Nationals: Two calls to the pen could punch ticket to the NLDS

In a season that has seen the Washington Nationals bullpen post an NL-worst 5.77 ERA, could two arms out of relief be Washington’s secret weapon to an NLDS-berth?

With all due respect, I’m not talking about relievers like Washington Nationals RP Fernando Rodney or the formerly-dominant Sean Doolittle.

Enter the $530 million three-headed monster that comprises the front end of Washington’s starting rotation. The Nationals could bypass its greatest weakness by deploying a mix of Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer in its 163rd game of the season.

While the Nationals likely wildcard matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers may seem intimidating given the latter team’s 19-4 record in September despite losing MVP-candidate Christian Yelich, the Brew Crew’s stoic run can largely be attributed to its MLB-best 2.58 ERA in the month.

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In fact, the Brewers’ hitters lead the NL with a 27.6 strikeout percentage. Unleashing three pitchers that all rank in the top five in strikeouts in the NL should only exacerbate Milwaukee’s greatest shortcoming.

The trio of Strasburg, Corbin, and Scherzer has posted herculean strikeout rates during its first trip through the order this season — boasting an 11.96 K/9 against their first nine batters faced. The question then becomes — who follows who?

The numbers point to letting Strasburg throw the first pitch. The Nationals’ 2009 first-round draft pick has held hitters to .192 batting average and has struck out a third of batters he faced the first time through a lineup this season. Strasburg also generates the greatest percentage of soft contact among the trio through the first nine batters faced, as his 19.3% soft contact rate outpaces Scherzer’s 15.3% and Corbin’s 13.1%.

Strasburg’s 26.3% hard-hit percentage the first time through the order is also the lowest of the pack — as it’s nearly eight points below Scherzer’s 34.1% rate and 11 points lower than Corbin’s 37.1% hard-hit percentage.

Corbin slots in well to cover the middle innings, as Nationals fans have gotten accustomed to holding their breath while watching Corbin pitch in the first inning. The lone southpaw of the three labored to a 4.78 ERA in the first inning this season, despite having an ERA below 3.50 in all other innings. The lefty seems to pitch is best in mid-game situations, as he worked to a 2.92 ERA in innings four through six and held hitters to a paltry .232 batting average.

That leaves none other than the Nats’ ace of aces to channel his inner Goose Gossage and come on for the old fashioned multiple innings save. Scherzer’s woes since coming off the injured list have been well documented — most notably his six home runs allowed over five starts — but Scherzer has proven that he can succeed in situations that mean the most.

In 2019 alone, Scherzer has held hitters to a 0.94 batting average in high leverage situations, according to Baseball-Reference. BR defines high leverage situations as moments in a game in which dramatic swings in win probability are possible, such as pitching with a runner on second late in a tie game. Scherzer has allowed just two earned runs in 10 such innings this year.

Over the course of his career, Scherzer has struck out hitters at the highest rate in high leverage situations. His 33.9% strikeout rate in these situations outpaces his K% in situations of low or medium leverage by more than four percentage points. The same can be said about his fielding independent pitching (FIP) over the course of his career. Scherzer’s 2.52 FIP in high leverage situations is nearly 60 points lower than his 3.10 FIP in low leverage situations or 3.23 FIP in medium leverage situations.

While employing starting pitchers in uncharted territory comes with inherent risk, the Nationals’ greatest strength matches up perfectly against the Brewers’ glaring weakness. It all depends on whether Davey Martinez and company chose to go all in.