Phillies: Spending stupid offseason money for 2020
Like other deep-pocketed teams, the Phillies have the monetary resources to construct a competitive roster, but general manager Matt Klentak like his contemporaries has limitations some locals prefer to live without.
Everything’s cost:
If the Philadelphia Phillies acquire rotation help and quality relievers without breaking the bank or signing every player the faithful desire, some will voice their displeasure, disappointment and criticism of the organization. Unfortunately, they may believe less than everything is nothing.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Wanting more is just a recipe for heartache.” – Stephen King
Viewed separately, each star is basically within reach for a big-market franchise, but this article covers the financial totality to plug every hole. Yes, the whole enchilada! So how much would it cost to do everything the fan base expects?
Regarding the five-man staff, the favorite of the masses is Gerrit Cole, who will cost $30 million AAV (average annual value) for each of seven campaigns. But fans’ acceptable thinking is nothing short of the best available starter. Additionally, a three-slot pitcher like Cole Hamels will likely sign for $20 million each for two summers.
In the bullpen, Will Smith will receive bids in the $11 million range, and Klentak will need a second setup man for a similar expenditure. Plus that second fireman can come from one traded to a contender in July, an opt-out candidate, or an injured moundsman who proves he’s healthy in September and/or the playoffs.
As for J.T. Realmuto‘s extension, he wants Buster Posey money: $19 million each for nine seasons. But Posey was two years younger when he re-upped. So, seven campaigns would align his age then with Posey’s at 35 and deal’s end, and Realmuto would play four 162s in his prime.
While returning players are debatable, some fans want Corey Dickerson ($14 million), Cesar Hernandez ($10 million) and/or Maikel Franco ($6.5 million): $30.5 million AAV. Of course, three aging relievers won’t be back, and they represent $25.6 million AAV. However, this would still increase payroll by $4.9 million AAV.
For those who want Alec Bohm to man the hot corner on Opening Day, Franco will be too expensive to be a bench bat. Meanwhile, right-hander Spencer Howard would handle the bottom rung of the rotation for some fans who can envision this as a quick fix. And promotion demands will grow at the first sign of trouble.
Pitching staff:
With an 18-5 record and a 2.61 ERA, Cole is the faithful’s choice for the Phillies rotation head, and alternatives pale by comparison. But they won’t cost $30 million AAV either. Though, if the higher-ups don’t ink Cole, the locals will view 2020 negatively to begin with. No stretch there!
Concerning Hamels, he is 7-7 with a 3.92 ERA but will seek a three-summer contract. He will, however, accept two seasons at $20 million AAV each. That stated, he is no longer the 2015 southpaw the red pinstripes moved after his no-hitter.
2020’s Competitive-balance threshold of $208 million AAV:
- Phillies beginning amount: $194.2 million AAV.
- Minus $25.6 million AAV for $168.6 million AAV.
- Add Cole’s $30 million AAV for $198.6 million AAV.
- Add Hamels’ $20 million AAV for $218.6 million AAV.
To pick up two top-notch hurlers in Smith and Daniel Hudson, the Fightins would add $19 million AAV to their tally. Smith, though, is the top available reliever, and clubs will offer more than double his current salary up to $11 million AAV during his first free agency.
As for Hudson, he has some closing experience and like Smith he’s healthy. But a name fireman could prove he’s sound by season’s end, and a top-tier closer may opt out for a bigger payday. On the other hand, those wrinkles could lower Hudson’s cost below $8 million per year.
2020’s Competitive-balance threshold of $208 million AAV with stronger penalties for exceeding $228 million AAV and $248 million AAV maximum.
- Phillies increased amount: $218.6 million AAV.
- Add Smith’s $11 million AAV for $229.6 million AAV.
- Add Hudson’s $8 million AAV for $237.6 million AAV.
Max production:
All Phillies fans can agree that re-upping Realmuto is a must even for Buster Posey money, and $19 million AAV will be the floor during winter negotiations. However, Klentak didn’t swap his top prospect and MiLB pitcher with a young promising catcher without knowing beforehand an extension’s probability.
Regarding Dickerson wearing red pinstripes beyond this 162, management would require $14 million AAV each for multiple campaigns to retain his services. Of course, he provided a consistent spark to the lineup with his .300 average and power.
While Dickerson was the last favorite in left field, the Fightins had produced a 33-25 mark with a two-game lead over the Atlanta Braves prior to Andrew McCutchen‘s season-ending knee injury. In fact, the offense was at its strongest with him leading off.
2020’s Competitive-balance threshold of $208 million AAV with stronger penalties for exceeding $228 million AAV and $248 million AAV maximum (75 percent tax for overage):
- Phillies beginning amount: $194.2 million AAV.
- Minus $25.6 million AAV for $168.6 million AAV.
- Add Cole’s $30 million AAV for $198.6 million AAV.
- Add Hamels’ $20 million AAV for $218.6 million AAV.
- Add Smith’s $11 million AAV for $229.6 million AAV.
- Add Hudson’s $8 million AAV for $237.6 million AAV.
- Add Realmuto’s $19 million AAV for $256.6 million AAV.
- Add Dickerson’s $14 million AAV for $270.6 million AAV.
- Add Hernandez’s raise of $2.3 million AAV for $272.9 million AAV.
- Add Franco’s raise of $1.3 million AAV for $274.2 million AAV.
With Jay Bruce signed through ’20 and the Seattle Mariners paying all but $2.75 million , he will be the left-side bat off the bench, will fill in for McCutchen, and will be insurance if the injury bug bites again. And Bruce can hold his own with regular playing time.
As for returning players, some fans have stated they can tolerate (their word) Hernandez for one final summer, while others would keep Franco. Meantime, some locals may not realize Odubel Herrera will continue receiving the full balance of his contract once his suspension is over.
MiLB reinforcements:
For many Phillies faithful, the pipeline offers an immediate remedy for the parent club’s shortcomings. And Scott Kingery is the best illustration of this thinking’s accuracy: He hit .313 for the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils in 2017’s first half. Fans’ translation: He’s a surefire .300 MLB star held back by know-nothings.
Kingery averaged .294 in the second half of ’17 for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, and the demands grew louder. Yes, he spent a year’s development in Double-A and Triple-A because the front office also wanted to know how he handled adversity. In the majors, he faced it!
While Kingery hit only .226 in his first of three developmental 162s for the red pinstripes, he’s now around .260 for his second campaign. General managing 101: A player makes an impact in or after his third season. In other words, fans expected a star in 2017, not 2020 or 2021.
Unfortunately, supporters who believe Bohm is ready now will not be happy when he opens ’20 with the Allentown affiliate and must earn his advancement to the Show. That stated, he may end up with better numbers than Kingery’s rookie year but nowhere near Hoskins’ first two months as a major leaguer.
While MLB starters fire strikes at a 70 percent clip, Double-A hurlers are accurate at only 40 percent. And Double-A throwers rely mostly on their fastballs with secondary pitches being a work in the early stages of progress. For batters, though, facing more polished moundsmen takes time, preparation and self-confidence.
Pitching-wise, Howard has only logged 30 2/3 innings with Reading or a quarter of 2019, and he’ll return and hopefully earn a promotion to Lehigh Valley. But he’ll need the consistency of 70 percent strikes (not 40 percent) and secondary offerings for MLB competition. Otherwise, veterans will feast on his lack of development.
Winning and losing:
Compared to the Phillies, the 2018 Boston Red Sox exceeded the competitive-balance threshold by $42.5 million AAV, and their penalty was $11.95 million. Details: The Luxury Tax limit was $197 million AAV, and their tally was $239.5 million AAV. But $22 million AAV involved signing Martinez and eventual World Series victory.
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For 2019, through, Boston is at $244.3 million AAV with the highest penalty above $246 million AAV. But Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations, couldn’t re-up Kimbrel and setup man Kelly with a 75 percent tax rate on roughly $29 million increasing it to $50.75 million. Yes, their supporters had their expectations doused.
Due to limited financial restrictions of his own making, Dombrowski had holes because of free agency, and he was at a major disadvantage with that 75 percent penalty limiting his moves. Well, the Red Sox owner fired Dombrowski for 2019’s dismal and somewhat predictable outcome.
If the Fightins based their roster on unlimited spending for top free agents and their fan’s favorite players, this unrealistic tally demonstrates the totality involved. Basically, when someone thinks in terms of a piece or two here and another somewhere else, the supporter only views the cost of one star, not four.
2020’s Competitive-balance threshold of $208 million AAV with stronger penalties for exceeding $228 million AAV and $248 million AAV maximum (75 percent penalty for overage):
- Phillies beginning amount: $194.2 million AAV.
- Minus $25.6 million AAV for $168.6 million AAV.
- Add Cole’s $30 million AAV for 198.6 million AAV.
- Add Hamels’ $20 million AAV for $218.6 million AAV.
- Add Smith’s $11 million AAV for $229.6 million AAV.
- Add Hudson’s $8 million AAV for $237.6 million AAV.
- Add Realmuto’s $19 million AAV for $256.6 million AAV.
- Add Dickerson’s $14 million AAV for $270.6 million AAV.
- Add Hernandez’s raise of $2.3 million AAV for $272.9 million AAV.
- Add Franco’s raise of $1.3 million AAV for $274.2 million AAV.
Penalties for the above spending:
- Exceeding $208 million AAV: $4 million (20 percent tax).
- Exceeding $228 million AAV: $6.5 million (32.5 percent rate).
- Exceeding $248 million AAV: $19.7 million (75 percent penalty).
- Total: $30.2 million to increase the tally to $304.4 million AAV.
Without a doubt, the red pinstripes will spend nowhere near this amount because they would easily have the largest big league payroll and exceed the highest tax threshold by almost $30 million AAV with a penalty in the same neighborhood. But this is merely the cost for wishful thinkers.
If the Phils had these fan-oriented costs with increases every July and offseason, they would be running their organization differently than the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and Boston. Basically, no franchise has unlimited spending, so disagreeing with one is disagreeing with? All 30!
Next. Phillies: Dollars and sense for 2020. dark
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