Phillies: Dollars and sense for 2020

Although expensive free agents excite the Phillies faithful, filling only one need will not get the franchise to the World Series, and general manager Matt Klentak will employ his financial resources to acquire two to four pieces instead.

Offseason expectations:   

For the Philadelphia Phillies, ’20 is about addressing the rotation and bullpen with two major hurlers and two secondary additions. Based on this 162, though, some fans could be forming doubts about next summer before Klentak constructs the roster, while others will hope for competitive improvements.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Confidence isn’t optimism or pessimism, and it’s not a character attribute. It’s the expectation of a positive outcome.” – Rosabeth Moss Kanter

With multiple holes to plug, Klentak can’t commit the financial lion’s share to one player. He has four priorities on the front burner: He must extend J.T. Realmuto, fill two rotation slots, and pick up two late-inning fire man. Not easy but not impossible!

Unfortunately, many supporters expect the GM to cover every need, real or perceived. And he should have backup plans for any eventuality despite the limitations of a 40-man roster. Additionally, they assume the players Klentak needs are available easily and immediately.

Regarding organizational thinking, they must contend with competitors overpaying for a targeted star and franchises with sky-high demands. Plus the faithful sometimes expect a player who either doesn’t exist or isn’t available. But keep in mind, lack of success on this will be the exec’s fault in their eyes.

To formulate a proposal, Klentak must determine his spending limits and the value of free agents under consideration. From there, he prioritizes his needs and puts his blueprint in motion to achieve his objectives or his secondary alternatives.

While many locals are anticipating an improved pitching staff, Klentak’s top priority is an extension for Realmuto. However, the top MLB catcher wants Buster Posey money: roughly $19 million per season. So this could be move one in November because the GM dealt his best prospect and young receiver for Realmuto.

Other than Realmuto, Klentak will pursuit two starters and two setup men for the pen. But while both relievers will probably come from other clubs, two rotation southpaws here now may already be auditioning for the fourth or fifth rung. So, can management add three important arms to 2020’s mix?

Batterymates:       

Because Realmuto is two years older than Posey was at the beginning of his nine-campaign pact, the Phillies will work within a seven-summer framework for $130-133 million. Basically, $19 million per. But the higher-ups may propose additional dollars through more years to lower the AAV (average annual value).

While learning the pitchers and his defensive teammates in the first half, Realmuto’s backstop skills received praise: his quick and accurate arm, his ball blocking, his game calling, and his pitch framing. Meanwhile, he has caught 41 stealing out of 86: 47.7 percent.

The second half is a better indicator of his hitting ability because of everything new he absorbed before the All-Star break. Currently, he’ll average .280 for this 162 and the next, but he’s on pace for 26 homers and 90 RBIs. Plus he’ll probably launch 30 bombs with 100 RBIs without 2020’s offense being secondary for three months.

For a two-slot moundsman, $15 million is realistic, and right-hander Jake Odorizzi, 29, of the Minnesota Twins is presently earning $9.5 million for his final arbitration 162. But while the Twins could give him a QO (qualifying offer) for $17.9 million, he’ll likely receive a five-season pact through free agency.

For 2019, he’s 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA for 142 frames over 27 starts. But the National League equivalent is 0.50 lower: a 3.11 ERA. And pitchers changing leagues have the advantage over hitters doing the same. That stated, the red pinstripes need a two-slot arm more than a lefty.

Odorizzi’s arsenal:

• Four-seam fastball: 869 for 33.6 percent
  with a 93-mph average and a 95.5-mph high.
• Sinker: 545 for 21.1 percent.
• Splitter: 415 for 16.1 percent.
• Slider: 276 for 10.7 percent.
• Cutter: 202 for 7.8 percent.
• Curveball: 177 for 6.9 percent.

Bullpen balancing: 

For the back end of the Phillies pen, left-hander Will Smith is probably in the $10-11 million range after making $4.23 million for his final arbitration season. But would the San Francisco Giants extend him a QO of $17.9 million? Well, they probably won’t risk the chance he’d accept a $13.67 million raise. Pure speculation: no!

The 30-year-old Smith has a 3.00 ERA with 32 saves in 36 opportunities over 60 innings during his 58 appearances. But being a portsider would provide an advantage the Fightins certainly didn’t have in ’19. However, he’s the premier closer on the free-agent market.

Smith’s arsenal:

• Four-seam fastball: 450 for 47.9 percent
  with a 93-mph average and a 95.7-mph high.
• Slider: 401 for 42.7 percent.
• Curveball: 89 for 9.5 percent.

As for a second late-frame hurler, righty Mychal Givens, 29, of the Baltimore Orioles has two campaigns of team control remaining and would likely work the seventh inning here. But he has a 3.95 ERA with 11 saves during his 50 outings for 54 2/3  frames.

Given’s arsenal:

• Four-seam fastball: 647 for 71.4 percent
  with a 95.7-mph average and a 99.5-mph high.
• Slider: 140 for 15.5 percent.
• Changeup: 119 for 13.1 percent.

Financially, he’s earning $2.15 million and an increase to $3 million would be a fair raise considering his similar numbers for 2018. Plus Klentak had interest in the flamethrower last July. So, he could be the third option behind Smith and Hector Neris.

Bottom line: 

When the Phillies deduct three relievers ($24.9 million), a second baseman ($7.8 million), a third sacker ($5.2 million), an injury-plagued starter ($1 million), and the players ($7.6 million) added for the final two months of ’19, they drop from $197.8 million AAV to $150.3 million AAV. For ’20, however, the Luxury Tax limit is $208 million.

Firstly, allowing $2 million for payroll increases on the 40-man roster, Klentak will have $56.3 million before reaching the competitive-balance threshold. And if he can appropriate $19 million AAV for Realmuto, $15 million AAV for Odorizzi, $10.5 million AAV for Smith, and $3 million AAV for Givens, his total would be $47.5 million.

An additional wrinkle is the $2 million buyout for Jason Vargas or exercising his $8 million club option for 2020, but Klentak could re-up Drew Smyly for $6 million (plus Vargas’ buyout) to reach the same $8 million commitment. However, the GM could creatively restructure that $8 million and the $55.5 million overall.

Concerning the regulars, Scott Kingery would take over second base, and a stopgap would handle the hot corner until Alec Bohm earns advancement next July. Meanwhile, the rotation would have Nola (1), Odorizzi (2), Arrieta (3), and Vargas or Smyly (5). Zach Eflin or Vince Velasquez would be the fourth starter.

For the relief corps, Neris, Smith, and Givens would man the critical innings, while Jose Alvarez, Adam Morgan and Victor Arano will return as well. The final two spots would be Pivetta, Eflin or Velasquez, but Dominguez could be available if he avoids Tommy John surgery.

Granted, other possibilities exist and the Phils may take another course. But what is this group of Realmuto, Odorizzi, Smith, Givens, and Vargas or Smyly? Workable options!