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MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-24

By Bill Felber

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 10: Kyle Seager #15 of the Seattle Mariners watches his two run home run against the Cincinnati Reds to give the Seattle Mariners a 4-3 lead in the eighth inning during their game at T-Mobile Park on September 10, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 10: Kyle Seager #15 of the Seattle Mariners watches his two run home run against the Cincinnati Reds to give the Seattle Mariners a 4-3 lead in the eighth inning during their game at T-Mobile Park on September 10, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /
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MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24
(Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /

In week-24 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” the last couple weeks of September are supposed to be the time for the game’s stars to shine. If anything, the opposite was true this past week. Of the 10 most critical base hits delivered during the week – as measured by Weighted Win Probability Added – eight were struck on behalf of teams that have been eliminated from post-season contention.

Five of the eight benefitted last-place teams in the American League, including the two most mission-critical. Those were Kyle Seager’s Tuesday home run that helped defeat Cincinnati and Trey Mancini’s three-run homer that almost derailed Detroit’s effort to beat Mancini’s Baltimore Orioles Saturday..

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

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