San Diego Padres: Three steps towards World Series contention in 2020
The San Diego Padres have a great farm system and attractive big league assets, but they lack a few pieces to be in contention next season. Here are three steps to contend in 2020.
The San Diego Padres started this season like they were ahead of schedule, as they began the season 11-5 and their starting rotation was one of the best in the National League.
As we all now know, they have gone downhill in the second half, as it seems like the combination of the Fernando Tatis Jr. injury and the Franmil Reyes trade to Cleveland sucked the energy out of the club.
There have also been reports about how Andy Green could have lost the clubhouse and that may be a reason contributing to the uninspiring and sluggish play as of late.
Well, there will need to be a leader who is writing the lineup card next year who is a better motivator than the one that was present this season, whether it is Andy Green or not.
In addition, there is also going to have to be multiple upgrades to the roster to boost the team’s chances of making the postseason, something they haven’t done since 2006.
It is going to be A.J. Preller’s most interesting offseason yet, as he can go so many different routes to reach a goal: acquire talent in trades, sign free agents, or promote talent from within.
Here are those three steps, counting down from 3rd most important step to the most important step that–if they are done right–will result in their first winning season since 2010.
3. Find a suitor for Wil Myers (and his huge contract)
Wil Myers was the San Diego Padres everyday best player in 2016. He made it to the All-Star Game and participated in the Home Run Derby in San Diego that season.
If you asked a Padres fan if they believed Wil Myers is their franchise player after the 2016 season, they would have replied with an emphatic yes.
If I would have told them that he would strikeout at a record pace of more than 160 times before the middle of September and be so inconsistent that he would be moved to a bench role in the middle of the season, you would have thought there was something wrong with me.
Well, that all happened and on top of his inconsistent defense, those reasons are why the San Diego Padres are going to be shopping Myers and more importantly his contract to opposing teams.
If Preller was going to shop Myers, he would certainly have suitors. What isn’t there to like? He is athletic, and he would be the second coming off Anthony Rizzo if he became a key player on contending team.
But, it’s the contract.
He is going to be paid $20 million over each of the next four seasons remaining on his contract, and teams are definitely not going to want to pay that for a player who strikes out more than Aaron Judge but doesn’t put up the stats that Judge does.
The only way San Diego would be successful in getting rid of his contract would be to not really get rid of his contract. A suitor would either not want to pay all of the remaining contract or not give anything valuable back in return for him. It would be a replica of the Matt Kemp trade from San Diego to the Braves a couple of years back.
If Myers were to be traded, then it would enable San Diego to fill his spot with someone more impactful which leads me to the second most important step to contention…
2. Acquire a controllable offensive first outfielder
There were a lot of questions involving the San Diego Padres outfield at the beginning of the 2019 season. There might be more questions going into next season.
As I mentioned, they traded Franmil Reyes to Cleveland–who was in the middle of their lineup– which put trust in Hunter Renfroe who was the best all-around outfielder on the roster at the time.
But Renfroe’s offensive performance went downhill in the second half of the season, which might have been attributed to his right ankle injury.
In the second half of the season, he has hit just 5 home runs with a sub .200 average compared to a .252 average with a team-leading 27 HR in the first half.
Renfroe’s inconsistent season means that there is not a single outfielder that I can confidently say will be starting on Opening Day in 2020.
Therefore, the Padres need to acquire an offensive outfielder, who is preferably left-handed to balance out the order.
Taylor Trammell and Edward Olivares could come up to the big leagues sometime next season, but they won’t be counted on to have consistent at-bats from the end of March until the end of their season.
Some options that A.J. Preller has is David Peralta and Starling Marte.
Peralta is getting up there in age and only has one year left on his deal, but that may lower the asking price from the Diamondbacks. Peralta kills the Padres, as he has a .937 OPS at Petco Park.
Marte has the ability to play both left and center field and can hit against righties, something the San Diego Padres current outfield brass hasn’t been able to do consistently.
Adding a controllable outfielder who can hit would help out the most important addition of the off-season…
1. Add a Frontline Starter
Look, the San Diego Padres have not had an ‘ace’ in their prime since Jake Peavy. What happened when they had a true ace? They made the postseason.
That can happen once again next season if the Padres add an ace to the staff. The ace would have a huge responsibility of leading the youngest rotation in the league.
MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino or coming but they won’t be an ace from the getgo. Chris Paddack has established himself in his rookie year as an ace at times but hasn’t been able to do it consistently.
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Giving him an ace to learn from would certainly help out his game and could make him that more dominant every fifth day.
Gerrit Cole fits that bill. I know that Ron Fowler just backed up the truck for Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado each of the last two offseason but if the Padres were to get rid of Myers’ contract (which is step 3) would give them more money to spend on a frontline starter like Cole.
Stephen Strasburg also fits that bill. He has the choice to opt-out of his contract after the season with the Nationals, and why wouldn’t he want to return home.
After all, he pitched in the FIRST baseball game ever at Petco Park while at SDSU.
In addition to striking out 23 in one game and pitching to a 1.59 ERA at San Diego State, he has pitched well at Petco as well.
In 5 career starts in San Diego, the opponent batting average is barely above .200 and has logged 30 strikeouts.
Noah Syndergaard is a starter that the Padres have targeted since last offseason but haven’t been able to come to terms because the Mets are asking for an arm and a leg.
In order for the Padres to trade for a starter of the caliber of Syndergaard, they would have to give up top prospect starters like Adrian Morejon, major league starters like Eric Lauer or Joey Lucchesi, and most likely a high upside bat-like Luis Urias.
Some might not want to give up Luis Urias, but they should let him go. He just simply hasn’t been consistent to be the everyday second basemen the Padres need when they are in contention.
To fill the gap, the Padres gave plenty of options in-house if Urias is shipped away. Greg Garcia and Ty France have done well this season when Tatis was on the shelf.
Owen Miller will be up next season, as he has continued to produce offensively. Xavier Edwards and C.J. Abrams will be in San Diego in the future, although it will be a little bit farther down the road than 2020.
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Adding a frontline starting pitcher is going to be huge if the San Diego Padres want to contend in 2020.