Grading the 2019 MLB season free agent signings
Ranking the effectiveness of each team’s free agent signings based on the cost and the players’ production during the 2019 MLB season to date.
Major League teams have spent more than $680 million on free agents – that’s counting only 2019 salaries — since the end of the 2018 season. Which ones made the best use of all that cash?
With the 2019 MLB season approaching its close, it’s time for a report card designed to determine which clubs aced the off-season and which ones flunked baseball economics.
The assessment below quantifies the impact of every player signed or re-signed on the open market since last season’s conclusion. That’s 221 free agents on the 2019 payrolls of the 30 teams. Our measuring stick is Adjusted Wins Above Average, a variant of WAR that is based on the value of an average major league rather than a replacement player.
The adjustment we’re making, which is designed to reflect a team base of 0.0 rather than the negative WAA totals some teams accumulate, merely lifts the mathematical calculations out of the murky realm of the negative; it does not impact the comparative rankings.
Grades are based on two calculations. The first, dubbed Net ROI (Return on Investment), measures each team’s Adjusted WAA against the MLB average of 5.44, irrespective of how much that team actually spent. In other words, it favors productive economy.
The second calculation, Gross ROI, gauges the same thing but does so irrespective of each team’s spending. That gives a natural advantage to higher-spending teams.
Each team’s final GPA represents the average of its Net and Gross ROI grades.
With that as an explanation, here are the grades, organized by division.
Grading the 2019 MLB season free agent signings
American League East
New York’s under-the-radar signing of D J LeMahieu, who could win the American League batting title, was, in retrospect, a brilliant move, even at the fairly extravagant price of $12 million. He has returned 3.3 Wins Above Average, the fourth-highest total among all free agents. The Yankees also scored with the re-signing of Brett Gardner, who returned 1.6 WAA on his $7.5 million deal.
The knock on New York’s free-agent season was the cumulative $69.16 million they spent on a dozen free agents, an amount that is almost impossible to cost-justify. Almost all of that went to a half dozen players who got deals valued at $7.5 million each or more, some of whom – C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happ come to mind – simply weren’t worth it.
The Rays made only one free agent move of consequence, but that one – the signing of pitcher Charlie Morton for $15 million – was well worth it. Morton produced 2.9 WAA, fifth-best in the 2018-19 class. The Rays spent a little more than one-quarter of what the Yankees laid out for free agents but got two-thirds as much value, which amounts to quality value shopping.
Boston laid out $23.41 million for five free agents and got nothing from any of them. That failure played a significant role in the team’s fall out of post-season contention.
The Toronto Blue Jays had an active winter, signing nine free agents, and like Boston got little value in return. The most productive was probably Matt Shoemaker, who in a $3.5 million deal made just five starts before being injured.
Baltimore’s new management laid low over the winter, preferring to develop its farm options. The Orioles spent just $1.65 million on free agents – easily the least in the majors – the only signing of any significance being starter Nate Karns.
Division grades:
- Tampa Bay – Net ROI: A-; Gross ROI: A-; GPA: A-.
- Baltimore – Net ROI: A; Gross ROI: C: GPA: B
- Toronto – Net ROI: B-; Gross ROI: B-; GPA: B-
- New York – Net ROI: D; Gross ROI: A; GPA: C+
- Boston – Net ROI: D; Gross ROI: C-; GPA: C-
Grading the 2019 MLB season free agent signings
National League East
NL East teams poured more than $159 million into the winter free-agent market — the most of any division — and that includes the Miami Marlins, who did little. The other four teams, all envisioning themselves as contenders, averaged a $38 million layout on free agent talent.
Washington’s signing of Patrick Corbin did not merit headlines commensurate with the pursuits of Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but it has turned out to be the second most productive free-agent signing of the 2019 MLB season. Corbin has produced a 4.0 WAA on a $12.9 million deal. The Nats also scored with their pickup of Anibal Sanchez, who at $8 million produced 2.0 WAA. At the same time, the Nats spent a division-high $45 million, a fact that tempers the overall assessment of them.
Harper returned 1.7 WAA on the $11.53 he got from the Phillies. That may over the length of the deal prove to be a brilliant investment. But considering the 2019 NL East alone, Harper was only the fourth most valuable free-agent signee, behind Corbin, Sanchez and Josh Donaldson.
The Braves gambled on Donaldson’s health, investing $23 million in their third baseman. At 3.7 WAA they likely were not disappointed. Their mid-season signing of Dallas Keuchel also has been productive, Keuchel delivering 1.6 WAA to date on his $14 million salaries.
The Mets will look back on their signings as a series of largely wasted investments. They signed 11 players – among them relievers Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson, catcher Wilson Ramps, and infielder Jed Lowrie at a cumulative $28 million-plus — among whom only Ramos proved helpful.
The Marlins made only two moves of note, and neither Neil Walker nor Sergio Romo has been a factor.
Grades
- Atlanta – Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: A-; GPA B
- Philadelphia – Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: B; GPA: B-
- Washington—Net ROI D; Gross ROI B; GPA: C
- Miami – Net ROI: B-; Gross ROI: C-; GPA: C
- New York – Net ROI: D; Gross ROI: C-; GPA: D+
Grading the 2019 MLB season free agent signings
American League Central
The Cleveland Indians took a very conservative approach to free agency and milked that approach for as much as could have been hoped. They got relievers Tyler Clippard on a minor league deal and Oliver Perez for a relatively modest $2.5 million and shored up their pen. At just 1.1 cumulative WAA, it was not a great free-agent season. But at just a $5 million outlay, it was an extremely cost-efficient one.
The Twins signed 10 free agents, the biggest name being Nelson Cruz. At $14.3 million, he returned 2.0 WAA, making Cruz the division’s most productive free-agent pickup. The signings of Marwin Gonzalez to a $12 million deal and Jonathan Schoop for $7.5 million were less useful.
Nobody else in the division did much of anything. The White Sox signed seven free agents, notably Kelvin Herrera, but he has not delivered the hope-for bullpen boost. Catcher James McCann, who cost $2.5 million, has delivered a 1.7 WAA, making him the division’s second most productive free agent.
The Royals contented themselves with signing second-tier free agents of the stripe of Billy Hamilton and Jake Diekman, none of whom produced more in value than Martin Maldonado’s 0.4 WAA.
Detroit’s two biggest signings were infielder Jordy Mercer and pitcher Tyson Ross, neither of whom has netted positive value.
Grades
- Cleveland — Net ROI: A+; Gross ROI: B-; GPA: B+
- Minnesota – Net ROI: D; Gross ROI: B-; GPA: C
- Chicago — Net ROI: C; gross ROI: C; GPA: C
- Kansas City—Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: C; GPA: C
- Detroit – Net ROI: D; Gross ROI: D-; GPA: D
Grading the 2019 MLB season free agent signings
National League Central
As a group, NL: Central teams were the least engaged on the free agent circuit last winter. They spent a total of just $76.08 million, and only the Milwaukee Brewers were among the top half of MLB teams in raw free-agent spending.
The Brewers largely spent that cash on just two players, catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas. The good news is they got the division’s two most productive signees. The bad news is those two still only combined for 2.1 WAA.
The division-leading St. Louis Cardinals barely sampled the free-agent market at all. They signed only two players, Andrew Miller for $11 million and Matt Wieters to a minor league deal that eventually matriculated into a $1.5 million arrangement. Neither have materially contributed to the Cardinals’ division leadership.
Tied up financially by previous free-agent deals, the Cubs tried to work the system’s margins. They signed eight mostly low-profile players, eventually topping that class with the July signing of closer Craig Kimbrel for $10 million. None, including Kimbrel, have been positive contributors.
Pittsburgh ponied up $13.3 million for nine free agents, notably Lonnie Chisenhall, Jordan Lyles, and Jung Ho Kang. Only Francisco Liriano, with a 0.5 WAA on a $1.8 million deal, can be said to have been productive.
The Reds were a profile in the economy. They spent just $10.5 million, the costliest being Zach Duke at just $2 million. They have gotten nothing for any of the expenditures, but at least didn’t spend themselves into trouble.
Grades
- Milwaukee – Net ROI: B-; Gross ROI: B; GPA: B
- St. Louis – Net ROI: B; Gross ROI: C; GPAS: B-
- Cincinnati – Net ROI: B; Gross ROI: C; GPA: B-
- Chicago – Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: C-: GPA: C
- Pittsburgh – Net ROI: D; Gross ROI: F; GPA: D-
Grading the 2019 MLB season free agent signings
American League West
Give Jeff Luhnow credit. The Houston Astros general manager spent $26.5 million – a relatively modest sum – on three free agents last winter and came away with three contributors. Only one of the three, by the way, was considered a front-tier pickup.
The exception was Michael Brantley, who Luhnow plucked for $16 million. That’s a healthy sum, but Brantley has rewarded it with a 2.9 WAA 2019 MLB season, the second strongest among AL West signees.
For perspective, Luhnow’s $26.5 million spent ranked only third in the Astros’ division.
Aside from Brantley, Houston also snared catcher Robinson Chirinos (1.8 WAA) and pitcher Wade Miley (0.9).
The only AL West player generating a stronger WAA than Brantley is also the free-agent class’s leader in that category, Texas pitcher Lance Lynn. At a $9.3 million price, he’s given the Rangers 4.8 WAA. The problem is that Texas GM Jon Daniels signed 14 free agents, and Lynn is the only one above 0.6. The net impact of those 14 has been -0.5 WAA…that at a cost of $29.58 million.
Los Angeles’ Billy Eppler splurged last winter, and that splurge produced only trouble. Eppler signed nine free agents, laying out $35.35 million in 2019 dollars to do so. This is what that $35.35 million bought him: Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Justin Bour, Cody Allen, a couple of months worth of Jonathan Lucroy and four guys you never heard of. The net return on that $35.35 million: -5.6 WAA, MLB’s worst figure.
Like Eppler, Oakland GM David Forst was also active, signing nine players. The difference was that Forst shopped at the bargaining table. He netted only a -1.20 return, but at least it just cost him $21.6 million.
Seattle GM Jerry DiPoto largely occupied himself with trades, but he did take the time to sign seven free agents, notably Japanese pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. The pitcher cost him $10 million and has returned -0.6 WAA; in fact none of DiPoto’s pickups did better than reliever Cory Gearrin’s 0.4 WAA. But at least they came cheap.
Grades
- Houston: Net ROI: A; Gross ROI: A. GPA. A
- Oakland: Net ROI: C. Gross ROI: C. GPA: C
- Seattle: Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: C. GPA: C
- Texas Rangers: Net ROI: D+; Gross ROI: C. GPA: C-
- Los Angeles Angels: Net ROI: F. Gross ROI: F. GPA: F
Grading the 2019 MLB season free agent signings
National League West
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Although his performance has mitigated during the past month, Hyun Jin Ryu’s performance remains the pitching story of the season. Keep in mind that the Dodgers re-signed him for $17.9 million, and to date have gotten 2.7 WAA on that payout. At $4.5 million, David Freese has been a modest benefit.
Arizona’s free-agent class is enhanced by the re-signing of Eduardo Escobar, which has netted 2.2 WAA at a cost of $6.16 million. The far more heralded signing of Adam Jones looks like a bust by comparison; Jones signed for $3 million and has delivered -1.5 WAA.
The Padres made one of the off-season two mega-moves, signing Manny Machado to a deal that paid him $12 million this year. Machado has been a 1.0 WAA player, probably less than what the Padres had hoped for. They also laid out $7 million for a recovering Garrett Richards in the hope that he will yield benefit next year.
San Francisco invested $7 million in Derek Holland, watched him flop through the first three months 2019 MLB season, then unloaded him to the Cubs for cold, hard cash. In his first season running the club, Farhan Zaidi didn’t get much more out of his other eight signings.
Colorado GM Jeff Bridich fundamentally sat out the free-agent season. He signed the only infielder Daniel Murphy, who in exchange for $10 million has flopped badly, and Mark Reynolds, the latter to a minor league deal that also flopped.
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Grades
- Los Angeles: Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: B; GPA: B-
- Arizona: Net ROI: B-; Gross ROI: C. GPA: C+
- San Diego: Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: C; GPA: C
- Colorado: Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: D; GPA: C-
- San Francisco: Net ROI: C; Gross ROI: D: GPA: C-