Houston Astros: Has Justin Verlander just been lucky?
Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander has been phenomenal all season. However, these stats might show that a little bit of luck might be involved.
In a previous piece, I compared Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander to Benjamin Button, a fictional character in a David Fincher movie who ages in reverse. Verlander’s most recent no-hitter prompted the comparison as it left me, and many others, wondering how it’s possible that a 36-year-old starting pitcher seems to be getting better.
How is it possible that after 15-years of wear and tear to one’s arm, throwing an average fastball of 95 mph, that you can lead the league in ERA (2.56), IP (193), WHIP (0.772), and H/9 (5.3)? I had to take a deep dive into the numbers and find an explanation to all of this.
The easy answer is that Verlander has had a little bit of luck on his side, but that’s just not fair and way too simple of a solution to this very complex question.
First, we looked at Verlander’s ERA (2.56) and compared it to his FIP (3.41). As you know, ERA is the average number of earned runs given up by a pitcher per nine innings pitched; and FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA would look like without their fielders.
The difference between Verlander’s ERA and FIP is -0.85, which believe it or not is the 6th highest difference in baseball. In other words, when removing fielder’s from the equation Verlander’s ERA is would actually be closer to 3.5 rather than 2.5.
That’s actually not that bad either. In MLB, a 3.41 FIP actually ranks 15th among qualified pitchers.
So, why is Justin Verlander’s FIP so much higher than his ERA? Let’s take a closer look at his numbers.
The Disparity Between FIP and ERA Explained
In calculating FIP you only take into consideration hitter outcomes that are out of the control of fielders. Home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts are all outcomes that don’t involve fielders.
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In Justin Verlander’s case, he checks off strikeouts, walks, and hit by pitches because he ranks FOURTH in MLB with an 11.98 SO/9, Leads the AL with a 1.63 BB/9, and has only plunked SIX hitters in close to 200 IP. However, when it comes to home runs, Verlander has the SEVENTH highest HR/9 (1.54) in MLB.
In fact, this season, Verlander has the 10th worst HardHit% (42.3%) in MLB. Pair that with his 47.3 FB% and it’s no surprise that he has the THIRD highest home run total of any pitcher in MLB. This has resulted in him giving up 33 home runs in 2019 alone, the most he ever has before.
What’s more, of the 57 runs scored on Verlander this year, at least 33 (or 58%) of them have come via home runs. Take into consideration that some of these home runs may have occurred with runners on base and that number is much higher.
Conversely, his ERA is so much lower than his FIP because he happens to play on one of the best fielding teams in MLB.
To check this, I looked at how many runs the Houston Astros saved this season and it turns out they have a stellar 80 DRS this season, that’s tops in the AL and fourth-best in MLB. In terms of RngR (Range Runs), the Houston Astros trail only the Minnesota Twins in the AL and rank FOURTH best in all of baseball.
Next. Rays call up second baseman Kean Wong. dark
Finally, give Verlander credit where credit is due. At the age of 36, he continues to mow hitters down and understands how to play to his team’s strengths. Trust the guys behind you to make the plays and understand that solo home runs here and there won’t kill you at the end of the day.