2019 MLB Season: Rating the NL Central general managers

Milwaukee’s David Stearns again out-performed his fellow NL Central general managers. Pittsburgh’s Neal Huntington had by far the worst 2019 MLB season.

With each passing season, the role of front offices generally – and general managers in particular – grow in significance. The recent departures of such veteran field managers as Joe Maddon and Clint Hurdle should provide fresh evidence of that for any still requiring such evidence.

Front offices are assuming increasing roles in the determination of game strategy. Yet by far, their most important role remains what it has always been: the accumulation of talent. Anybody who has ever hired or fired an employee – or helped set salary levels – understands the vital nature of such decisions.

In the NL Central, more so than any other division in baseball, the decision-making process is dispersed between the standard general manager and a president of baseball operations who functions as a sort of super-GM. Three of the five NL Central teams feature such a setup. Those five individuals or tandems are Jed Hoyer (and Theo Epstein) of the Chicago Cubs, Nick Krall (and Dick Williams) of the Cincinnati Reds, David Stearns of the Milwaukee Brewers, Neal Huntington of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Mike Girsch (and John Mozeliak) of the St. Louis Cardinals.

They are the faces of the processes by which their respective clubs were assembled.

To what degree did each man – and each front office he directs – improve his team during the 2019 MLB season?

The method of evaluating the answer to that question isn’t all that complicated. For every general manager, we’ve assigned a value to all player-related movements occurring since the conclusion of the 2018 season. That value is determined by Wins Above Average, a zero-based variant of Wins Above Replacement.

For each GM, the calculation considers his positive or negative impact on his team in five respects: players acquired in deals with other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim; players traded, sold or waived to other teams; players signed at free agency or extended (beyond the normal; beyond the normal period of team control); players released onto the open market; and players who considered rookies.

For each GM, there is a summary of his performance followed by a brief synopsis of the numerical weight of their performance in each of the five categories and their total rating. Any rating above 0.0 represents the number of games by which a GM improved his team’s talent base, and any negative rating denotes regression. The average will always be about 0.0.

One important note: These ratings do not always follow the standings. A team may succeed because of its talent base on hand rather than due to what the GM did to that talent base. What we’re measuring here is only the impact of personnel decisions made since the end of the 2018 season.

For purposes of context, the best performance of the 2018 season was +10.2 by Milwaukee’s David Stearns. The worst was -20.5 by Miami’s Mike Hill.

In the order in which the teams finished, here’s how the five NL Central GMs rated.

2019 MLB Season: The NL Central’s best GM

Mike Girsch (and John Mozeliak), St. Louis Cardinals

Because it involved a perennial All-Star, the December trade that brought Paul Goldschmidt to the middle of the Cardinal order is widely viewed as the centerpiece move in the Girsch-Mozeliak effort to restore the Cardinals at a place of prominence in the NL Central.

Following a disappointing first couple of months, Goldschmidt did piece together a representative, if not an exceptional season. He batted .260 – that’s 30 points off his career average – but delivered 34 home runs and 97 RBIs.

Statistically, however, the more substantive contributions involved a couple of farm system products. Following a spasmodic baptism in the bullpen last season, Dakota Hudson earned a full-time rotation spot this spring and turned in a 16-7 record in 32 starts. That translated to a +0.8 WAA.

Then in June, the Cardinals summoned Tommy Edman from Triple-A to take over third base for a slumping Matt Carpenter. Edman batted .304 and lit a fuse under the sometimes balky Cardinal offense, his performance translating to 2.7 WAA.  Were it not for Pete Alonso, a plausible case could be made for Edman as National League Rookie of The Year.

Most of the rest of what Girsch/Mozeliak did qualified as ordinary. Setting aside Goldschmidt, Hudson, and Edman, the Cardinals used a modest 13 players they had obtained in one fashion or another since the end of the 2018 season. None of those 13 produced a WAA better than +0.5 or worse than -0.7.

Short-term acquisitions: +0.5

Short-term trade losses: -0.9

Short-term free agent signings: -0.3

Short-term free agent losses: +1.5

Short-term rookie production: +3.7

Short-term total: +4.5

2019 MLB Season: The NL Central’s best GM

David Stearns, Milwaukee Brewers

Stearns turned in the best performance by a front office exec in 2018. He made a nice run at replicating that accomplishment this season, improving his Brewers by nearly six games, enough to earn a repeat (if brief) trip to post-season play.

Stearns made three discerning personnel moves during the off-season, all three of which paid off. In January, he talked free agent Yasmani Grandal into signing a two-year, $32 million deal, filling an obvious Milwaukee need.  In February, he took advantage of the game’s general assessment that free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas’ asking price was too high. Stearns re-signed Moustakas at a relative bargain $7 million with an $11 million mutual option for 2020.

Then in late April, he offered a job to free-agent pitcher and 2018 Brewer Gio Gonzalez, who had been cut by the Yankees a few days earlier.

Between the three of them, Grandal, Moustakas, and Gonzalez stabilized three questionable positions and produced a combined +3.1 WAA.

The re-signings of Moustakas and Gonzalez illustrated another Stearns strength, his uncanny ability to discern talent that was worth keeping from talent that needed to be sent packing. He traded away five players, none of whom generated value for their new teams in excess of +0.1. Their net impact on the acquiring teams was -3.5 games.

Short-term acquisitions: +0.2

Short-term trade losses: +3.5

Short-term free-agent signings: +1.7

Short-term free-agent losses: +0.5

Short-term rookie production: -0.1

Short-term total: +5.8

2019 MLB Season: The NL Central’s best GM

Nick Krall (and Dick Williams), Cincinnati Reds

Krall and Williams might be in the process of re-shaping the Reds into NL Central contenders. In third baseman Eugenio Suarez, outfielder Aristides Aquino, plus pitchers Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, they have quickly built a small core that might develop long-term durability.

As is clear from their 75-87 record, the Reds still have a long way to go. Having acknowledged that, the 4.9 game improvement they worked on the talent base in the 2019 MLB season represents the best performance by a Reds front office since 2010.

Aquino, who debuted in August and homered in nine of his first 16 games – might eventually be the big find. But that’s no sure thing; following his torrid start he cooled substantially in September, batting just .196 through the season’s final month.

Suarez is the surest of the sure things. In his sixth season, he hit 49 homers and drove across 103 RBIs, establishing himself as a possible future All-Star if Nolan Arenado ever retires.

The January steal of Gray away from the Yankees for nothing more costly than a draft pick may have been the season’s biggest fleecing. Freed from the emotional strain of pitching in front of actual fans, Gray went 11-8 in 31 starts for the Reds with a 2.87 ERA.

Short-term acquisitions: +0.8

Short-term trade losses: +3.3

Short-term free-agent signings: -0.2

Short-term free-agent losses: +1.9

Short-term rookie production: -0.9

Short-term total: +4.9

2019 MLB Season: The NL Central’s best GM

Neal Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates

When the Pirates finished 69-93, their worst season since 2010, veteran manager Clint Hurdle was involuntarily retired. Huntington, Pittsburgh’s even longer-time general manager, is fortunate he wasn’t also dismissed.

In pure mathematical terms, Huntington had the worst season of any National League general manager. His moves cost the Pirates 10.4 games in the standings. Granted, some of those moves were made under duress, driven by injuries to Francisco Cervelli, Starling Marte, Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco, and others.

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Still, virtually every post-season team worked through one or more substantial injuries during the season. Winners view problems as opportunities.

Two of Huntington’s promotions did work out well. Shortstop Kevin Newman and left fielder Bryan Reynolds, both rookies, broke through in April and formed a productive top of the Pittsburgh order. In fact, it was virtually the only productive part of Pittsburgh’s lineup. Newman batted .308, Reynolds .314 and they combined for +3.6 WAA.

Elsewhere the results were desultory. Melky Cabrera signed in February and provided neither punch nor defense. And despite the contributions of Reynolds and Newman, the farm system was  — as a group – downright harmful. A full half dozen callups produced WAAs for the Pirates amounting to -1.0 or worse. Even counting Newman and Reynolds, the net of Huntington’s 16-player rookie class was -5.3 games.

He could also be equally unsuccessful in ridding himself of players. At the trade deadline, Huntington shipped rotation starter Jordan Lyles to Milwaukee for a minor leaguer.  After starting 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA in 17 starts for Pittsburgh, Lyles won seven times out of eight decisions in helping the Brewers reach the NL wild-card game.

Short-term acquisitions: -1.3

Short-term trade losses: -2.2

Short-term free agent signings: -3.4

Short-term free agent losses: +1.8

Short-term rookie production: -5.3

Short-term total: -10.4