MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-24

In week-24 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” the last couple weeks of September are supposed to be the time for the game’s stars to shine. If anything, the opposite was true this past week. Of the 10 most critical base hits delivered during the week – as measured by Weighted Win Probability Added – eight were struck on behalf of teams that have been eliminated from post-season contention.

Five of the eight benefitted last-place teams in the American League, including the two most mission-critical. Those were Kyle Seager’s Tuesday home run that helped defeat Cincinnati and Trey Mancini’s three-run homer that almost derailed Detroit’s effort to beat Mancini’s Baltimore Orioles Saturday..

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

9. Brian O’Grady, 39 percent

The Reds came to Seattle for their final interleague series of the season seeking to find some meaning in a season that has seen them fail to break into the NL Central’s upper ranks. What ensued was a continuation of their frustrations, three games in which they out-scored the Mariners 17-14 yet lost two out of three.

And they did so despite leading into the seventh inning of all three games.

Tuesday’s 5-3 defeat was typical. Freddy Galvis’ second-inning base hit, following on Phil Ervin’s triple, gave the Reds an early lead, and although the Mariners got single runs in the fifth and sixth the Reds remained closely in touch behind Trevor Bauer’s strong outing. Bauer held the Mariners to just those two homers and three hits while striking out eight.

Austin Adams relieved starter Justus Sheffield to begin the seventh and retired the first two batters he faced, Galvis and Josh VanMeter. But Tucker Barnhart worked a walk on a 3-2 pitch, putting the tying run on base for O’Grady, a pinch hitter for Alex Blandino.

Reds manager David Bell’s selection of O’Grady over fellow rookie Blandino was strictly a platoon decision since Blandino came into the game hitting 70 points higher. But it was also a prescient decision. He took a first-pitch ball, then attacked a low fastball and drilled it into the right-field upper deck.

That hit gave the Reds a 3-2 advantage and improved their chances of winning by 39 percent, to 65 percent. This, however, was destined to be a frustrating night for the Reds, for reasons that involve the week’s biggest hit.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

8. Kyle Lewis, 44 percent

One night after O’Grady’s home run was not good enough to lock up a Reds victory, the teams staged a virtual reprise of their Tuesday contest.

This time the Reds led 2-0  through six innings thanks to run-producing hits by Joey Votto and Ervin. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray carried a no-hitter into the seventh, having issued just two walks and hit one batter.

In the bottom of the seventh, however, the Mariners finally figured out Gray, who was complicit in his own downfall. He began by hitting a second Mariner, Austin Nola, and followed that by walking the previous night’s hero, Kyle Seager.

After Gray got Omar Narvaez to line out, Lewis came up. Called to the majors just the previous night, Lewis had gone one for three Tuesday but was hitless in his first two tries Wednesday. Gray delivered a first-pitch fastball on the outer edge of the plate, and Lewis powered it over the 380-foot sign in deep right-center field. The no-hitter disappeared, as did Gray’s lead.

The homer improved Seattle’s chances of winning from 33 percent to 77 percent, but it didn’t settle the issue entirely. After the home team added two more runs off Cincy’s bullpen in the eighth, the Reds staged a last-ditch comeback.

They loaded the bases in the ninth off Sam Tuivalala, and when Anthony Bass came on in relief he struck out Derek Dietrich for the potential third out only to have the pitch scoot past Narvaez.  Tucker Barnhart scored and Joey Votto came up with the potential tying run in scoring position. But Bass got Votto to ground easily to first to conclude the game.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

7. Omar Narvaez, 46 percent

Acquired by Seattle in a winter trade with Chicago, Omar Narvaez has found himself splitting time with erstwhile backup Tom Murphy. But despite the disappointment of the 2019 season, Narvaez has maintained his offensive profile, delivering career highs in batting average (.280) and home runs (21).

Saturday night against his old team, Narvaez reminded the Sox of precisely what they had given up on.

Felix Hernandez and Dylan Cease were locked in a scoreless battle until Seattle’s Shed Long homered off Cease with one out in the fifth. The Sox evened things in the seventh, however, when Zack Collins’ groundout got Jose Abreu home after Abreu had singled and taken third on Yoan Moncada’s double.

The contest then resolved into a bullpen battle, with four Sox relievers and two Mariners taking turns blanking each side through the eighth and ninth.

Narvaez batted third in the bottom of the ninth, having failed to contribute anything in his first three trips to the plate. After retiring Kyle Seager and Kyle Lewis, White Sox reliever Alex Colome slipped a first strike past Narvaez, then delivered a second pitch that Narvaez hoisted far and deep into the right-field seats. It was the Mariners’ first walk-off victory since July.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

6. Rougned Odor, 48 percent

When you score seven runs in the first inning, you ought to expect that lead to hold up beyond the second inning.

That wasn’t the case Wednesday night at Globe Life Park in Texas when the Rangers hung that lucky seven on Tampa Bay only to watch the Rays tie the game with a five-run second. By the fourth inning, when Matt Duffy’s sacrifice fly scored Austin Meadows, Tampa actually led 8-7.

But that merely ratcheted up the dramatics for Odor.  When Oakland’s Colin Piche retired the first two batters in the seventh, the Rangers’ odds of winning fell to just 16 percent. But Nick Solak singled and Danny Santana worked Poche for a walk.

That knocked Poche out of the game in favor of Nick Anderson and brought Odor to the plate.

He got a hittable 2-2 pitch and launched it for a three-run home run that reinstated Texas’ lead, this time by 10-8. They survived Ji-Man Choi’s ninth-inning home run to win 10-9.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

5. George Springer, 48 percent

The Astros have so many weapons, both offensively and defensively, that even when one missteps there is backup. Friday night in Kansas City, the Astros showed their versatility against the Royals.

Jose Altuve’s first-inning home run staked Gerrit Cole to an early lead, and Cole set about protecting it. Into the eighth inning, he limited the Royals to two hits and fanned 10, walking only two batters.

But in the eighth, Cole hiccupped, and that hiccup cost Houston its slim lead. Bubba Starling tapped him for a leadoff base hit, stole second, took third on Martin Maldonado’s throwing error, and scored on Meibrys Viloria’s fly ball.

Suddenly locked in a 1-1 tie, the Royals sent Heath Fillmyer out in the ninth inning. That was when the full display of the Astros’ firepower came into focus. With one out, Kyle Tucker lined a single into right field, then pinch hitter Michael Brantley followed with a base on balls.

With the lead run in scoring position, Astros manager AJ Hinch called on Josh Reddick to pinch-hit. Fillmyer fanned Reddick on a 2-2 pitch, but that merely threw the issue to Springer. He was hitless in four at-bats, but in Springer’s world that only meant he was due. After taking two balls, Springer launched a home run into the seats in left-center, scoring Tucker and pinch-runner Garrett Stubbs ahead of him.

The Royals had accomplished the improbable in coming back on Cole. But that merely turned Springer’s last at-bat into an opportunity.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

4. Victor Reyes, 49 percent

For a late-season contest between cellar-dwelling teams, Saturday’s meeting of the Orioles and Tigers in Detroit sure rewarded onlookers with thrills.

The Tigers’ 8-4, 12-inning win featured not one but two of the week’s most game-turning hits plus a game-ending grand slam…and the slam wasn’t one of those two.

Reyes’ hit came in the bottom of the ninth, his Tigers trailing 3-2 following a three-run Oriole eighth. More on that inning briefly. His game-tying home run came after Orioles closer Mychal Givens retired the first two Tiger hitters, increasing Baltimore’s chances of winning the game to 95 percent.

In affixing a tie, Reyes’ home run adjusted those odds to 54 percent in favor of Detroit.

But actually locking up that victory took a while. In the top of the 12th, Rio Ruiz singled Mason Williams home to put Baltimore back on top 4-3.

Then in the bottom of the 12th, Orioles pitcher Paul Fry walked Harold Castro surrendered a one-out double to Travis Demeritte and intentionally walked Dawel Lugo. With Ryan Eades replacing Fry, Brandon Dixon drew a bases-loaded walk on four pitches to tie the game, then John Hicks sent Tiger fans home happy with his walk-off grand slam.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

3. Mike Moustakas, 49 percent

With their star sidelined due to a season-ending injury the previous night, and given their status on the outer fringes of the National League playoff picture, beating the lowly Miami Marlins Wednesday was imperative to Milwaukee’s hopes

Yet the Crew managed merely a standoff through the first eight innings. Worse, they blew a quick 5-2 lead when the Marlins marshaled three fifth-inning runs on home runs by Isan Diaz and Garrett Cooper.

The next three innings represented a bullpen standoff, only one runner advancing beyond first base. That sole runner, Magneuris Sierra, reached third in the sixth inning but was thrown out trying to steal home.

Jose Urena started the Milwaukee ninth by retiring Lorenzo Cain and Trent Grisham. But Yasmani Grandal worked a walk on a 3-1 pitch, giving Mike Moustakas a chance.  He was in an inspired situation, not only celebrating his 31st birthday but already having done so with his 32nd home run.

His 33rd came on a 2-1 pitch, an inner-corner fastball he deposited three rows deep into the upper deck in right field.  The hit put the Brewers on top 7-5 and prevented a loss that might have proven fatal to the team’s postseason hopes. One night later, the4 Brewers completed a sweep of their Miami excursion.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

2. Trey Mancini, 51 percent

The Tigers’ 8-4 victory Saturday was, as previously noted, laden with drama on both sides. Even before Hicks’ walk-off grand slam,  even before Reyes’ last-ditch game-tying home run, there was Trey Mancini.

Mancini’s Orioles had fallen behind on Harold Castro’s third-inning home run and trailed 2-0 when Reyes singled home Willi Castro.

Meanwhile, Tiger pitchers Daniel Norris and Drew VerHagen aced their assignments, limiting the Orioles to a combined four hits and one walk through seven innings.

But Tiger manager Ron Gardenhire decided that VerHagen had had enough starting the eighth, so he called on reliever Bryan Garcia. He fanned D.J. Stewart, then set down Rio Ruiz on a 3-2 pitch for the second out. At that precise moment, four outs from victory, the odds of a Tiger victory were 92 percent.

But as good as things looked, they would turn within a few pitches. Hanser Alberto started the rally with a ground single through the infield, and Jonathan Villar punched another grounder through shortstop to put the tying runs on base.

Mancini was next up. Enjoying probably the best season of his career, Mancini stood in with 31 home runs, took the first pitch, then hammered the next one over the wall in right field for his 32nd.

That hit not only broke the shutout and gave Baltimore a 3-2 lead, it shifted the odds of an Oriole win by 51 percent, to 69 percent. Sadly for the Orioles, that wasn’t good enough.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-24

1. Kyle Seager, 61 percent

The Seattle Mariners have suffered through such a miserable season that they were overdue to win one dramatically.

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The Mariners entered Tuesday’s series opener against the Cincinnati Reds having lost six straight, and solidly last in the American League West. They were coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros in which Mariners pitchers gave up 41 runs, capped by a 21-1 rout Sunday.

Behind the pitching of Trevor Bauer, the Reds led 3-2 entering the bottom of the eighth inning.

Michael Lorenzen opened the eighth by fanning Omar Narvaez, then getting Dee Gordon on a groundout. But when Austin Nola worked Lorenzen for a base on balls on a 3-2 count, Reds manager David Bell called on his closer, Amir Garrett, to confront Seager, who represented the go-ahead run.

This has not been one of Seager’s memorable seasons. Beyond playing for a consistent loser, he’s hit only .247. Facing Garrett, he too worked a full count. Unwilling to risk walking Seager, Garrett fed him a belt-high pitch that he lifted on a high arc three rows deep into the right-field seats, thrusting the Mariners in front by a run.

That hit positioned the Mariners to break their losing streak with a quiet ninth, and Anthony Bass delivered one. He retired the Reds in order to wrap up the victory.