The Chicago Cubs have one remaining hope: small sample size

2019 Chicago Cubs: Underperformers

Starting Pitchers

The Chicago Cubs rotation has been decent. They’ve used only 8 different arms, and mainstays Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Cole Hamels each have made at least 24 starts. In any given year, any one of these give could put up the numbers to be a front-line guy.

None of them have.

Hendricks gets the prize for “closest to acedom” in 2019. The Ivy Leaguer is 9-9 with a 3.39 ERA/3.84 FIP/4.36 xFIP across 154 innings, good for 3.1 fWAR. He’s on track to land pretty near his career norms. But his career norms peg him as something closer to a #2 or #3 starter than to an ace, fun as the control artist is to root for.

Darvish has been the most two-faced of the bunch. The 33-year-old might be the most unique starter in the game. He throws heat, maintains high k-levels, throws something close to ten different pitches, and yet, never puts together a full season at the level his stuff dictates.

By fWAR, his first two seasons stateside put him close to ace level: 4.7 fWAR in 2012 and 4.6 fWAR in 2013 earned him a 9th and 2nd place finish for Cy Young. But since then, he’s more bark than bite.

His first half continued the devolution of his first year in Chicago: 2-4 in 18 starts with a 5.01 ERA. In the second half, he’s made good on the promise of his contract. A 2.69 ERA in 10 starts has turned him, improbably, into the most reliable arms in the Cubs rotation. In both a testament to his performance and the overall volatility of the Cubs, Darvish is currently a leading candidate to start the Wild Card game, should they make it there.

If the Cubs rotation were a relegation league, Lester would be the one on his way out. The $20MM owed him in 2020 means Lester and the Cubs have at least one more season as companions, however.

Poor stretches from Lester aren’t uncommon, but he usually hits a groove or two at some point during the season to wipe away some of those bad feelings. He’s sliding of late and running out of time to right the ship. He’s at 2.3 fWAR for the season, but only 1.5 WAR by baseball-reference. In total, Lester’s season will look a lot different if he shoves his final four turns.

But as of now, Lester’s 2019 is just a little bit worse than they expected. Than they needed.

He’s in line to start the final game of the season. Most years you’d feel pretty good about that as a Chicago Cubs fan. Not in 2019.