Nationals: Anthony Rendon, always the Bridesmaid, never the MVP

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The MVP race is far from over

Then there’s Rendon: the criminally-under-recognized lunchpail third baseman who, in a potential walk year, steps ably into the void left by one of the most famous players in the game and leads his team back from a horrid 19-31 start. He steady hand at third and absurd consistency at the plate drives the car that should, by season’s end, park the Nationals in the top wildcard spot.

That, my friends, is a proper MVP narrative.

Don’t forget, the looming Wild Card game is likely to be a juicy one – the anticipation of which will keep Rendon top of mind until voters’ pencils are down.

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The dream scenario would be a matchup at home with the once-beloved Harper and the rival Phillies. The more likely opponent is the Cubs, with whom the Nats are flush with bones to pick.

It was the Cubs who won it all in 2016, aka “the Nats’ year.” It was the Cubs who eliminated the Nationals in a goofy back-and-forth ALDS game five in 2017, aka “the Nats’ year.” And it was the Cubs who daggered last year’s Nats club when David Bote walked off from a 3-run deficit with a pinch-hit, two-out grand slam.

With either of these matchups on the table, Rendon’s profile should rise.

Granted, we’ve yet to touch on who deserves to be the MVP of 2019, you know, based on their play. So let’s look at it:

Player A: .310/.411/.653, 43 HRs, 102 RBIs, 167 wRC+, 7.2 fWAR

Player B: .337/.417/.639, 32 HRs, 111 RBIs, 163 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR

Player C: .328/.423/.670, 42 HRs, 92 RBIs, 170 wRC+, 6.8 fWAR

Is that not a close race? Is that not anyone’s game? With a month to play?

Listen, the award is Bellinger’s to lose (Player A), but this race is far from done. Either Rendon (Player B) or Yelich (Player C) could easily hold the best line by year’s end. In fact, Bellinger’s the only one of these contenders who isn’t currently among the NL’s Top-3 in BA, OBP, and SLG. Let’s look there:

Batting Average: 1- Rendon, 2- Bryan Reynolds, 3- Yelich

On-Base Percentage: 1- Yelich, 2- Rendon, 3- Bellinger

Slugging Percentage: 1- Yelich, 2- Bellinger, 3- Rendon

Bellinger’s no slouch as a pure hitter – he ranks 10th in the NL with a .310 BA – but he’s no longer the runaway MVP.

As we know, narrative matters. In 1998, the race to 62 home runs put Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa in a head-to-head showdown for the NL MVP Award. The best player of that season was Barry Bonds, who led the league in fWAR (tied with McGwire) and bWAR.

Yet, neither Bonds nor McGwire made the playoffs that season, and Bonds was already a 3-time winner. The award went to Sosa.

Nevermind that he finished 1.4 fWAR behind McGwire and Bonds. Nevermind that he didn’t even make the Top-10 by bWAR. Nevermind that the actual leader in both fWAR and bWAR was a pitcher, Kevin Brown, who finished 16th in MVP voting (and 3rd for Cy Young!). Not that this matters for MVP Voting, but Sosa and the Cubs finished 1998 with the exact same number of playoff wins as the Cardinals and Giants: 0. Brown led the Padres to the World Series.

Voters are smarter these days, but it’s not as simple as checking the fWAR leaderboard. If it were, Rendon would have been in this discussion before. He finished 2017 second only to Giancarlo Stanton in fWAR, but 6th in the MVP vote. He finished 2018 second only to Yelich in fWAR, but 11th in the MVP vote. This year ought to be his highest finish yet. The only question is, how high?

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The talking heads don’t love him (looking at you, DeRo!), but Anthony Rendon is only 0.2 fWAR away from placing Top-2 in fWAR for the 3rd straight season. This year, he has the narrative. We’ll see if that gets him the votes.

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