The Chicago Cubs have one remaining hope: small sample size
By TC Zencka
The 2019 Chicago Cubs are underperforming, and there’s blame to parcel out to each aspect of the roster. Let’s make the rounds.
For the second straight season, the Chicago Cubs are on the verge of September collapse.
They managed to survive atop the NL Central until game 163 in 2018. A lackluster performance against the Brewers lost them the Central. An even worse offensive output against the Rockies made them Wild Card losers.
This season, that feels like a best-case scenario. The Central crown is drifting out of reach as the Cardinals turned back the clock and stormed past the Cubs like in the old days. The Redbirds are now 4.5 games up on Chicago, with Fangraphs assigning a 78.8% chance to stay there.
That 21.2% of Cubbie hope can be attributed to a difficult upcoming schedule for the Cardinals. In the final three weeks, they take on three pseudo-contenders in the Brewers, Nationals, and Diamondbacks, though they has a winning record against all three clubs.
The Brewers and Nationals, however, have shown an inclination to shame spiral, as do the Cubs, and the Cardinals get them at home. The Diamondbacks might pose a challenge on the road, but that’s not until the final week of the season, and the Cubs very well may have gift-wrapped the division by then.
If the Cubs are going to turn things around, they have to stay close enough to capitalize on seven head-to-head matchups in the final ten games. And then they’ll have to capitalize on those matchups.
Nothing about this Cubs team (or, really, any Cubs team since 2016) suggests they’ll be able to turn this around. Nothing about this Cardinals team suggests they’re ready to fold.
The bigger question for the Cubs is whether they hold onto Wild Card position.
A rough week for the Nationals kept the possibility of hosting the Wild Card game alive, but the walls are closing in now as the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Phillies have inched closer to the Cubs than the Cubs are to catching the Cardinals.
Theo Epstein and Joe Maddon will have questions to answer when the season is out more so than usual, though the GM and manager are always the ones left holding the bag.
Earned or not, the offensive core of Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Willson Contreras are beginning to fade in viability. It’s not a permanent stain, never will be after 2016, but it’s been a long time now since they’ve won a big game and the core players have to take some of the responsibility.
At the trade deadline, we thought the missing piece was a big bat at the top of the order. Enter Nicholas Castellanos, who has been more than the Cubs could have hoped for – and it hasn’t made a difference.
Frankly, in a disappointing season like this one, it’s easy to look for a single scapegoat, a major injury, a colossal disappointment, but it’s just as likely that small declines have made this team much worse than anyone expected.
Clearly, there’s no one missing piece to fix these Chicago Cubs. Not with so many players underperforming. In the aggregate, declines at a couple of key positions explain much of the Chicago Cubs underwhelming 2019 season.