Phillies: Picking up the bullpen pieces for 2020
While September call-ups are the remedy for some Phillies relief corps woes, general manager Matt Klentak is also auditioning these pitchers for next summer, but most will either be with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs or available as free agents for 2020.
Acquisitions and keepers:
The Philadelphia Phillies will add experienced setup men to solidify the pen, while they simultaneously anticipate picking up some healed pieces from 2019’s bullpen. So, expect Klentak to make a signing or trade for a prized fireman in November or December.
IN OTHER WORDS: “We have to pick and choose between good and a little bit better.” – John C. Maxwell
The determining factor for offseason priorities is money. Basically, retooling the pen is one of three preferences, but extending J.T. Realmuto beyond ’20 is at the top of the wish list because the red pinstripes gave up their top MiLB prospect and their young catcher for the All-Star with multiple 162s in mind.
Regarding the five-man staff, Klentak’s goal will likely be a two-slot starter behind Aaron Nola. And the GM’s plan will be to ink a dependable moundsman for a reasonable amount and length because the Fightins are more than one piece away from serious October baseball. Translation: many deals ahead!
As for the late innings, the front office will earn their pay exploring the trade market for the relief help needed. And the organization’s free-agent relievers will go from the IL (injured list) to being available. Usually, most execs won’t risk re-upping those arms even for a salary reduction.
While the offense is going to be similar next season, the Phils will make notable changes by moving dollars of arbitration-eligible players nearing free-agent status. And management will probably opt for more balance between the offense, the rotation and the relief corps.
Obviously, the hometown nine cannot consider an entirely new bullpen due to financial restraints and available talent through swaps. In other words, Hector Neris, Jose Alvarez, and Adam Morgan will reprise their pen roles from last April.
Concerning the other five bullpen seats, Klentak will acquire two setup men, and three relievers will earn the other spots in March. Some will be among the 40-man personnel and/or non-roster invitees to camp. Basically, three inexpensive arms will provide middle or long relief.
Returning hurlers:
According to the Phillies, they expect four acceptable outings out of every five and have expressed this specific requirement during multiple television interviews. But some fans focus instead on failure!
Of the trio for critical-inning situations, only Neris is still there to defend any advantage. And although a bad performance is frustrating, it amounts to Neris allowing a run due to a hanging splitter or his 95-mph heater catching too much of the plate. Currently, he has 46 acceptable outings out of 58: 79.3 percent.
Returning also for 2020, Alvarez has 45 satisfactory appearances out of 58: 77.6 percent. To date, he has a 3.12 ERA and Neris has a 3.09 ERA. The southpaw will be a free agent after the ’20 campaign.
During a second excellent summer out of the last three, Morgan didn’t have a rough appearance until May 4. He’s had 36 decent performances out of 40: 90 percent. However, he had three blowups to balloon his numbers up to a 3.94 ERA.
On the other hand, Robertson and Dominguez (probably) will have TJ surgery, and they’ll miss the entire 162 ahead. Presently, the red pinstripes will likely either sign or trade for a late-frame piece to handle difficult situations with victory in the balance.
Even if Klentak picks up two solid relievers, he must fill three openings in-house. So, Ranger Suarez, J.D. Hammer, Blake Parker, and Jared Hughes will be among the club’s hopefuls along with a handful of non-roster invitees during spring training: The GM is already evaluating these pitchers.
Expectations:
Of the free agents for the Phillies to bid on, lefty Will Smith, 30, has a 2.90 ERA for 57 performances over 59 innings with 31 saves out of 35 chances. That stated, his services will neither be inexpensive nor have minimal suitors.
Smith’s arsenal:
- Four-seam fastball: 424 for 47.6 percent
with a 92.9-mph average and a 95.7-mph high. - Slider: 381 for 42.8 percent.
- Curveball: 85 for 9.6 percent.
Other than a major inking, the front office will pursuit setup men through a swap, and it will involve dealing minor league stars. Or a package could include Cesar Hernandez or Maikel Franco as secondary pieces due to plentiful market alternatives to them. Translation: they won’t garner the interest to attract a stud reliever.
Realistically, the Phils will not re-up injured relievers Hunter, Neshek, and Nicasio but will invest the $23.8 million elsewhere. And trading Hernandez and Franco will roughly save another $17 million for $40.8 million total, but Realmuto’s extension plus acquisitions of a solid starter and fireman will easily account for those dollars.
Expect Scott Kingery to man second base and a hot-corner stopgap for the first half until Alec Bohm can earn –earn– an MLB promotion from Lehigh Valley after the All-Star break. As for the outfield, both corner slots have veterans, so centerfield is the only uncertain spot going into the winter.
When a franchise needs more than one piece like the Fightins, only an armchair GM inks a $200 million ace to pitch every fifth game for seven years — three beyond his prime. So, please temper your expectations and avoid what-if dreams leading to obvious disappointment.
Concerning unlimited spending, the Luxury Tax rate is 75 percent after exceeding the threshold by $40 million. And the Boston Red Sox achieved this situation due to their 2018 World Series title. Result: Kimbrel received $43 million from the Chicago Cubs, but what would that cost Boston with the penalty? Well, $75.25 million!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies statistical results toward 75-80 percent:
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*on the Phillies only. (Stats through Sept. 4.)
- Neris: 43 good, 3 so-so and 12 bad (2 blowups) out of 58 total for 79.3%
- Alvarez: 38 good (1 opener), 7 so-so and 13 bad (1 blowup) out of 58 total for 77.6%
- Morgan: 34 good, 2 so-so and 4 bad (3 blowups) out of 40 total for 90%
- Suarez: 20 good, 1 so-so and 6 bad (0 blowups) out of 27 total for 77.8%
- *Hughes: 7 good, 1 so-so and 3 bad (1 blowup) out of 11 total for 72.7%
- *Parker: 9 good, 1 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 14 total for 71.4%
- *Morin: 12 good, 0 so-so and 6 bad (1 blowup) out of 18 total for 66.7%
- Hammer: 14 good, 1 so-so and 5 bad (1 blowup) out of 20 total for 75%
- A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
- This is a running tally including inherited runners scoring.
Potential Phillies fireman’s statistical results toward 75-80 percent:
- Smith: 42 good, 3 so-so and 12 bad (0 blowups) out of 57 total for 79%
- A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
- This is not a running tally.
Phillies 2019 stats through Sept 4:
- Neris, 30: 58 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 3.09 ERA, 23 Saves, 2 Holds, 6 BS, a 3.89 FIP, a 3.49 xFIP, a 3.14 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 0.99 WHIP.
- Alvarez, 30: 58 Gms., 52 Inn., a 3.12 ERA, 1 Save, 11 Holds, a 4.02 FIP, a 4.21 xFIP, a 4.24 SIERA, a 0.6 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.
- Morgan, 29.5: 40 Gms., 29 2/3 Inn., a 3.94 ERA, 19 Holds, a 4.33 FIP, a 4.73 xFIP, a 4.09 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
- Suarez 24: 27 Gms., 39 Inn., a 3.69 ERA, 3 Holds, a 4.27 FIP, a 3.60 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.36 WHIP.
- Hammer, 25: 20 Gms., 19 Inn., a 3.79 ERA, a 5.11 FIP, a 6.16 xFIP, a 5.98 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.42 WHIP.
Free-agent’s 2019 stats through Sept 4:
- Smith, 30: 57 Gms., 59 Inn., a 2.90 ERA, 31 Saves, 4 BS, a 3.23 FIP, a 2.70 xFIP, a 2.68 SIERA, a 1.0 fWAR and a 1.02 WHIP.
Phillies 2019 stats (only) through Sept 4:
- Parker, 34: 14 Gms., 15 1/3 Inn., a 4.11 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP.
- Morin, 28: 18 Gms., 19 1/3 Inn., a 5.12 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
- Hughes, 34: 11 Gms., 9 Inn., a 6.00 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
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