Phillies: NL East’s bidding war for 2020

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From $3 million to $20 million per 162, the Phillies and their divisional competitors will have some relief options, but each franchise has their own monetary limitations. Basically, there could be five possibilities: three free agents, one opt-out candidate and one trade chip. But, realistically, other avenues are remote.

Opting out is available to Aroldis Chapman, who has $34.4 million guaranteed if he declines this opportunity. Though, if he opts out, he’d probably have an asking price of $20 million per campaign for five summers. But no NL East team will be shopping in this high-end neighborhood.

Dollarwise, a player’s current salary escalates from that point, but free-agent bidding results in a steeper increase than a re-signing. To illustrate, Will Smith will probably receive $11 million AAV (average annual value) per season up from 2019’s salary of $4.2 million. With, though, a save rate of 89.5 percent, Smith has earned it.

Concerning his up-and-down career, Daniel Hudson has experienced a high of $5.5 million each in 2017 and 2018 to a drop with 2019’s MiLB deal for $1.5 million plus $1.5 million in incentives. So, his ceiling will probably be $8 million AAV for 2-3 years due to a seller’s market for late-inning firemen.

Phillies targets for late-inning hurlers (* left-hander):

• *Chapman, 31.5: 59 Gms., 56 Inn., 2.25 ERA, 37 Saves and 5 BS.
  Four-seam fastball: 98.3-mph average and 102.3-mph max.
• *Smith, 30: 63 Gms., 65 1/3 Inn., 2.76 ERA, 34 Saves and 4 BS.
  Four-seam fastball: 92.9-mph average and 95.7-mph max.
• Hudson, 32.5: 67 Gms., 71 Inn., 2.54 ERA, 7 Saves and 11 Holds.
  Four-seam fastball: 96.4-mph average and 98.8-mph max.
• Harris, 35: 67 Gms., 59 2/3 Inn., 1.51 ERA, 3 Saves and 26 Holds.
  Cutters at 57.9 percent and curveballs at 42.1 percent.
• Givens, 29: 57 Gms., 62 Inn., 4.65 ERA, 11 Saves and 7 Holds.
  Four-seam fastball: 95.7-mph average and 99.5-mph max.

Finesse pitcher Will Harris, 35, is the oldest here, but he has a solid track record for the last five campaigns, although ’19 has been a career year. Ergo, he might receive an increase from $4.2 million to $6 million AAV for two summers as a setup man.

The youngest at 29, Mychal Givens is a fireballer, and many clubs have interest in hard-throwing relievers with endgame potential. In fact, Klentak was a suitor for the hurler in late July, and the exec may be willing to swap prospects to the Baltimore Orioles for his two seasons of control with a $3 million arbitration estimate.

Eastern rivals:       

While some Phillies fans believe the Braves, Nationals and Mets have superior bullpens, those three organizations would have interest in Hector Neris. For instance, Atlanta has Mark Melancon closing because Shane Greene‘s success with the Detroit Tigers was in low-stress situations, not a playoff run. Yes, they were July acquisitions.

After the Braves had moved their injured closer to the Seattle Mariners, they demoted their setup man to Triple-A. In other words, their pen was iffy and is still a shortcoming. Plus they are on the hook for $14 million in ’20 for Melancon, and that could be around 30 percent of their available finances to defend their NL East crown.

Regarding Washington, their manager had extended his top starters into the seventh and eighth frames with only Sean Doolittle finishing off the opposition. Their eighth inning had been an abyss until they picked up Hudson from the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately, he will be a free agent unlike their other additions.

With Anthony Rendon cashing in on a hefty contract, the Nats will either have limited funds to re-up Hudson if they re-sign their third sacker, or they’ll spend on a middle-of-the-order bat and Hudson. Again, it will be a challenging winter for their front office.

As for the Metropolitans, they had accepted Cano’s $120 million commitment for five remaining campaigns to acquire Edwin Diaz, but the flamethrower had trouble pitching under York City’s glaring lights. To make matters worse, they had re-signed Jeurys Familia, their 2018 closer, as his setup man; and he also proved unreliable.

Ending the 162 with Seth Lugo performing two-frame saves, their first-year GM will be under the microscope with the vocal New York fandom. This offseason, though, the Mets will have money due to their upcoming free agents, but they’ll need those dollars for replacements and relievers.

No easy assignment:

While some Phillies faithful expect two starters and two standout relievers, they want the top free agents, but the roster has too many holes to accommodate that expenditure. However, adding the pieces to be competitive is realistic if you ink a two-slot starter and a bottom-rung arm instead of an ace.

In the pen, Klentak can pick up a late-inning arm to pair with Neris for critical frames and an inexpensive setup man for the sixth or seventh innings. Hopefully, Dominguez will be able to avoid Tommy John surgery and handle some endgame workload, while healing relievers will be healthy as well.

Financially, management can spent $20 million AAV for two rotation pieces, $14 million AAV for two firemen, and $19 million AAV for J.T. Realmuto: a tally of $54 million AAV. But the balance would only be $1.4 million in raises for the 40-man roster in ’20.

Among trade candidates, the closers for the Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds are distant possibilities. But those franchises will probably have an exorbitant asking price the Phils and their divisional foes would balk at. So, can the offseason determine the 2020 NL East race? Yes!

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

(Stats through Sept. 27)

Phillies targets’ effectiveness toward 75-80 percent:  

• LH Chapman: 48 good, 1 so-so and 10 bad (0 blowups) out of 59 total for 83%
• LH Smith: 47 good, 3 so-so and 13 bad (0 blowups) out of 63 total for 79.4%
• Hudson: 45 good, 5 so-so and 17 bad (1 blowup) out of 67 total for 74.6%
  With Washington: 16 good, 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 23 total for 82.6%
• Harris: 52 good, 6 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 66 total for 87.9%
• Givens: 37 good, 1 so-so and 19 bad (3 blowups) out of 57 total for 66.7%
  A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.

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Phillies targets’ arsenal: 

• LH Chapman’s four-seam fastball: 579 for 59.1 percent
  with a 98.3-mph average and a 102.3-mph high.
  Slider: 302 for 30.8 percent.
  Sinker: 98 for 10 percent.
• LH Smith’s four-seam fastball: 487 for 47 percent
  with a 92.9-mph average and a 95.7-mph high.
  Slider: 439 for 42.3 percent.
  Curveball: 92 for 8.9 percent.
• Hudson four-seam fastball: 770 for 64 percent
  with a 96.4-mph average and a 98.7-mph high.
  Slider: 280 for 23.3 percent.
  Sinker: 83 for 6.9 percent.
  Changeup: 71 for 6 percent.
• Harris’ cutter: 522 for 57.9 percent.
  Curveball: 379 for 42.1 percent.
• Givens’ four-seam fastball: 744 for 70.5 percent
  with a 95.7-mph average and a 99.5-mph high.
  Slider: 165 for 15.6 percent.
  Curveball: 146 for 13.8 percent.

Phillies targets’ stats through Sept 27: 

• LH Chapman, 31.5: 59 Gms., 56 Inn., a 2.25 ERA, 37 Saves, 5 BS, a 2.31 FIP, a 2.86 xFIP, a 3.12 SIERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP.
• LH Smith, 30: 63 Gms., 65 1/3 Inn., a 2.76 ERA, 34 Saves, 4 BS, a 3.24 FIP, a 2.74 xFIP, a 2.72 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.

Hudson, 32.5:

• Total: 68 Gms. (1 opener), 72 Inn., a 2.50 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 4.04 FIP, a 5.17 xFIP, a 4.38 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
  Nationals: 23 Gms., 24 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.95 WHIP.
• Harris, 35: 66 Gms., 58 2/3 Inn., a 1.53 ERA, 3 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.26 FIP, a 3.11 xFIP, a 3.20 SIERA, a 1.0 fWAR and a 0.95 WHIP.
• Givens, 29: 57 Gms., 62 Inn., a 4.65 ERA, 11 Saves, 7 Holds, a 4.53 FIP, a 3.60 xFIP, a 3.41 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.20 WHIP.

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.