine times.

2019 MLB Season: Easiest September Schedule

AL wild card

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Cleveland

Games against division leaders (6) Minnesota 6.

Games against wild card contenders (7) – Philadelphia 3, Washington 3, Tampa Bay 1.

Games against non-contenders (13) Chicago White Sox 7, Los Angeles Angels 3, Detroit 3.

Average winning percentage of September opponents — .500.

Oakland

Games against division leaders (5) Houston 4, New York Yankees 1.

Games against wild card contenders (0)

Games against non-contenders (21): Texas 6, Los Angeles Angels 5, Seattle 4, Kansas City 3, Detroit 3.

Average winning percentage of September opponents — .467.

Tampa Bay

Games against division leaders (4) New York Yankees 2, Los Angeles Dodgers 2.

Games against wild card contenders (5) Boston 4, Cleveland 1.

Games against non-contenders (16) – Toronto 7, Texas 3, Baltimore 3, Los Angeles Angels 3.

Average winning percentage of September opponents — .481.

Cleveland

Games against division leaders (6) Minnesota 6.

Games against wild card contenders (7) Washington 3, Philadelphia 3, Tampa Bay 1.

Games against non-contenders (12) – Chicago White Sox 7, Los Angeles Angels 3, Detroit 2.

Average winning percentage of September opponents — .508.

Boston

Games against division leaders (7) – New York Yankees 4, Minnesota 3.

Games against wild card contenders (6) – Tampa Bay 4, Philadelphia 2

Games against non-contenders (13) – Baltimore 3, Texas 3, San Francisco 3, Toronto 3, Los Angeles Angels 1.

Average winning percentage of September opponents — .514