2019 NL Wild Card: Because the rules say somebody has to win

With six teams within shouting distance of the second Wild Card in the National League, it’s anybody’s game. Whose game should it be?

The Washington Nationals are going to make the playoffs. They’re going to maintain their lead. They’re going to host the Wild Card game.

How can I be so sure? Because Max Scherzer. Because 19-31. Because Bryce Harper. Because Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon.

Frankly, they’re going to make the postseason because after repeated playoff heartbreaks, after Bryce’s departure and their horrid start to the season, after eight straight seasons of being over .500 and never winning a postseasons series, after Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Scherzer made the Nats the second NL team ever to field three pitchers with more than 200 strikeouts, after dugout dance party, they deserve it.

The Cubs, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, and Diamondbacks may be nipping at their heels, but this race is a mess. It’s not unlike the Presidents’ Race at Nats Park. The contestants are slow and malformed, there’s a lot of tripping over each other, momentum means nothing, and only half the people in the ballpark care enough to watch.

The Mets would be the Teddy Roosevelt in this example – despite being the biggest personality, there’s a long tradition of not letting him win. As Neil King of the WSJ narrates in the video below, it’s not necessarily rigged – there’s a lot of ways to lose a race.

Unfortunately, Teddy did eventually win the President’s Race, and as much fun as it is to watch a team that can’t get out of its own way, the Mets can win this race as well.

But do they deserve to win?

Whomever survives this gauntlet of mediocrity that is the NL Wild Card race will do so because they win the most baseball games. Full stop.

But we all know **wink** who should win **wink**, right **wink**?

In 2015, it was the Royals turn to win the World Series. We knew it was their year because they’d come so close the year before, and they’re such a small market. Once they repeated as pennant champs…what, are we not gonna let them win? That would be cruel (**winks to Texas and LA**).

In 2016, it was the Cubs pretty much from the jump. They hadn’t won in 108 years! Kris Bryant won the MVP! It was their year.

In 2017, it was the Astros year because we’d never seen a 5’6″ person like Jose Altuve win a World Series. It was their year because they rejuvenated Justin Verlander, and we love Justin even though he’s not short (but, in fact, quite tall and handsome). It was their year because after Verlander joined the Astros he was inconceivably good, and before he joined the Astros he was bad and also old. Like, 30-something.

In 2018, it was the Red Sox year because the deal John Henry made with the devil guarantees at least one World Series per decade. So, 2018 was their year. Also, Chris Sale played many years for the White Sox, who are bad, and he is skinnier than your average athlete, and yet despite being skinny, he throws the baseball really hard, so it was his year too.

Whose year is it this year? It’s anyone’s guess. There are any number of reasons we as fans get to thinking one team deserves to play in the postseason over another. Because bias. Because momentum. Because recent history. We can’t-

I thought of another. Because distant history. Because market size.

**thinking**

Because age. We can’t help-

Because body type insecurity.

We can’t help it. It does feel like some teams deserve to make the playoffs more than others. But with less than two weeks left in the regular season, six teams remain reasonably in the hunt for the two Wild Card spots. Who deserves to get in? And who do we want to see trip and fall on their stupid face?

Let me tell you.

Arizona Diamondbacks

76-74, 5.5GB from 2nd WC

So what are we looking for here?

“Deserve” is like fWAR, there are too many factors to break down the formula succinctly, so suffice is to say dWAR – that’s what I’ll call it – dWAR takes into account performance this season versus expectations, the potential heartbreak for each team, the cosmic consequences should they make it in, potential for surviving the Dodgers, most fun to watch, soundness of process to get to this point, and a myriad of other random and/or subconscious factors.

If I made this list a week ago, the Diamondbacks might not be in the basement, but after losing 6 of 7 to the Mets and Reds, it’s difficult to justify saying they deserve to make the playoffs.

They have to be taken into consideration, however, because of their amazing run as a Ewing Theory darling. For the uninitiated, the Ewing Theory was coined by Bill Simmons to articulate the phenomenon of a team playing better after losing their star player.

The 2019 Arizona Diamondbacks have taken the Ewing Theory and made it gospel.

Granted, star players have less sway in baseball than they do in basketball, and it’s less surprising to see a team thrive following the loss of a significant check-collector. This is something slightly different.

By now, you probably know their story: the Diamondbacks lost the three players most synonymous with Diamondbacks baseball over the winter, theoretically prompting a trip to the NL West gutter. Only they put together an extended run of .500-ish baseball to stay within a stone’s throw of the Wild Card. Suddenly, the long-assumed deadline selloff was no longer a foregone conclusion.

Yet selloff they did, trading the current player most synonymous with Arizona baseball and the ace of their staff, theoretically prompting a slide to the NL West gutter blah blah etc.

That didn’t happen either, and until the Mets swept them this last week, they were the hardest-charging chasers.

This team making the playoffs would be a heck of a story. If nothing else, their season announced their arrival as a force moving forward. But they don’t have the pitching to make an extended run, and scrappy as they are, they’re no giant killer. They’ll succumb to the domineering will of their division tormenter in the ALDS, if not in the Wild Card game before.

Come playoff time, I want to see flashes of dominance. These Diamondbacks don’t have that. They have an incredible level of competency, an exciting core of young players, the weakest team/colors/uniform identity in the league, and a puncher’s chase at playing beyond game #162.

That’s fine by me. They don’t deserve more than that. They deserve to stay in this conversation until the very end, and then to bow out respectfully.

We should treat the Diamondbacks like a new employee seeking a promotion at their year-end review. They’re doing great work. The future is bright. We appreciate all that they’ve accomplished in such a short amount of time. But it has been a short amount of time. It’s just too soon. Next year, we can have this conversation again.

Why don’t these Diamondbacks deserve the postseason? Because timing. Because pitching. Because 5.5 games.

Chicago Cubs

Current position: 81-68, 1.5 GB from 1st WC

Listen, I love the Cubs. They’re my team. But they’ve had every opportunity to prove themselves the last two seasons and they keep coming up empty.

They’re playing entitled right now, which is neither an effective nor entertaining way to play baseball. Body language is horrible across the board. Mental errors and lack of focus continually lead to wonky errors and extra work for an unreliable, if potent offense.

The first inning against the Pirates on Friday afternoon is case and point for why this team doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs:

Of course, the rest of the series is case and point for why they should be involved in the postseason:

After giving away four runs in the top of the first, they countered with three home runs of their own to take a 5-4 lead. That’s an awful lot of drama for a first-inning one-run lead against a team they should be able to beat in their sleep.

Notably, the third shot of the inning came from emergency rookie shortstop Nico Hoerner in his first AB in front of the Wrigley faithful.

Hoerner gives the team a bit of a boost in terms of watchability – any good playoff contender ought to have a fresh-faced rook or centerpiece player who’s a playoff neophyte. Whether Hoerner keeps the job through the WC game or loses it to Javier Baez returning from injury, there’s a pretty good story to track at shortstop (so long as it’s not Addison Russell taking over, please god).

They also made the best deadline acquisition of the year in freeing Nicholas Castellanos from Detroit. The Cubs get points for going for it at the deadline, and Castellanos gets one point for every ball he sends beyond the basket. Spoiler: he’s raising their dWAR by the day.

Still, this team’s been there before, and there’s no outdoing their run in 2016. A surprise return to form in the final two weeks could make them interesting again, but if the tune doesn’t change, these Cubs are played out.

Why do these Cubs deserve the postseason? Because Theo. Because Joe. Because nostalgia. Because the number 108. But most of all: because Nick and Nico.

Philadelphia Phillies

76-72, 4.5 GB from 2nd WC

The single most exciting Wild Card possibility remains in play so long as the Phillies are alive.

Bryce Harper traveling to Washington to take on his former team is why the Wild Card game exists. The viewership for Phils at Nats would outdraw any of the postseason games that follow it. It would reach gen pop.

Talk about pressurized: Max vs Bryce, Bryce vs the Nats horrid bullpen, the side-by-side screenshots of Harper and Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon’s impending free agency vs the gaping hole at third base on Philly’s side. Aaron Nola vs himself.

Gabe Kapler‘s mismanagement of the bullpen versus Davey Martinez’s mismanagement of the bullpen. Barnburner.

This is the ultimate showdown game: you’re either a pay-the-man Bryce truther, or a dyed-in-the-wool hometown homer shilling for the Nationals.

Bryce would have the opportunity for the ultimate f-you moment – or else eat crow all the way back to Philly. The stakes for his legacy could not be higher. We haven’t had a game like this since Giambi returned in pinstripes to take down the Moneyball A’s.

Except Giambi always seemed like a not-so-innocent bystander caught in a parents’ feud that was well over his head. Harper is a primary driver in his exit from Washington, and if Bryce is anything, he’s aware of the moment. This game is juicy and I want it.

But without the Shakespearean undertones, the Phillies don’t carry the weight of a team that “needs this.” They went all-in this offseason, both with bawdy talk of big spending, and then with big spending. But the egg’s already on their face for that overhype.

A tempered approach at the deadline somewhat nullified the flourish of the offseason. It was the sober morning after the drunken revelry of the offseason. But now it’s over. They know they got too drunk, we know they got too drunk, they know we know they got to drunk, and so on. Everyone’s a little embarrassed, and the best thing to do is get on to 2020, act like this never happened, try not to get so drunk tomorrow night.

Compared to, say, the Rays or A’s, there’s not much urgency to a Phillies postseason appearance.  When you sign Harper to a 10-year contract, there can’t be too much pressure to win in year one. They entered the season with hopes of contending, but falling just shy of the postseason feels like the right spiritual place for this team.

More to the point, this isn’t the year to stick Aaron Nola in a do-or-die game. Rhys Hoskins has been a bit of a disappointment after everyone assumed he’d flourish back at first base and with Bryce’s bat behind him.

Bryce’s second half has been solid, but there’s a year coming when he’ll do this from day one. Arrieta could be a fun throwback for the postseason, but he’s out. Andrew McCutchen would make them worthy of a Wild Card bid on his own, deserving as he is for postseason action, but he’s out too.

Scott Kingery is a dirt dog made for postseason play. As is Harper. These dudes are max entertainers who become more entertaining when pressurized. They need their opportunity.

But they don’t need it this year. Keep ‘em close in case the Nationals lock up the top spot and we have a chance for Wild Card: Bryce’s Revenge. Otherwise, stay home, do some Pilates with Arrieta and Coach Kap, and start thinking about where to find a third baseman, a centerfielder, and a busload of starting pitchers.

Why do these Phillies deserve the postseason? Because Wild Card: Bryce’s Revenge. Otherwise, they don’t.

New York Mets

77-72, 4 GB from 2nd WC

There are only two possible outcomes for the 2019 New York Mets.

Path One: they stay close enough to be in contention for the final week of the season, only to blow it against the misfit Miami Marlins and a Braves team in full-on rest-for-the-playoffs mode.

Path Two: they actually pull this thing off.

Credit the Mets for forging an identity this season behind agent-turned-evil-incarnate Brodie Van Wagenen. They’ve cornered the nobody-believes-in-us market, continually propped up expectations beyond what the rest of baseball thinks is possible for them, and they’ve done it all with an f-you we’re New York attitude.

The Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade was the first overreach, spending big in dollars and prospect capital for an aging second baseman and the best closer in baseball to close games for what-we-assumed would be a losing team.

It didn’t exactly play out that way. Diaz blew up in their face, but not because he was superfluous – because he’s been a disaster.

Yet at the deadline they doubled down, trading for Marcus Stroman in a savvy bid to play both sides of the market. Their playoff odds were minuscule at the time of the deal, but a 15-1 run brought them right back into the race and reinforced the organization’s belief in themselves as a competitor.

They stuck to their identity, no matter how often we told them to bail. Some cosmic comeuppance should get the Mets not only into the Wild Card game, but through it.

Besides the Nationals, they’re probably the only team in the field with a chance to outlast the Dodgers in the ALDS. For one, they have the pitching. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Stroman, and Zack Wheeler raise their ceiling, making them the type of team that can go on a 15-1 run. Their bullpen remains a dumpster fire, but whose isn’t?

These Mets actually believe they’re the best team in every game they play. Todd Frazier, Brandon Nimmo, Wilson Ramos, J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso: they’re a blocky group, and insufferable to anyone outside Queens, but only because they know how good they can be and don’t mind sharing. In the playoffs, the hubristic gumption these Mets have shown all year might actually play. Insecurity is the loose thread that unravels playoff runs, and the Metropolitans are not insecure.

If there’s a team foolish enough to believe they can withstand a five-round bout of back-and-forths with a juggernaut like the Dodgers, it’s the Mets.

I can see it now. They beat Max Scherzer in the one-game playoff, deGrom loses two starts in the ALDS and they still take the Dodgers in five, the Braves collapse under the pressure of heightened expectations against an inferior division foe, and Michael Conforto, deGrom, and Syndergaard start in with the soundbites about how this team is even better than the surprise pennant winner in 2015. Oh yeah, I can see this team getting swept by the Astros in the World Series.

Why do these Mets deserve the postseason? Because karma. Because they stuck to their process. Because deGrom’s 9 wins. Because polar bears. And most of all, because after the baseball world openly mocked the Mets for believing in themselves, these Mets in the playoffs is exactly what we deserve.