MLB Rankings: The greatest hits of the season’s final week

DENVER, COLORADO - SEPTEMBER 28: Sam Hilliard #43 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a home in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field on September 28, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO - SEPTEMBER 28: Sam Hilliard #43 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a home in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field on September 28, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
(Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

In the final “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits” of the season, we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In the final “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” Arizona defeated St. Louis in 19 innings, a game extended several times by the interference of a Diamondback reserve. That same night, Trea Turner’s grand slam lifted Washington to a critical win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

One night later, Matt Chapman’s home run rallied Oakland into a command position in the American League wild-card race. Then on Saturday night, Sam Hilliard pricked Milwaukee’s NL Central bubble with a ninth-inning blast off ace closer Josh Hader.

Finally, on Sunday, Mets reserve, Dominic Smith tied a bow on the entire season with a dramatic walk-off three-run home run against the Atlanta Braves that determined…nothing, actually. But it was dramatic.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.