2019 MLB season: AL CY Young Awards Predictions
The AL Cy Young race has been dominated by the few greats, while the NL has been a far wider field. These three pitchers are the best candidates for this hardware come November.
The AL’s elite also could possibly dominate awards season, as the Houston Astros represent the most qualified candidates for the AL Cy Young award. Those candidates come in the form of Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. However, there are a few other names deeply entrenched in the battle for the third spot.
Here are some honorable mentions. They deserve recognition, but in all likelihood will not be close to the third spot on the ballot.
Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers
Sporting a 6.5 WAR, Lance Lynn has revitalized a career that seemed to be stagnated upon his departure from St. Louis and arrival in the Twin Cities. However, a brief stint on the Yankees to cap off 2018 was able to be parlayed into a three-year contract worth $30 million with the Texas Rangers.
Lynn currently has amounted 188 innings and is well on his way to crossing the 200-inning threshold, while he has already done so in terms of strikeouts. The right-handed hurler has posted career-highs in ERA+ and FIP in a late-career sure- similar to fellow AL Cy Young candidates Mike Minor and Charlie Morton.
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
For context, this breakout starter has a career WAR of 5.8 and a WAR of 6.0 on the season. This is the first evidence of his pitching prowess that had always been promised, ever since he was a budding star in the Washington Nationals system.
Giolito is unlikely to power a fastball past the bat of his opponents with regularity, however, his wicked movement has often befuddled batters, as his pitches tend to elude bats. That is not to say his fastball lacks swinging strikes. Quite the contrary, actually.
His fastball averages at 95 mph, yet adding his 82 mph change-up and 85 mph slider makes the 95 seem as if it were 99. Also, it has a certain degree of backspin- the aforementioned movement- that has given many a batter significant difficulty.
His tendency to walk opposing batters and allow the long ball are the only real things holding him back, however slightly, it indicates a lack of control. Yet, as he ages, this will round into form. It is abundantly clear that he has put together a high-quality season.
AL CY Young Awards Predictions
5. Mike Minor, Texas Rangers
Similar to Giolito, Mike Minor has an average velocity of 93 mph- lower than Giolito’s even- on his fastball, yet he generates many swinging strikes with it. Once again, it is due to the fact that when it is added to the assortment of other pitches he throws, it becomes enhanced.
Those other pitches include an 86 mph circle-change, an 87 mph slider, and an 82 mph knuckle curve. This vast array of movement and spin rate allows the fastball, which also has movement, to appear as if it is moving faster than it actually is. Pitching a lot of the time is a huge illusion in which he who knows how to manipulate the zone and execute his pitch where he needs to will succeed.
He currently sports a 3.08 ERA- remarkably low when taking the juiced ball into consideration- an ERA+ of 167, and a FIP of 3.90. These are ravishing marks and will assuredly be recognized by many teams in the offseason, beckoning to requisition his services from the Texas Rangers with a sole year of control left.
Overall, the process of pitching is rotating towards those who can truly spin the ball, although 98 mph can help. Jacob deGrom may win another Cy Young in 2019, this can mainly be ascribed to his newfound slider that has been more of a weapon than ever before this season. Minor is one more fine example of this trend.
AL CY Young Awards Predictions
4. Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays
Charlie Morton is a prime example of what spin rate can do for a pitcher, given the right arm it can revolutionize him. Morton routinely hits 95 mph with his fastball and not much less with his sinker. His knuckle-curve and slider are both so sharp that they routinely buckle the knees of opponents. When these two weapons come together, they form something that is purely formidable.
Morton has been the anchor, the only remaining peg of consistency in the potentially playoff-bound rays rotation. It has been a year of fits and starts for the rest of the bunch. High upside and much promise are followed by injuries and disappointment, except for when Morton is on the mound.
Morton’s 2.76 FIP is startling, enough for him to lead the American League in that category. He has also once again outdone himself in terms of strikeouts and innings, seemingly defying the concept of age. As Morton gets older he seems to improve, while his ex-Astros teammate Dallas Keuchel could barely find a job.
Morton K/9 marks always vacillated in between an uninspiring 5.8 to 7.2, however, since he arrived in Houston and now Tampa Bay, his K/9 has never been bellow 10, improving every season. Astoundingly he has also kept his home run surrendered total to 13 this season- a nearly miraculous feat in this current environment.
AL CY Young Awards Predictions
3. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
A relative newcomer, Shane Bieber, has burst onto the scene after having relative success in 2018. Once again two of the largest attributes a pitcher can have are availability and consistency. Similar to Morton, Bieber has anchored his team’s, respective, rotation.
Among trades of Trevor Bauer, injuries to Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar, and the concurrently devastating and inspiring story of Carlos Carrasco, Bieber has stood tall. He has been producing in the Indians rotation from the commencement of the season, when Mike Clevenger went down he stood up.
Bieber’s emergence, along with that of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, has allowed the Indians to sustain themselves in a playoff run despite rampant injuries to all facets of their team. They currently are in the thick of a wild card and divisional race.
He leans on a standard assortment of pitches, primarily a fastball and slider also melding a curveball and change-up. His slider is the so-called out-pitch, as that is where the majority of his swing and misses come from.
Already in his second season, Bieber is on the cusp of 200 innings and has long surpassed 200 strikeouts- well on his way to 250. He can go deep within the game, while also racking up strikeouts. That is a rare talent especially for one who does not possess 99 mph speed.
AL CY Young Awards Predictions
Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole
It is clear that these two are the above and beyond favorites to win this trophy. They are teammates seeking to claim postseason glory before they disband- Gerrit Cole is a free agent in the offseason- yet they are competitors in this category.
I am not suggesting that there is even a remote chance that either would find this competition more important than the greater goal of a championship, it could be a fun wager of sorts between the two.
In terms of the stats, Justin Verlander has a lower ERA and WHIP, while hurling more innings and notching two complete games- including a no-hitter- to Cole’s 0. However, Cole has the upper hand in strikeouts and FIP. Verlander leads all of MLB in ERA+ and Cole in punchouts.
The staggering FIP of Cole could easily be disregarded, however, 0.54 is significant for this category. 0.54 of course being the difference between the two aces. Cole’s strikeout rate is not drastically higher than Verlander’s to cause such a disparity.
This could lead some to speculate that Cole is inducing more soft contact when the ball is put into play. Some evidence includes the six more home runs Verlander has surrendered in 16 extra innings.
In the end, it is a tough call, Verlander likely will win the award- perhaps a repayment from years past. Yet there is a legitimate argument to be made that Cole, in fact, is more deserving of it.
Next. NL Cy Young update. dark
All in all, this race will go down to the wire, it leaves room for opinions to change in the final two weeks of 2019.