Which MLB GM is on the chopping block?
Dave Dombrowski’s removal by the Boston Red Sox serves as a reminder that this is the time when those jobs are most in jeopardy. Which MLB GM might be next?
When the Boston Red Sox this week fired Dave Dombrowski as president of baseball operations, it caught many by surprise. Less than a year ago, Dombrowski had led the team to a World Series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The move reveals the truly shaky nature of front office management positions. In that respect, 2019 has been an unusual season, since Dombrowski’s departure marked the first removal of any MLB GM or field manager since the season’s start.
It almost certainly won’t be the last. Since the end of the 2014 season, an average of six MLB GM or equivalent positions have changed annually.
By that standard, the post-2018 turnover — which saw new leadership for the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Orioles — was actually a relatively calm winter. Compare that to the craziness that followed the 2016 season, which saw new leadership teams installed in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Toronto, Cleveland, Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland, and Minnesota.
Which current front office leaders are most likely to follow Dombrowski to the axeman this fall? The victims are likely to share several characteristics. They will probably head up under-performing teams — preferably chronically under-performing ones – they will be at or close to the end of their working agreement, and they’ll be working for an ownership team that did not hire them.
With those terms of jeopardy in mind, several current GMs or team presidents loom as potentially endangered, threatened or questionable. Here’s a look at some of those executives whose job security might be in trouble.
Who’s the Next MLB GM to go?
Mike Hill, Miami Marlins
Hill was Marlins GM from 2008 to 2013, when he was named president of baseball operations.
Like many GM-level personnel, specifics of his arrangement are not public record. But he is believed to be under contract through the 2020 season at approximately $2 million per season.
Hill’s biggest problem, obviously, is that he is not Derek Jeter’s guy. Jeter and principal owner Bruce Sherman, who purchased the Marlins following the 2017 season, inherited Hill’s multi-year deal. While it’s always possible that Jeter and Hill have since bonded, the greater likelihood is that Jeter wants to install his own man in the MLB GM chair.
The only question, then, is whether the Marlins are willing to eat the remaining $2 million owed to Hill.
The Marlins haven’t had a winning season since 2010, and are a solid bet to have their worst season since the cannibalism of 1998 in 2019. Since Hill resumed direct control of front office management in 2016, the Marlins have averaged 92 losses per season.
It would be an easy matter to blame under-capitalization for the Marlins’ ongoing failure to compete. But in an era when other relatively under-capitalized teams – the Athletics and Rays to name two — have competed well, it’s an open question whether Jeter and Sherman will have much patience with that rationalization.
Who’s the Next MLB GM to go?
Jeff Bridich, Colorado Rockies
Bridich’s contract with the Rockies is a closely guarded secret. Neither the terms nor duration have ever been specified.
That makes it impossible to know what kind of contractual leverage Bridich might have. At the same time, it suggests that he’s “serving at the pleasure” of the Monfort Brothers, Rockies owners, and could be removed basically at any time.
Given Colorado’s disappointing 60-84 record and last place standing in the NL West, that time could be soon.
Bridich’s 2019 off-season was not inspiring. On the plus side, he did sign the franchise’s face, Nolan Arenado, to an 8-year extension. Aside from that, however, his signings were not helpful: Daniel Murphy, Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds all proved to be net negatives. Nor has the farm system proved helpful. It’s two biggest names, Raimel Tapia and Garrett Hampson, both have disappointed.
To the extent it helps him, Bridich is close to a Rockies lifer. A Harvard graduate, he joined the team’s front office in 2004 – he was 27 at the time – serving in various capacities including director of baseball operations. When Dan O’Dowd retired following the 2014 season, Bridch succeeded his former boss.
Since then the Rockies have twice qualified for post-season play, losing the wild card game to Arizona in 2017 and being swept in the division series by Milwaukee in 2018. Nevertheless, the Rockies are a sub-.500 team, 381-412, during Bridich’s tenure.
So Bridich’s security really hangs on several unknowables: How satisfied are the Monforts with what the team has done, to what extent do they hold Bridich responsible for the 2019 failures, and what, if anything, would it cost them to get rid of him?
Who’s the Next MLB GM to go?
Jerry DiPoto, Seattle Mariners
DiPoto makes himself such a front-and-center figure that his failures loom as large as his successes. There have been some successes, notably an 89-73 finish and playoff run in 2018. But when the team responds to all those moves by spectacularly tanking, as has been the case this season, DiPoto’s status has to be questioned.
Like Bridich, the specifics of DiPoto’s working agreement are not public. Signed prior to the 2016 season, it has been reported that he signed a multi-year a extension with team owner John Stanton and president Kevin Mather in July of 2018, but the terms and length of the extension have not been reported.
DiPoto’s re-working of the Mariners roster has certainly been extensive. He famously traded Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets, unloaded Jean Segura one season after signing him to a five-year deal, and let Nelson Cruz walk away via free agency.
The returns, however, have not been productive. DiPoto acquired 16 players that have put in major league time with the Mariners during 2019, but the net impact of those 16 has been -2.6 games measured by Wins Above Average. His most notable free agent signees were Edwin Encarnacion – since traded away — and Yusei Kikuchi, a veteran of the Japanese League who is 6-9 with a 5.24 ERA in 29 starts.
Who’s the Next MLB GM to go?
Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals
Hired to run the Royals following the 2005 season, Moore has brought the franchise a 2015 World Series victory plus the 2014 American League pennant. But the team has fallen into disrepair since that 2015 victory, including a 104-loss season 2018 and a looming 100-loss season this year.
The real question for Moore, of course, is his relationship with the club’s prospective owner, John Sherman, whose purchase of the club from David Glass – the only owner Moore has ever worked for – cannot be known.
Moore is believed to be working on a contract that expires at the end of the 2020 season, so if Sherman decides he wants his own man to head up the team’s front office, the cost of replacing Moore would not be prohibitive.
As would be expected given the pending nature of Sherman’s purchase – which still must be approved by other club owners – he has not made any public comments on the status of Moore or other front office personnel.
At 52, Moore has plenty of years left if Sherman wants to utilize them. He also is a Kansas native, although he came to Kansas City following a stint as an assistant general manager for the Atlanta Braves.
Who’s the Next MLB GM to go?
Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers
When Ray Davis and Bob Simpson purchased the Rangers in 200, they retained Daniels, who had been an MLB GM since 2006. At the time it was an obvious decision; the Rangers went to the World Series that season, returned in 201, and made five post-season appearances through 2016.
The recent past has not been nearly as rewarding. Since 2017, the Rangers have just a .463 winning percentage with no finishes closer than 20 games behind the AL West leader.
Beyond that, while Daniels was reported to have signed a multi-year extension during the 2018 season, it’s not a matter of record how much length or money remains on that deal. Unless that contract has several years to go, Daniels could be in trouble.
The Rangers have significantly reduced payroll since peaking at $165 million in 2017. Daniels was working on a $118 million payroll this season, a fact that may reduce expectations sufficiently to make the team’s performance satisfactory.
The problem is that, as far as fans are concerned, Daniels is fielding a less interesting product. Attendance has fallen annually since 2016, from more than 33,400 that year to just 25,000 in 2019. The Rangers are moving into a new ballpark for the 2020 season, and it’s not out of the question that ownership may be interested in fielding a club attractive enough to actually attract fans.
The question is whether they will trust Daniels to continue to spark that interest.
Who’s the Next MLB GM to go?
Billy Eppler, Los Angeles Angels
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Eppler was hired prior to the 2016 season, having come to owner Arturo Moreno’s attention as an assistant GM for the New York Yankees.
His tenure has produced plenty of headlines, notably with the signing of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. He also signed Mike Trout to a 12-year extension, effectively taking the game’s best player off the market forever.
What he hasn’t done is win; the Angels are on their way to a fourth consecutive losing season under his direction.
Eppler’s position is made more precarious by the presence of the Dodgers across town, a dominant force whose ongoing success renders the Angels a decided second team.
To the extent it provides security, Moreno did exercise an option last month extending Eppler’s contract through 2020. Presumably, Moreno wouldn’t have done that if he intended to dump Eppler at season’s end.
On the other hand, skeptics may note that Moreno merely picked up Eppler’s existing 2020 option; he offered nothing in the way of an extension. Owners have been known to eat a year’s salary in order to dump an MLB GM; the Red Sox just did that with Dombrowski, who at the time of his removal was signed as president through 2020.
Next. Congrats, Boston Red Sox: You're the villains now. dark
Moreno’s willingness to pick up the option suggests that Eppler is safe at least through the short term. But the fact that it hardly constitutes a vote of confidence means Eppler needs to enjoy some quick success if he is to escape close contact with the hot seat.