What Happened to Consistent Relief Pitching in the MLB?
In Major League Baseball’s modern landscape, pitchers are throwing the ball harder, while hitters are hitting them even further. The result? More runs.
Since 2014, where teams averaged their fewest runs per game since 1981 at 4.07, the numbers have crept back up to 4.87 runs/game in 2019 (Baseball Reference).
The media has focused on external factors such as juiced balls being possible reasons for this sudden rise in offense in the past five years. However, there is another trend that seems to be tipping the scale: the decline of dependable relief pitching.
It is no secret that relief pitching has become just as, if not more, important as starting pitching in the past decade. Of course, teams across the league have begun adopting the “opener” strategy invented by Kevin Cash and the Rays, but the league has been trending towards reliever dependence long before that.
Since 2014, the average innings pitched per game started has steadily decreased from 6.0 to 5.3 in 2019 (Baseball Reference). This means relievers are getting into games earlier, and impacting the game longer.
So, this should also mean the effective relievers are enjoying long, lucrative MLB careers, right? Not necessarily.
In the modern MLB landscape, elite relief pitchers come and go. While some of the league’s top closers have longevity, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find relievers who are consistently effective on the MLB level.
In fact, there have been 43 different relief pitchers to make an all star team since 2014 (MLB.com).
That’s a lot of variety.
To highlight this phenomenon, let’s take a look at some relievers who have failed to replicate their dominance in recent years.
The most publicized disappointment of this year has been Edwin Diaz. Diaz had one of the most dominant seasons of all time as the Mariner’s closer in 2018. He finished with 57 saves and an AL Reliever of the Year award.
However, in 2019, Diaz has drastically regressed in his first season with the New York Mets.
His FIP has skyrocketed from 1.61 in 2018 to a lackluster 4.36 this season. Furthermore, his ERA+ has plummeted from 208 to a measly 77 in 2019 (Baseball Reference).
Diaz has become the victim of intense scrutiny by the New York media, as analysts and fans alike are searching for answers for his sudden ineffectiveness.
Fortunately for Diaz, he is only 25 years old and has maintained the closer job despite his struggles.
The same cannot be said for Blake Treinen. The 31-year-old closer for the A’s had an incredible 2018, posting a 531 ERA+ and 1.82 FIP with 38 saves. He was an all star and set career-bests in virtually every category.
However, Treinen has failed to replicate his 2018 campaign. After spending some time on the IL with shoulder soreness, Treinen has posted a 94 ERA+ and 4.95 FIP, and lost the closer job to Liam Hendriks. His BB/9 also doubled from 2.4 to 5.1 (Baseball Reference).
The future will tell whether Treinen’s decline in 2019 was due to issues with his right shoulder, or the increased wear and tear that more and more MLB relievers are experiencing every year.
Jeremy Jeffress is another perplexing example of an all star reliever who has fallen from grace in 2019.
Since establishing himself as an effective reliever in 2014, Jeffress has experienced an increasingly heavy workload each year. He has tossed over 50 innings in each of the following seasons.
He reached a new level in 2018, recording a 320 ERA+ and 2.78 FIP to go along with 15 saves in 76.2 IP.
However, in 2019, like Diaz and Treinen, he has struggled immensely. His 90 ERA+ and 3.97 FIP in 52.0 innings of work has led him to be released by the Brewers on Monday.
Diaz, Treinen, and Jeffress are just a few contemporary examples, but this trend has become more and more normal each season. That is why many GMs are reluctant to give high-quality relievers like Craig Kimbrel large contracts.
Many relievers who earned large paydays, such as Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon, and Greg Holland, have failed to make those contracts worth while.
So why are some of the game’s top relievers unable to find consistent success in 2019? There are a few possible explanations.
- Increased workload has led to quicker wear and tear
- Increased average velocity has put more stress on pitchers arms and led to more injuries
- A mix of bad luck and better scouting
In reality, it is probably a mix of all three. It is almost a requirement to throw 95+ mph as a high quality reliever nowadays. This, when combined with the increasing workload of relievers, has left relievers vulnerable to chronic arm injuries.
Regardless of which best explains this phenomenon, it is undeniable to this has become a league-wide epidemic. With the MLB being a relief pitching dominant league, this problem does not appear to be going anywhere.
For Edwin Diaz, Blake Treinen and Jeremy Jeffress, time will tell what their future holds. They possess all the tools to rebound and return to dominance. But right now, they are in danger of losing relevancy.