How the Atlanta Braves keep defying the odds
In the age of analytics in MLB, we look at the Atlanta Braves and how they’re beating the spreadsheets to become one of the NL’s elite teams.
It’s not exactly a hot take anymore to say that the Atlanta Braves are good. They are putting the finishing touches on another National League East title, within striking distance of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in the senior circuit, and their field is occupied by one of the most exciting lineups in baseball today.
Whether Ronald Acuna is gliding across the outfield, Freddie Freeman is whipping a baseball into the Chop House, or Josh Donaldson is bringing his umbrella around the bases with him, this team is entertaining, and winning.
Look under the hood though, and the story begins to change a bit. Take a look at their “Expected” Win/Loss record, and your 93 win team with an ever-shrinking “magic number” suddenly becomes an 86 win team in a very competitive fight for their division.
Peel back another layer from that, and it becomes even more complicated. Take their current season-long WAR ranks in key categories across the league:
- Offense: 7th
- Starting Pitching: 12th
- Relief Pitching: 28th (gross)
- Fielding: 7th
So are the Braves just a house of cards? Is this a team that is simply playing over its head, destined to suffer a fate all too familiar to Atlanta fans?
Are the Atlanta Braves over their heads?
If you ask the analytical crowd, then yes, and that bullpen is the first stop.
The Atlanta Braves had a very visible battle with finding reliable help in their bullpen, and despite some midseason additions at the Trade Deadline, Atlanta still sports one of the worst relief corps in all of baseball.
The closer situation became particularly volatile when Luke Jackson began to fade, and Shane Greene began to experience a regression from his earlier performance with Detroit. Since then, Mark Melancon seems to have stabilized things on the back end, but questions still remain about the middle innings and high leverage situations.
The starting rotation is fine, although not necessarily remarkable outside of their young stud, Mike Soroka. With an emphasis on ground ball pitchers like Dallas Keuchel and Max Fried, the Braves have found ways to keep their opponents’ offense controlled, although not off the board completely. A look at their run differential continues on that thread, showing a team that can score runs at an elite pace, but struggles to keep them from scoring.
- LA Dodgers (+242)
- Washington Nationals (+117)
- Chicago Cubs (+116)
- Atlanta Braves (+105)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+94)
So how are they doing it? What’s the secret sauce?
How are the Atlanta Braves doing it?
It’s not so much how many runs you score, but when you score them. The Atlanta Braves have found ways to win in close games, in spite of their leaky pen.
In one-run games, Atlanta has taken care of business, boasting a 27-15 record in those games, and has shown the later innings to be their strongest. Of course, you don’t necessarily want your team to rely on the late-inning comeback, but their 11-5 record in extra-inning games shows us that they’re more than capable of it.
The good news for the Atlanta Braves? Everyone’s bullpen has been terrible!
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Yup, even the mighty Dodgers and the red-hot Nationals are no stranger to the late-inning meltdown these days, which if you put a shaky pen with an offense that seems to hit when it counts… These are key features on a winning club that may not always translate statistically.
None of this is to say the Braves are BAD, or undeserving of their spot in the postseason, but in an era of baseball where there is such a distinct separation between good teams and bad teams, one would think that a team that would be considered one of the best would feast upon teams that were less than competitive.
On the other hand, though, the NL East has proven to be one of the more competitive divisions in baseball, and the Braves have handled their business against their rivals, amassing a 45-26 record, while the rest of the division is fighting to stay around the .500 mark.
Next. Washington Nationals face a 'must-sweep' series. dark
As the season winds down, and at the time of this writing the Braves have a chance to clinch their division on their home field, there are some underlying numbers that could be interpreted as concerning for those Atlanta fans and their young, dynamic core. Take heart, however, as the analytics haven’t seemed to have slowed them down so far, and if there’s ever a fanbase more aware of the “anything can happen” mantra of the postseason, it’s Braves fans.