Houston Astros: Has Justin Verlander just been lucky?
By Manny Gómez
Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander has been phenomenal all season. However, these stats might show that a little bit of luck might be involved.
In a previous piece, I compared Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander to Benjamin Button, a fictional character in a David Fincher movie who ages in reverse. Verlander’s most recent no-hitter prompted the comparison as it left me, and many others, wondering how it’s possible that a 36-year-old starting pitcher seems to be getting better.
How is it possible that after 15-years of wear and tear to one’s arm, throwing an average fastball of 95 mph, that you can lead the league in ERA (2.56), IP (193), WHIP (0.772), and H/9 (5.3)? I had to take a deep dive into the numbers and find an explanation to all of this.
The easy answer is that Verlander has had a little bit of luck on his side, but that’s just not fair and way too simple of a solution to this very complex question.
First, we looked at Verlander’s ERA (2.56) and compared it to his FIP (3.41). As you know, ERA is the average number of earned runs given up by a pitcher per nine innings pitched; and FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA would look like without their fielders.
The difference between Verlander’s ERA and FIP is -0.85, which believe it or not is the 6th highest difference in baseball. In other words, when removing fielder’s from the equation Verlander’s ERA is would actually be closer to 3.5 rather than 2.5.
That’s actually not that bad either. In MLB, a 3.41 FIP actually ranks 15th among qualified pitchers.
So, why is Justin Verlander’s FIP so much higher than his ERA? Let’s take a closer look at his numbers.