Phillies: NL East’s bidding war for 2020

LAKELAND, FL - MARCH 02: A group of official Rawlings Major League baseballs and a Sharpie marker sit on a railing prior to the Spring Training game between the Miami Marlins and the Detroit Tigers at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on March 2, 2018 in Lakeland, Florida. The Tigers defeated the Marlins 8-3. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
LAKELAND, FL - MARCH 02: A group of official Rawlings Major League baseballs and a Sharpie marker sit on a railing prior to the Spring Training game between the Miami Marlins and the Detroit Tigers at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on March 2, 2018 in Lakeland, Florida. The Tigers defeated the Marlins 8-3. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 5
Next
Phillies
A combination of Harris ($6 million AAV) and Hudson ($8 million AAV) are a possibility for $14 million AAV. Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images. /

Top to bottom:       

From $3 million to $20 million per 162, the Phillies and their divisional competitors will have some relief options, but each franchise has their own monetary limitations. Basically, there could be five possibilities: three free agents, one opt-out candidate and one trade chip. But, realistically, other avenues are remote.

Opting out is available to Aroldis Chapman, who has $34.4 million guaranteed if he declines this opportunity. Though, if he opts out, he’d probably have an asking price of $20 million per campaign for five summers. But no NL East team will be shopping in this high-end neighborhood.

Dollarwise, a player’s current salary escalates from that point, but free-agent bidding results in a steeper increase than a re-signing. To illustrate, Will Smith will probably receive $11 million AAV (average annual value) per season up from 2019’s salary of $4.2 million. With, though, a save rate of 89.5 percent, Smith has earned it.

Concerning his up-and-down career, Daniel Hudson has experienced a high of $5.5 million each in 2017 and 2018 to a drop with 2019’s MiLB deal for $1.5 million plus $1.5 million in incentives. So, his ceiling will probably be $8 million AAV for 2-3 years due to a seller’s market for late-inning firemen.

Phillies targets for late-inning hurlers (* left-hander):

  • *Chapman, 31.5: 59 Gms., 56 Inn., 2.25 ERA, 37 Saves and 5 BS.
    Four-seam fastball: 98.3-mph average and 102.3-mph max.
  • *Smith, 30: 63 Gms., 65 1/3 Inn., 2.76 ERA, 34 Saves and 4 BS.
    Four-seam fastball: 92.9-mph average and 95.7-mph max.
  • Hudson, 32.5: 67 Gms., 71 Inn., 2.54 ERA, 7 Saves and 11 Holds.
    Four-seam fastball: 96.4-mph average and 98.8-mph max.
  • Harris, 35: 67 Gms., 59 2/3 Inn., 1.51 ERA, 3 Saves and 26 Holds.
    Cutters at 57.9 percent and curveballs at 42.1 percent.
  • Givens, 29: 57 Gms., 62 Inn., 4.65 ERA, 11 Saves and 7 Holds.
    Four-seam fastball: 95.7-mph average and 99.5-mph max.

Finesse pitcher Will Harris, 35, is the oldest here, but he has a solid track record for the last five campaigns, although ’19 has been a career year. Ergo, he might receive an increase from $4.2 million to $6 million AAV for two summers as a setup man.

The youngest at 29, Mychal Givens is a fireballer, and many clubs have interest in hard-throwing relievers with endgame potential. In fact, Klentak was a suitor for the hurler in late July, and the exec may be willing to swap prospects to the Baltimore Orioles for his two seasons of control with a $3 million arbitration estimate.