Phillies: Money factors into 2020’s lineup too

Because the Phillies need four pitchers, some dollars must come via addition by subtraction, and general manager Matt Klentak realizes the organization’s financial picture has changed drastically from last offseason.

Reconfiguring the offense:   

Beginning with the hot stove league, the Philadelphia Phillies brain trust has some thought-provoking decisions, and overspending isn’t a consideration. In fact, buying a pennant mostly fails, and paying top dollar for talent cannot plug every hole. No, committing $488 million more before 2019 didn’t cover the rotation.

IN OTHER WORDS: “I wish I’d said it first, and I don’t even know who did: The only problems that money can solve are money problems.” – Mignon McLaughlin

If you had expected three .300 hitters like one local radio personality or had believed overhyped predictions, you probably questioned your hopes for the Fightins. Unfortunately, some needed one scapegoat or more to blame, but did it really help?

Looking at ’19 as a whole with a .500 record, you miss the segments within the entire 162. To illustrate, Andrew McCutchen‘s days ended with a painful injury, but how did the club do up till then? And after Charlie Manuel became the hitting coach, how did they do under his tutelage? Combine both?

When you consider it, some fans dream over the winter of capturing the National League flag because the campaign usually disappoints them. But the picture here is studying Klentak’s options to figure out what’s coming. For instance, he’ll probably move some dollars from the offense to the entire pitching staff.

Basically, he could cut one player and swap two others from 2019’s Opening Day nine. And he has the in-house personnel to replace them already and lower payroll, plus the GM would still have a left-right-lineup balance as well. However, two trade-chip regulars will likely be part of a package deal or two.

Counting on the offense to average seven runs a game isn’t realistic because most hitters are streaky, and the red pinstripes need two starters and two solid firemen for the seventh, eighth and/or ninth innings. Concerning the rotation, though, the minimum requirement is a two-slot hurler.

In the batting order, the good guys have three hitters with less than three seasons under their belts. And those are the developmental years before a player makes an impact: the rule, not the exception. Aside from potential superstars, a youngster reaches that level in or after his third major league summer.

Middle to bottom:   

For J.T. Realmuto, his busy first half was due to learning the Phillies pitching staff. And although he not surprisingly averaged in the .270s, his overall production was higher. Projection: Using his post-midpoint performance, his first-half numbers would be 21 homers and 58 RBIs for a total of 36 long balls and 99 RBIs.

Realmuto’s Phillies statistics for 2019:

• First half: 85 Gms., 10 HR and 42 RBIs.
• Second half: 60 Gms., 15 HR and 41 RBIs.

As for Buster Posey money, is Realmuto negotiating for $197 million total, $18.55 million per 162, or nine seasons? But could Klentak offer $17 million each for seven summers ($119 million), or will $20 million each for five years ($100 million) be workable? The $17 million proposal is lower by $3 million AAV (average annual value).

As a left side bat, Brad Miller, who earned $1 million in ’19, would likely be in the six hole to break up the right-handed hitters. Realistically, Maikel Franco is not a bench player, and Klentak will non-tender him due to his $5.2 million salary with a potential arbitration increase to $6.5 million.

Miller will be a stopgap until Alec Bohm is, hopefully, ready in July, and the veteran would then join Jay Bruce on the pine. At the keystone, Scott Kingery would replace Cesar Hernandez, whom the Phils would include in a winter package deal. The .280 hitter is making $7.75 million and could receive $10 million for his final arbitration.

In 2018, Kingery had averaged .226, and he raised it to .258 for 2019 with 19 round-trippers and 55 RBIs. So, he could hit .280 with 25 home runs in his third campaign to provide Hernandez-like production. But keep in mind, he’ll either improve like above or fashion his impact in ’20. Will he make his mark in 2020 or 2021?

Without Odubel Herrera around, Adam Haseley proved he can handle MLB pitching with a .266 mark like a fourth-year reserve outfielder. But he had played only 18 Triple-A games due to a Phils’ injury, yet he capitalized on this opportunity. Well, replacing Herrera’s $6.1 million salary with the MLB minimum is cost-effective.

Then and now:

With the $208 million competitive-balance threshold for ’20, a Phillies tally of $154.7 million will leave $53.3 million. Roughly, Klentak can sign a two-slot hurler ($15 million AAV), another starter ($7 million AAV), Realmuto ($19 million AAV), a top fireman ($8 million AAV) and a setup man ($4 million AAV): $53 million AAV total.

Phillies subtractions from the current $194.2 million:

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• Hunter: $9 million for $185.2 million.
• Nicasio: $8.5 million for $176.7 million.
• Neshek: $7.375 million for $169.325 million.
• Franco: $5.2 million for $164.125 million.
• Herrera: $6.1 million for $158.025 million.
• Hernandez: $7.75 million for $150.675 million.

Additions:

• Vargus’ buyout: $2 million for $152.675 million.
• 40-man roster raises: $2 million for $154.675 million.

If you expect the GM to spend $30 million AAV for an ace and $20 million AAV for Realmuto, that will be the club’s offseason. Meanwhile, some fans want to pick up a veteran third sacker with good stats for one summer, but players ink those pacts with their current team to avoid uprooting their families to a new city.

Herrera played 39 games with a .222 average, so replacing him with Haseley is an improvement. Meantime, Franco hit .234 with 17 bombs and stopgap Miller averaged .260 with 13 homers. At second base, Kingery will basically provide equal offensive production to Hernandez for an adequate bottom of the order.

The red pinstripes averaged 4.9 runs per ballgame with Cutch leading off in the first 59. Also, they had 4.6 runs per contest after Cutch but before Manuel and 5 runs per game during their final 43 ballgames despite Hoskins’ slump. And they fired the hitting coach because managing partner John Middleton reportedly wanted Manuel.

Additionally, the analytical pitching coach preferred by Kapler and Klentak has departed because of an unsuccessful reliance on stats. Plus Middleton probably had strong doubts about him as well. But is the delay on Kapler’s future more about changing some coaches –and if so, who is behind the skipper? Klentak!

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.