MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-22

In week-22 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” the game is about winning. That’s shown in the standings, which are based on the percentage of a team’s victories measured against its losses.

At the micro-statistical level, however, winning isn’t always the only thing. Statistical probability measures the impact of each game-related event – such as each hit – outside the context of the broader result. In that world, hits are valued purely for how far they move the needle toward winning…not for the ensuing result

That’s how it’s possible – and actually is the case this week – for so many of the most pivotal hits to have been delivered in losing causes. There were four in fact, including three of the week’s biggest four plays. The impacts of those four hits did not ultimately determine the outcome of the games. But that has more to do with the incompetence of the hitter’s teammates than with the time and moment of the hit itself.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

T-9. D J LeMahieu, Ryan McMahon and Sean Rodriguez, 35 percent (100%)

Statistically, there are few distinctions among walk-off home runs by the home team. The odds of a victory before the event almost always approach 65 percent, the odds afterward are 100 percent, and that usually puts the value of the home run itself at 35 percent. It’s fairly cold math.

So when four such walk-offs occur in the same week under virtually identical scenarios, what results is a statistical tie in importance that cannot be parsed. That’s what occurred this week.

Harold Ramirez‘s walk-off against Cincinnati is a minor statistical exception that will be dealt with momentarily. As for the other three…

LeMahieu’s leadoff home run capped a Yankee comeback against the Oakland Athletics Saturday. He hit it off Lou Trivino on the first pitch of the bottom of the 11th after Aaron Judge’s eighth-inning home run tied the game.

McMahon’s two-run walk-off homer came in the bottom of the ninth inning of what at the time was a 1-1 tie with Boston. Jerry Blevins gave it up on a 1-1 pitch after Nolan Arenado had walked and Daniel Murphy struck out.

Rodriguez’s home run walked off the Pirates Monday and gave Philadelphia a 6-5 victory. Like LeMahieu, he was the first batter – in this case in the 11th inning. He hit it off, Michael Feliz. Rodriguez’s hit had the distinction of capping a comeback punctuated by the week’s most pivotal base hit. More on that hit below.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

8. Harold Ramirez, 36 percent

With each passing game, Harold Ramirez’ status as a rising star of the Miami Marlins becomes more apparent.

The rookie outfielder is batting .268 with nine home runs since debuting in May. That includes a .281 August in which he drove across 11 runs. Against the Cincinnati Reds Thursday, Ramirez’ presence was decisive.

Thanks almost entirely to Reds phenom Aristides Aquino, the game was a 3-3 tie entering extra innings. Aquino had produced a two-run home run in the first and followed that with a two-out, game-tying RBI single in the eighth.

Miami had a chance to win in the bottom of the ninth when Jorge Alfaro and Ramirez produced back-to-back one-out singles. But Reds reliever Michael Lorenzen fanned Isan Diaz and got Lewis Brinson to line out.

The Reds threatened in the 10th only to see that quelled on Joey Votto’s double-play grounder.

Leading off the 12th, Ramirez got his chance. He made the most of it, hitting a 1-1 pitch off Reds reliever Raisel Iglesias into the seats in left field for a walk-off winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

7. Kyle Schwarber, 40 percent

It was an odd week for the Cubs, who all season long have been one of baseball’s best home teams and one of its worst road teams. The Cubs defied that trend by completing a three-game home series sweep at the hands of the Nationals Sunday, then going on the road and sweeping the Mets at Citi Field.

Schwarber nearly prevented that Nationals sweep at Wrigley on Sunday with his game-tying home run in the eighth inning.

Washington led 5-3 at the time thanks largely to a three-run seventh inning highlighted by Asdrubal Cabrera’s two-RBI base hit. Fernando Rodney took over on the mound in the eighth and retired both Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant easily before walking Javier Baez.

Schwarber was the next batter. He worked the count to 2-0, looked for a heater, and got one he powered off the giant scoreboard behind the bleachers in left field. That shot tied the game 5-5.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, it was only enough to send the game into extra innings. In the 11th, Washington added two more runs off Tyler Chatwood and those two sealed a 7-5 victory completing the sweep.

It was only the second home series the Cubs had lost all season, and the first time they had been swept in a series of more than two games at home since Milwaukee did it in September of 2017.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

6. Mookie Betts, 40 percent

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-6 in 15 innings Friday night in a dramatic battle in Anaheim. The only reason the teams played that long was a three-run Angels comeback which, statistically if not on the scoreboard, overshadowed the actual winning hit.

We’ll deal with the comeback presently; for now, it’s time to focus on the game-winner.

The Angels had a chance to end the game in 11, but with runners on first and second and two out Darwinson Hernandez struck out Matt Thaiss to end the threat. Boston threatened in the 14th, moving the lead run to third base with two out before Trevor Cahill retired Christian Vazquez.

In the 15th Cahill got the first two Red Sox batters, then stared in at Betts, who hit the first pitch to him deep into the left-field seats. It put Boston on top 7-6 and Andrew Cashner closed the issue in the inning’s bottom half, working around a walk to Mike Trout by retiring Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols.

The reality of Pujols making the final out provided a bit of bitter irony to the conclusion given Pujols’ role in sending the game into extra innings. More on that in a moment.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

5. Anthony Rendon, 44 percent

The parallels between Boston’s win at Anaheim and Washington’s victory over Miami are striking. Both games ended 7-6, and in both the game-winning hit didn’t actually rate as the statistically most important one.

One difference: The Nationals didn’t require extra innings; they won in a ninth-inning walk-off. That’s the hit we’re focusing on now.

The wild card leading Nats trailed 6-5 entering the bottom of the ninth, threatening a run that had seen them win six of their previous seven games. Marlins manager Don Mattingly bypassed his regular closer, Sergio Romo, in favor of Ryne Stanek, but Stanek found himself in immediate trouble.

Nationals leadoff man Howie Kendrick grounded a 2-2 pitch into right field for a base hit, and Stanek followed that by walking Trea Turner. With the potential tying and winning runs on base, Nationals manager Dave Martinez ordered Gerardo Parra to sacrifice, but Parra popped up the bunt for the game’s first out.

In other circumstances, that might have been the break the Marlins needed. But not the way things are going in Miami this season. With NL batting leader Anthony Rendon at the plate, Stanek’s pitch escaped the grasp of catcher Jorge Alfaro for a passed ball that moved both runners into scoring position.

That gave Rendon a chance to be a hero – a role he is used to – and he drove a base hit into left field. Kendrick breezed home with the tying run and the speedy Turner slid home safely with the winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

3. Albert Pujols, 48 percent

That Pujols made the final out of the Angels’ 7-6 loss to Boston was ironic because until that instant, he had been the local hero. Pujols singled in the first inning, then singled again and drove home two runs in the fifth.

Even so, the Angels came to the bottom of the ninth trailing 4-2 and needing a quick turnaround to avoid a seventh loss in their last eight games. Facing Brandon Workman, they got some assistance when Workman opened the inning by walking Brian Goodwin on a 3-2 pitch and Mike Trout on four pitches.

Shohei Ohtani batted next, but his ground ball only forced Trout at second. With one out, Pujols stepped in and ripped a hanging curve into right field for a base hit. Goodwin scored easily, and when Mookie Betts boxed the pickup Ohtani raced all the way home with the tying run as Pujols pulled in to second.

That gave LA a chance to win the game in regulation, but they weren’t up to that challenge. Around two intentional walks, Workman struck out David Fletcher and then got Matt Thaiss on a ground ball to end the ninth in a 6-6 tie.

It would require six innings for Betts to erase his bungle with the game-winning home run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

2. Starlin Castro, 53 percent

As previously noted, Anthony Rendon’s single gave Washington a 7-6 victory over Miami Friday night. But it was hardly a straight-line outcome, and until Rendon’s hit it looked like Miami would probably hold on to win.

The Nationals took an early 3-1 lead and still led 5-4 entering the top of the ninth. Daniel Hudson was the choice of Nationals manager Dave Martinez to navigate the ninth, a requirement that has mystified Washington pitchers much of this season.

Since being acquired from Toronto, Hudson has been an alternative finisher for the Nats, working in 15 games and concluding eight of them, with one save. Friday night, he replaced Fernando Rodney, who had worked a perfect eighth inning, fanning two of the three Marlins he faced.

Martinez’s decision to lift Rodney for Hudson quickly turned into a game of bullpen roulette. The first Marlins batter, Harold Ramirez, reached on an infield single to third. The second, veteran Starlin Castro, turned around a Hudson pitch for a long home run over the center-field wall. In just a half dozen pitches, that one-run lead had evaporated..

Fortunately for the Nationals, they had an at-bat left and – as previously noted – Rendon made the most of it.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-22

1. Corey Dickerson, 60 percent

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Through seven innings of Monday’s Pirates-Phillies game at Citizens Bank Park, Pittsburgh held a 4-2 lead. Tasked with navigating the bottom of the eighth, Pirates reliever Richard Rodriguez got things off to a good start. He fanned Logan Morrison and Rhys Hoskins. At that moment the odds of a Pirate victory reached 90 percent.

The potential third out, however, was Bryce Harper, who has begun living up to his paycheck. Harper homered to right-center, narrowing the Phillies deficit to a single run. J. T. Realmuto followed with an infield single that Colin Moran could not make a play on at third.

Still, Pittsburgh’s victory prospects measured 76 percent as Dickerson came to the plate. Rodriguez got him in a 1-2 hole, then delivered a fastball that Dickerson sent over the center-field wall for a two-run home run. In giving Philadelphia a sudden 5-4 lead, the home run raised the home team’s victory prospects all the way to 84 percent.

Josh Bell’s ninth-inning home run tied the game and sent it in extra innings where, as previously noted, Sean Rodriguez would win it with a walk-off blast. But Rodriguez’s winner would never have occurred without the eighth inning heroics of Harper and, particularly, Dickerson.