Call to the pen
Fansided

Phillies: What’s Up With Aaron Nola?

By CJ Luther

ATLANTA, GA JULY 02: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) looks out from the dugout after pitching 8 scoreless innings during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies on July 2nd, 2019 at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA JULY 02: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) looks out from the dugout after pitching 8 scoreless innings during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies on July 2nd, 2019 at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
3 of 5
Next
Phillies
(Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images) /

Issues With the Curve

Aaron Nola owns one of the most effective curveballs in the game. In 2018, Nola’s deuce ranked third in pitch value among all curveballs, according to Fangraphs. As productive as the pitch is, it’s not nearly as fun to talk about as it is to watch:

In his past four starts, hitters have been getting to the pitch more than usual. In that span, they’ve managed a .361 xwOBA against it, compared to only .256 xwOBA before. How? Again, it comes down to location, as we can see a difference in where Nola has been spotting his hook.

Nola likes to bury his curveball down-and-in for lefties and down-and-away from righties. The above whiff from Daniel Murphy is an extreme case of the technique that nonetheless shows how deceitful the pitch can be when thrown this way. Recently, Nola has still been keeping his curveball low but has spread it out across the bottom of the zone.

With the launch angle revolution taking ahold of the game, batters are having an easier time getting to pitches low in the zone. Swings have more of an “upper-cut” aspect to them than they used to, enabling hitters to lift low pitches into the air. Low curveballs can still be effective if they’re sequenced properly or tunneled with a high-spin, up-in-the-zone fastball.

But, because Nola’s fastball is living more over the plate, his curveball doesn’t fool hitters like it’s supposed to. They’re swinging at it more often than they were before, and have been able to do more damage with it.

Nola’s curveball hasn’t differed in velocity, spin rate, or release point. It’s being thrown across the bottom of the zone, which when combined with a fastball living in the heart of the strike zone, has made it easier to hit.

When everything sits over the middle, hitters don’t have to worry about pitches that paint the corners of the zone. They’ll sit tight and wait for pitches they can get solid contact on. Nola’s been serving up pitches like that frequently over the course of this stretch, which is unlike his usual self.

Home/Philadelphia Phillies