MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-25

In week-25 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,”, the Milwaukee Brewers have looked to their depth to keep the team afloat in the National League wild-card race. Last Sunday veteran Ryan Braun, a key part of that depth, showed that he certainly can be counted upon.

Trailing the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 and down to his last strike, Braun delivered a grand slam home run that provided just enough margin for a 7-6 Brewers victory.

The hit also gave Milwaukee a series win, and most importantly fueled what has developed into a stretch of 11 victories in 13 games down the stretch since Yelich’s injury.

Not surprisingly, it turned out to be the most pivotal base hit of the season’s penultimate week, swinging the odds on that day from 83 percent in favor of St. Louis to 96 percent in favor of Milwaukee.

Braun’s slam was actually one of two dramatic bags-loaded homers this week. Toronto’s Randal Grichuk also hit one in the ninth inning that turned around the Jays’ Wednesday game with Baltimore. That was the week’s second most statistically influential hit.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

10. Mark Canha, Oakland Athletics, 39 percent

Leading off in this week’s MLB Rankings, the Athletics lead the American League wild-card race largely due to their performance in games such as the one contested Wednesday night against the Kansas City Royals in Oakland.

Based purely on performance, the Riyals shouldn’t have given Oakland much of a fight. Kansas City entered the game with only a slim hope of avoiding 100 losses on the season, and with the American League’s third-highest staff earned run average.

On this night, however, Danny Duffy and four Royals relievers battled Homer Bailey and three A’s relievers to a scoreless draw through 10 innings. Duffy allowed just two base hits and just three baserunners through his seven innings of work.

All the Royals needed was one well-timed base hot, and finally, in the top of the 11th, they got their chance when Jorge Soler, the American League’s home run leader, faced J.B. Wendelken with the bases full and two out.

But Wendelken maintained the suspense by whiffing Soler on a 1-2 pitch, sending the game into the bottom of the 11th.

In the bottom of that same inning, Jurickson Profar nudged the window of Oakland opportunity open by drawing a leadoff base on balls against Jesse Hahn, the sixth Royals pitcher. Hahn struck out Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman, but when Profar stole second the Royals elected to walk Matt Olson and take their chances with Canha.

In retrospect, it was the wrong move. With a  1-2 count, the right-handed hitting Canha punched a double down the right-field line to score Profar with the game’s first, last and only run. The victory allowed the Athletics to maintain what at the time was a two-game advantage over the Rays for the AL’s first wild-card spot.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

9. Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles, 40 percent

Judging by the standings, Saturday’s game between the Orioles and Seattle Mariners in Baltimore was a nothing burger. But the 22,556 fans who paid their way into Camden Yards to watch it came away feeling energized by an energetically fought contest.

Baltimore built an early lead, Seattle tied it, Baltimore jumper back in front, Seattle overcame that, then Baltimore sent the game into extra innings, where the Mariners eventually prevailed in 13. That ought to be enough excitement from a pair of last-place clubs.

Hays’ moment arose in the bottom of the eighth and it followed Mariner heroics…more on those later. Suffice for the moment to say that the home team trailed 6-4 at the time.

Seattle reliever Sam Tuivalala, who had recorded the final out of the seventh, stayed in to begin the eighth but walked Anthony Santander. Tuivalala got Renato Nunez and Jonathan Villar on strikes, then faced Hay, who since his September call-up has shown some promise.

Hays entered the game having hit safely in his three most recent appearances, and in six of his 13 games since being promoted. That evening, however, he had managed nothing more profound than a couple of groundouts.

But when Tuivalala fell behind 2-1, Hays lined the next pitch deep into the left-field seats for only the third home run of his sparse big league career. The shot evened the score at 6-6, where it remained until the Mariners pushed across the winning run in the 13th.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

8. Austin Dean, Miami Marlins, 41 percent

Saturday’s game between the Nationals and Marlins in Miami will be remembered for Washington’s spectacular six-run ninth inning outburst that turned a thriller into a 10-4 Washington win. The final margin belies the closeness of the game itself.

In fact, from a statistical standpoint, the most mission-critical hit wasn’t delivered in that ninth inning, and it didn’t come off the bat of a National.

Washington led 4-0 entering the bottom of the eighth inning when Nats manager Dave Martinez decided that Stephen Strasburg’s 109 pitches were enough of a workload. He summoned Fernando Rodney from the notorious Washington bullpen to finish the victory, and hopefully the shutout.

Not so fast. Miguel Rojas greeted Rodney with a double, and one out later Starlin Castro doubled him home. A walk and a single loaded the bases for Dean.

With the tying runs on base, Dean quickly fell behind 1-2. But he shortened up and got enough of Rodney’s next pitch to yank a double into the left-field corner. All three runners raced around the bases to tie the game at 4-4. By itself, Dean’s double shifted the odds of a Marlins win from just 24 percent to 65 percent.

It didn’t work out that way thanks to Washington’s six-run ninth, which kept the visitors in command of the National League wild-card race.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

7. Mitch Moreland, Boston Red Sox, 41 percent

This has been a disconcerting season for the defending World Series champions, especially by comparison with their two primary divisional rivals, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays.

The Red Sox are a combined 12-25 against the two teams ahead of them in the AL East, a synoptic explanation for their failure to reach the 2019 post-season. Saturday in St. Petersburg, the Rays handed the Red Sox one more bit of evidence delineating the difference in a 5-4, 11-inning defeat.

Although the contest ended badly for the champs, it was not without its moments. One of those occurred in the eighth inning when the visitors demonstrated that they haven’t given up on the season entirely.

Tampa led 3-1 entering the top of the eighth, with reliever Nick Anderson assigned the task of getting the game uneventfully to the ninth. Since his acquisition from Miami, Anderson has been good at the task, pitching 20 innings for Tampa and allowing just five runs, a 2.25 ERA.

Nobody, however, is infallible, including Anderson. After fanning Marco Hernandez to open the inning, Anderson surrendered base hit to Mookie Betts, bringing Rafael Devers to the plate representing the tying run. Devers homered, sending the game into extra innings.

The game moved uneventfully into the top of the 11th, with Rays reliever Diego Castillo retiring the first two batters he faced in that inning. Then like a bolt, Moreland delivered, his first-pitch home run thrusting Boston into its first lead.

Staring at only a 39 percent chance of victory when Moreland stepped in, the Red Sox had an 80 percent chance of winning as he touched home plate.

The home-standing Rays, however, still had three outs left. As will be elaborated upon shortly, they made good use of them.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

5. Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks, 46 percent

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ late run at a National League wild-card spot has fallen victim to Milwaukee’s stretch run. But the D-Backs will be credited with a spirited fight exemplified by their Monday performance against the Miami Marlins in Phoenix.

Arizona took the field with only slim post-season prospects, six games out of the race and needing every win. Then to make matters more dire, Miami overcame a 3-0 Arizona advantage with five seventh-inning runs capped by Jon Berti’s two-run producing single off Yoshihisa Hirano.

In the bottom of the inning, Arizona immediately set to the task of reconstructing its lead.  Two base hits sandwiched around a wild pitch produced one run and following two walks plus two outs Lamb came to the plate.

Trailing by a run and with the bases full, it was the consummate pivotal moment. The odds still made Miami a 58 percent favorite to hold on and win the game, but Lamb shifted those with a double down the right-field line.

Abraham Almonte and Wilmer Flores both scored, and when Marlins pitcher Tyler Kinney threw wildly attempting to retire Lamb, Eduardo Escobar came all the way around from first with a third run.

That gave Arizona a 7-5 lead, and the Diamondbacks’ pen was up to the challenge of acquiring the final six outs.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

4. Nate Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays, 54 percent

Moreland’s 11th inning home run (see above)  had given Boston a 4-3 lead over Tampa Bay entering the bottom of the 11th inning of their game Saturday in St. Petersburg.

With the Rays clinging to a small advantage over Cleveland for the second American League wild-card spot, the Rays needed every victory they could get, including over the defending World Series champions.

Having already burned through nine members of his bullpen – including his three top closers – Red sox manager Alex Cora turned to lightly used Josh Smith to get the final three outs. Signed as a free agent in May following his release by the Seattle Mariners, Smith had pitched only sparingly and had been touched up for a 5.90 ERA in 29 innings.

The Rays wasted no time exposing Smith’s liabilities. Leadoff batter Travis d’Arnaud worked a 3-1 count, then drove a double into the left-center field gap. That put the tying run in scoring position for Lowe, and improved Tampa’s chances at victory from just 21 percent to 46 percent…nearly a 50-50 shot.

Lowe, a reserve infielder who Is not even the best Lowe on the Rays – that would be second baseman Brandon – came up having been held hitless in his four previous at-bats as that day’s DH. But when Smith fell behind 2-0, the left-handed Lowe looked fastball down the middle, got one, and drove it inside the left-field foul pole for a game-winning home run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

3. J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners, 58 percent

As previously noted, Saturday’s Mariners-Orioles game was a thriller out of proportion to its insignificance in the standings. Although Crawford’s role played out early in the eventual 13-run decision, it was pivotal.

Baltimore had held a 4-3 advantage through the sixth and seventh innings. Obviously, given the Orioles’ 50-104 record, one-run leads are not exactly impermeable, especially with three innings yet to play. Still, the Orioles held a 65 percent chance of winning when the eighth inning began.

Omar Narvaez singled to start the eighth, and a wild pitch advanced him as far as second. In the interim, however, Dee Gordon lined out and Mallex Smith grounded out. After Shed Long walked, Crawford got his chance and made the most of it. He laced a three-run home run into the seats in left-center.

That gave Seattle the 6-4 advantage, and concurrently swung the odds of a Mariner victory all the way to 83 percent.  It was those odds that Austin Hays counter-balance with his own home run in the bottom of the eighth…see above.

The contest lingered undecided until the 13th when Seattle’s Tim Lopes managed an infield hit that scored Smith, who had reached on an error by pitcher Tanner Scott.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

2. Randal Grichuk, Toronto Blue Jays, 71 percent

With their raft of developing talent, the Toronto Blue Jays are poised for improvement in 2020. But at least one of their veterans isn’t ready to give up on 2019 just yet.

Randal Grichuk’s home run turned a four-run Baltimore lead into an unlikely Blue Jays victory Wednesday in Baltimore.

The Jays suffered the short end of it almost all the way Wednesday. Extra base hits by Rio Ruiz, Austin Hays, and Trey Mancini staked Baltimore to a quick 4-1 lead, and it was 7-1 when Jonathan Villar and Anthony Santander homered in the fourth.

The score was 9-5 entering the ninth, giving Baltimore a 98 percent chance of victory based on the statistical probabilities.

Then, suddenly, things got interesting. With one out, Rowdy Tellez walked, Richard Urena singled and Billy McKinney also walked.

Miguel Castro, the Orioles reliever tasked with protecting that four-run lead, fanned Bo Bichette for a second out. But Cavan Biggio singled to score Tellez, and that left the bases full for Grichuk.

This was a very big week for dramatic grand slams. Three days after Braun hit his to beat St. Louis, Grichuck tied into a 3-1 Castro pitch and powered it into the left-field seats to thrust Toronto on top 10-9.

The Jays added an insurance run that proved pivotal when Baltimore’s D.J. Stewart doubled home a run in the bottom of the ninth. But the six-run Toronto ninth proved too much to overcome; the Jays walked off an 11-10 winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-25

1. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers, 73 percent

Finishing up this week’s MLB Rankings, the series outcome hung in the balance when the Cardinals and Brewers concluded their season series Sunday in St. Louis. Before a delighted home crowd, the Cardinals had romped to a 10-0 win Friday night only to see Milwaukee recover from an early 2-0 deficit Saturday to win 5-2.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Sunday’s finale played out in similar fashion. The Cardinals seized 4-2 lead through seven innings, then entrusted the outcome to their usually reliable bullpen. Not today, however. Lorenzo Cain’s base hit pulled the Brewers within a run in the eighth, and in the ninth inning, John Gant walked the tying and lead runners on base to begin the inning.

That’s often a poor strategy, and it turned out to be deadly Sunday. After Gant struck out Trent Grisham, Yasmani Grandal also walked to load the bases. That was enough for Cardinal manager Mike Shildt, who lifted Gant in favor of Tyler Webb. He got Mike Moustakas on a harmless fly ball to shallow right field for the inning’s second out.

Shildt then summoned Junior Fernandez to face Braun. The rookie worked the count full, delivered a changeup in on Braun’s hands that he fouled off, then made the mistake of missing over the plate with a breaking ball. Braun hammered it into the seats in deep left-center for his grand slam and a 7-4 Brewers lead.

Even that didn’t quite finalized the outcome because St. Louis rebounded in the bottom of the ninth for a pair of runs on Tommy Edman’s two-run homer off Josh Hader. But Hader finally extinguished the comeback attempt, striking out Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill to complete the victory.