MLB Rankings: The greatest hits of the season’s final week

In the final “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits” of the season, we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In the final “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” Arizona defeated St. Louis in 19 innings, a game extended several times by the interference of a Diamondback reserve. That same night, Trea Turner’s grand slam lifted Washington to a critical win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

One night later, Matt Chapman’s home run rallied Oakland into a command position in the American League wild-card race. Then on Saturday night, Sam Hilliard pricked Milwaukee’s NL Central bubble with a ninth-inning blast off ace closer Josh Hader.

Finally, on Sunday, Mets reserve, Dominic Smith tied a bow on the entire season with a dramatic walk-off three-run home run against the Atlanta Braves that determined…nothing, actually. But it was dramatic.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

10. Ildemaro Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks, 46 percent

Arizona’s marathon 19-inning, 6-hour, 53-minute victory Tuesday will go down as the game that almost scuttled St. Louis’s chances of winning the NL Central. It sent the Cardinals into a four-game losing skid, and only Milwaukee’s failure to win its season-closing series in Colorado preserved the Cards’ hold on the division title.

But for Vargas, the two teams might still be playing. Of course, if it weren’t for Vargas, they would have long since been tucked in bed by nearly 2 a.m. Arizona time, when the contest finally concluded.

Vargas entered the game as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth and still managed to get four hits. The first of them, a one-out home run, was statistically the biggest. It swung the Arizona odds from just 12 percent to 59 percent.

He singled again with two out in the 11th only to retired due to what turned out to be overly aggressive base-running.

In the 13th, after Paul Goldschmidt’s home run gave St. Louis a 2-1 lead, Arizona re-tied the game on Caleb Joseph’s base hit.

Vargas opened the bottom of the 16th with a double, but his teammates failed to move him around.

His 19th inning walk-off single came with two out and the bases loaded thanks to a pair of singles and an intentional walk.  By that time, the actuaries had already conceded Arizona a 66 percent chance of winning, so his walk-off wasn’t quite as dramatic as his game-tying shot so many hours earlier.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

9. Michael Conforto, New York Mets, 46 percent

What kind of season might it have been for the Mets if they had played like they did the final week? The answer is a cardiac kind. New York won six of its final eight games, two in walk-off fashion. Both of those games pivoted on hits that ranked among the week’s 10 most critical.

The action warmed up Tuesday night at home against the Miami Marlins. Miami grabbed a quick 4-0 lead only to see Conforto’s seventh-inning home run pull the Mets within a pair.

Then nothing much happened for a full turn through the New York batting order.  Aside from a fielding error, Marlins pitchers retired six consecutive Mets hitters through the seventh and eighth, that streak only ending when J.D. Davis managed an infield single to lead off the ninth. Up stepped Conforto again, this time facing Jose Urena.

If Conforto’s first home run was big, his second was colossal. On a 1-2 pitch, he lined it over the right-field wall for a game-tying two runs. As Conforto stood in, the odds of a Mets win measured just 18 percent. When he touched home plate, they were 64 percent.

Conforto also had a hand in the eventual game-winning rally, although it wasn’t much of a rally. He drew a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 11th. A hit by a pitch, a wild pitch, intentional walk and force out of Conforto at home left the bases full for Brandon Nimmo, who also walked, forcing the winning run across the plate.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

8. Anthony Alford, Toronto Blue Jays, 46 percent

What could possibly make an extra-inning, late-season game between two sub-.500 teams interesting? How about four rallies in the ninth inning or later?

That’s what the Orioles and Blue Jays gave what remained of the 13,000 who paid to get into Rogers Centre Monday. Baltimore led 9-7 with one out in the ninth when Cavan Biggio’s fly ball sent Jonathan Davis across the plate. One batter later, Vlad Guerrero Jr. singled to center, scoring Alford, pinch-running for Billy McKinney and tying the game.

That was not, however, Alford’s biggest moment. In fact, the fun was only starting. In the top of the 12th, Chris Davis homered to put Baltimore ahead 10-9. In the bottom of the inning, Guerrero reached on an error and came around to score on Jonathan Davis’ fly ball.

Alford tried to spark a conclusion in the bottom of the 13th. He led off the inning with a base hit, then stole second to put the winner in scoring position with none out. But Ryan Eades got an inning-ending double play to erase that threat.

Eades would not be so fortunate the second time he met up with Alford. After Eades retired the first two Jays, Alford teed up a 2-2 fastball and sent it into the seats in left field. The home run, delivered at nearly half past midnight, ended the game.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

6. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals, 49 percent

Washington’s five-game mid-week sweep of the Phillies sealed the Nationals’ effort to claim the National League’s first wild-card spot. Turner provided the most important hit.

It came in the middle game of that sweep, Washington having claimed a Monday doubleheader. After five innings Tuesday, however, Philadelphia led 4-2 and had Aaron Nola going strong.

Nola’s luck turned in the top of the sixth, and with it turned the game. Asdrubal Cabrera walked on a 3-2 pitch to open the inning, and one out later Victor Robles slipped a base hit through the hole between short and third.

Nola fanned Yan Gomes for the second out, but pinch hitter Howie Kendrick walked on another 3-2 pitch, loading the bases for Turner and prompting Gabe Kapler to remove Nola in favor of Jared Hughes.

It was one of those decisions that seemed logical at the time, Nola having thrown 115 pitches. Ah, but the best-laid plans of mice and men…  Turner greeted Hughes with a second-pitch grand slam over the left-center field fence, and Washington leaped from a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead.

Turner’s slam elevated Washington’s victory prospects by a full 50 percent, from just 31 to 81 percent. In time, they withstood a Bruce Harper home run to win 6-5, and two days later completed the sweep.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

5. John Hicks, Detroit Tigers, 53 percent

There wasn’t much reason to go to Guaranteed Rate Field on Chicago’s South Side Saturday, even for a double-header. On a dreary, rainy season-ending weekend, the twin bill pitted the improving but still mediocre White Sox against the godawful Detroit Tigers stuck with baseball’s worst record at 46-112 entering play.

To make things worse for the visitors, they got hammered 7-1 in the opener and trailed Chicago 2-1 through eight innings of the second game.

In the ninth, though, a pair of players in whom the Tigers have invested high hopes finally stepped up, enabling Detroit to get through the night with a split.

The Tigers also got help, in the form of Sox shortstop Tim Anderson’s throwing error on a ground ball by Ronny Rodriguez to start the inning. Alex Colome retired Dawel Lugo on a fly ball, but one of those youngsters, Travis Demeritte, grounded a single into left that sent Rodriguez to third base with the potential tying run.

That brought up Hicks, a three-year veteran, in a pinch-hit situation. This has not been a good season for Hicks, whose .210 batting average is well off both his 2018 and career levels. To make things more difficult, Colome got ahead 1-2 before making a mistake in the strike zone.

Hicks took full advantage, pulling a pitch down the left-field line for a three-run home run that gave Detroit a stunning 4-2 advantage. The Tigers scored more runs on that single swing than they had pushed across in all 17 innings played to that instant.

And even though Yoan Moncada’s ninth-inning home run moved the White Sox back within one run,  it was enough to seal an eventual 4-3 Tiger victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

4. Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks, 57 percent

The Diamondbacks’ furtive run for a National League wild-card spot was over by the time Saturday’s contest against the Padres began at Chase Field. Like most teams they were, by then, playing for mere pride.

But pride was something the Snakes frequently displayed in abundance during this over-achieving season, including Saturday. Trailing 5-1 entering the bottom of the seventh, they rallied for five runs to win 6-5, with Walker providing the decisive blow.

Like many rallies, this one began with a pitching change. Matt Strahm, San Diego’s third pitcher had worked a scoreless sixth, but only twice in the past month had he recorded more than three outs in an appearance, so interim manager Rod Barajas did the reactionary thing, lifting Strahm in favor of the “next man up,” in this case  David Bednar.

Given San Diego’s fourth-place standing in the NL West, the stakes weren’t especially high, but Barajas fell afoul of the principle of bullpen roulette. That’s the dictum, ignored by almost every manager these days, which stipulates that if you go to the pen frequently enough you will eventually find the guy who doesn’t have his stuff that day.

In Bednar’s case, he issued a one-out walk to Alex Avila, followed that by allowing pinch hitter Domingo Leyba to single and then offered up a double to Jarrod Dyson that pushed Avila across.

Josh Rojas followed with a  bases-loaded walk, and although Bednar did retire Eduardo Escobar – on a hot liner to short – that still brought Walker to the plate as the go-ahead run.

Walker extracted the fullest possible penalty on Bednar, slamming a 1-1 pitch over the wall in deep left-center for an odds-shifting grand slam.

Six outs remained to be gotten, but the D-Backs got them, Kevin Ginkel closing out the game by retiring Wil Myers with the tying run at second base.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

3. Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics, 58 percent

From a standpoint of pure impact on the pennant race, Chapman delivered the week’s most significant stroke Wednesday night in Anaheim.

In the battle for the AL wild card, the A’s led Tampa Bay by just a half-game with Cleveland just one game back when the contest began. Plainly this qualified as an Oakland “must-win.”

Trouble was the A’s weren’t winning. Behind Andrew Heaney, they managed only a 1-1 tie through six innings, and that situation deteriorated when Kaleb Stewart doubled to score Jared Walsh in the Los Angeles seventh.

Hansel Robles took the mound to begin the ninth intent on dealing a blow to Oakland’s post-season hopes. Marcus Semien tapped him for a leadoff hit, but Ramon Laureano’s weak sacrifice bunt in front of the plate barely managed to move the runner, Laureano being retired for the first out.

At that moment, just two outs remaining to their credit, the odds of a successful Athletic comeback measured just 23 percent.

Chapman, however, rendered Laureano’s sacrifice a pointless gesture. He hit Robles’ first pitch over the wall in dead center field for a two-run home run that shot Oakland into the lead for the first time all night.

When A’s closer Liam Hendriks retired the Angels in order in the bottom of the ninth, Oakland had its victory. It turned out to be a decisive one for the Indians fell 8-3 in Chicago, Tampa Bay also won.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

2. Kevin Newman, Pittsburgh Pirates, 84 percent

Is Kevin Newman on course to be the game’s best leadoff batter in the near future?

The question is a rhetorical one since, although Newman batted .310 with a .356 on-base average and 16 steals as a rookie, those skills had little to do with his impact on Friday night’s game.

On that particular occasion, rather, it was his work as a “clean up” man that stood out…cleanup in this case referring to cleaning up the entire affair.

Newman came to bat against Reds closer Raisel Iglesias in the ninth inning of a game the Reds led 5-4.  The Reds had assumed that advantage on Michael Lorenzen’s eighth inning base hit, which drove in Jose Iglesias, who had singled.

Iglesias entered in place of Lorenzen – who for the record moved to center field – and promptly surrendered a leadoff hit to Jake Elmore, following that by wild pitching him to second.

But then Iglesias steadied for the moment, retiring both Erik Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera. From the Reds’ standpoint, Newman was to be the game’s final out.

Newman had other ideas. On a 1-1 count, he lifted Iglesias’ pitch into the PNC Park seats in left field, a game-winning walk-off home run.

Although the hit didn’t count for much in the grand scheme – these were, after all, fourth and fifth place teams – it did swing the odds of a Pirate victory from a mere 16 percent to 100 percent, making it statistically among Pittsburgh’s biggest hits of the season.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of the Final Week

1. Dominic Smith, New York Mets, 91 percent

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This was sort of, on one level, but not really, the way Mets fans envisioned their season-ending: An extra-inning, game-winning home run to sink the division-rival Atlanta Braves…and win the pennant.

Except for the last clause, they got the script right Sunday.

Dominic Smith delivered the homer, a three-run 11th inning that shot erased a 6-4 Braves lead. After scoring in the ninth inning to tie the game, the Braves had built that lead on back-to-back 11th inning home runs by  Adeiny Hechavarria and Adam Duvall, off Walker Lockett, a September call-up who was serving in the team’s furtive hope that he might be an answer to New York’s notorious bullpen woes. Guess not.

To protect that lead, the Braves had called on veteran Jerry Blevins, who fanned Tomas Nido but not before surrendering a base hit to Luis Guillorme.

That fanning of Nido prompted Braves manager Brian Snitker’s call for another veteran, Anthony Swarzak, and the pattern repeated. Wilson Ramos singled and Rene Rivera struck out.

With two out, Snitker went to the pen a third time, summoning Grant Dayton. In this season when relievers made the situation worse as often as they improved it, Dayton fit right in. He threw two pitches to Smith, the first missing the strike zone and the second landing in the Citi Field bullpen.

Save for the fact that it delivered only some momentary excitement and not the hoped-for pennant, it was a dream finish.