MLB Players that can boost their free agency stock most

MLB Players That Can Boost Their Free Agency Stock Most

Jake Odorizzi, RHP

Having signed a one-year, $9.5MM deal with the Minnesota Twins this past offseason, right-handed pitcher Jake Odorizzi has experienced arguably the best season of his career. With a 3.51 ERA, 3.336 FIP, and career-high 27.1 K%, Odorizzi has been a massive piece of the Twins rotation. He was the second-most valuable pitcher on the staff this season, amassing 4.3 fWAR that trailed only Jose Berrios (4.4).

The 29-year old spent much of the past offseason fine-tuning his mechanics, specifically in building and using more momentum in his windup. His program has surely paid dividends, evidenced both by his bump in strikeout rate and 2 MPH increase in average fastball velocity, which in 2019, sat at a career-high 93.3 MPH.

It hasn’t been a completely smooth season for Odorizzi, however. Looking at standard statistics, his effectiveness has wavered in the second half of 2019. Advanced metrics paint a different picture, showing that he may have been better in the second half, lowering his xFIP from 4.64 to 3.93. On the whole, however, Odorizzi likely performed better than he should’ve this season. His season-long xFIP, which uses contact-quality to measure a pitcher’s expected performance, finished at 4.33, whereas his actual FIP was only 3.36.

This weekend, Odorizzi did not take the ball for Game 2, with manager Rocco Baldelli stating Odorizzi’s game would fair better in in Minnesota, a more pitcher-friendly park than Yankee Stadium. He’ll likely get the start in Game 3, and with the Twins up against elimination, a season-saving start from Odorizzi could do wonders for his offseason prospects.

The jury is still out on whether his 2019 success is sustainable, but Odorizzi has a chance to dispel any potential doubts.

MLB Players That Can Boost Their Free Agency Stock Most

Didi Gregorius, SS

Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius seems to already be making his claim for a larger deal this offseason, breaking open Game 2 on Saturday night with a monstrous grand slam.

Gregorius has endured a grueling 2019 season, returning from Tommy John surgery in June only to struggle to reclaim his 2018 form. Last season, Gregorius launched a career-high 27 HR and amassed a 122 wRC+ and 4.7 WAR. This season, virtually all of his statistics have taken a step back, likely due to entering the fold mid-season.

Originally beginning his season hitting well, Gregorius struggled down the stretch, slashing a scant .190/.247/.380 in the regular season’s last month. Luckily, the shortstop’s struggles didn’t keep the Yankees from finishing strong, earning home-field in their opening matchup against Minnesota. The Bronx Bombers are deep, and it’s that depth that may give Gregorius an advantage this postseason.

Gregorius doesn’t have to be the end-all-be-all for the Yankees, who have the likes of Aaron Judge, D.J. LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres to help support their offense. He has a quality lineup around him, which will give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, just as he did in Game 2.

Gregorius’s one-year, $11.75MM deal expires at season’s end, putting the shortstop in unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career. With a solid showing this postseason, the 29-year old could show teams that he’s fully recovered from his injury and capable of hitting as he did in 2017 and 2018.

MLB Players That Can Boost Their Free Agency Stock Most

Josh Donaldson, 3B

When the Atlanta Braves signed third baseman Josh Donaldson to a one-year, $23MM deal this past offseason, it became immediately clear that the contract would serve as an opportunity for the 33-year old to show that he could still tap into the talents that made him AL MVP in 2015.

The deal, a gamble for both the Braves and Donaldson, has yielded outstanding results. The former MVP regained his old form, recovering from past injuries to help lead the Braves into the postseason. Donaldson slashed .259/.379/.521 while downright clobbering the baseball, smashing 37 HRs and increasing his hard-hit percentage to 47.5%. He rediscovered his aggressive approach at the plate, raising his swing percentage and first-strike swing percentage back to the levels of his MVP-self.

Donaldson’s arrival in Atlanta coalesced seamlessly with the team’s rise to dominance, with his presence injecting even more offense and leadership into a lineup that already had the likes of Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies.

Donaldson has had a rather unorthodox career, coming up originally as a catcher but moving to third base early on, where he eventually evolved from a role player into a superstar. “The Bringer of Rain” has been traded three times, but has the opportunity to pick his new home this offseason.

Teams may not be necessarily lining up to sign an aging former MVP, but any roster would love to have his veteran leadership and offensive prowess in their lineup. The Braves have already discussed bringing him back after this season, but if Donaldson is a key part of their October run, they’ll find a lot competition standing in their way.

MLB Players That Can Boost Their Free Agency Stock Most

Dallas Keuchel, LHP

Yet another veteran leader joining the Braves on a one-year deal, left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel perhaps made an even larger gamble on himself than his teammate, Josh Donaldson.

Keuchel remained a free agent until June, where he ultimately signed a one-year, $13MM, with the Braves. The 2015 AL Cy Young winner has enjoyed a fine year since joining the team, showing teams that he still has gas left in the tank.

In 2019, Keuchel sported a 3.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP, and 4.06 xFIP, pitching as effective as the underlying metrics would suggest. He stayed true to what’s made him successful in the past, inducing groundballs while relying heavily on pitch mix and movement. Keuchel keeps hitters uncomfortable and off-balance, as displayed by his 71.6% outside-the-zone swing rate.

Keuchel was called upon to start in Game 1 of the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals and pitched well. The 31-year old went four and two-thirds innings, giving up one run on five hits. He did walk three batters and failed to record a strikeout, but Keuchel’s game is based on contact rather than strikeouts and walks.

While the Braves ultimately lost Game 1 7-6, Keuchel left the game with the score knotted at one. While he may not be as dominant as he was a few years ago, if he continues to give the Braves a chance to win in each of his starts, Keuchel likely won’t have to wait until June to find a deal to his liking this time around.

MLB Players That Can Boost Their Free Agency Stock Most

Opt-Outs: Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman

Right-handed pitcher Stephen Strasburg and left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman are in unique situations. Both MLB players enjoyed dominant seasons in 2019, but both also have a key decision to make once their October runs are over.

Strasburg and Chapman must decide whether to opt-out of their respective deals this offseason, and a strong postseason showing could make their decisions all that much easier. Strasburg can opt-out of four years, $100MM, while Chapman can opt-out of 2 years, $30MM.

Stephen Strasburg, who entered the league as one of the most hyped prospects the game has seen in recent years, was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. According to Fangraphs, his 5.7 WAR was seventh-best in baseball, whereas his 8.3 mark tops Baseball Prospectus’ leaderboards.

The 2019 NL Cy Young candidate has already begun the postseason on a tear, striking out 10 through six innings of one-run baseball against the Dodgers in NLDS Game 2. Prior to that, he helped the Nationals win the NL Wild Card in a dramatic relief appearance.

Aroldis Chapman, on the other hand, has been his same, overpowering self in 2019. Despite losing a tick in velocity this season, the lefty has found continued success closing games for the Yankees.  The ninth-most valuable reliever by fWAR, Chapman tied for the third-most saves this season, and ranked within the top 15 in both K% and xFIP among relievers.

Chapman closed out Game 1 of the ALDS for the Yankees, finishing  a 10-4 win against the Twins. As long as the Yankees are playing this postseason, Chapman will be among the most feared relievers going this fall.

Strasburg and Chapman have massive decisions to make this offseason. Their concern at the moment, however, is their team’s World Series chances. If the two end up being integral to their respective teams’ success, opting out may be a wise decision for them.

MLB Players That Can Boost Their Free Agency Stock Most

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We tend to be prisoners of the moment, especially when it comes to sports. In baseball, we’ve had our fair share of postseason legends in recent years, such as left-handed pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Andrew Miller, as well as the unforgettable emergence of David Freese in 2011. Last season, the Boston Red Sox rode solid performances from right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and first baseman Steve Pearce to a World Series title.

As magical as these dominant runs can be, it’s intriguing to look at how they influence a player’s career from that point forward. Bumgarner is hitting free agency this offseason, and his postseason reputation will surely be a factor in his next contract. Eovaldi and Pearce earned new deals as well, with the Red Sox wanting to keep their postseason heroes.

Fans become infatuated with MLB players that lead their team towards a league, or World Series, title, for obvious reasons. Its the sport’s greatest joy, and when a particular player gets hot in one of these runs, their stock raises immensely.

Jake Odorizzi, Didi Gregorius, Dallas Keuchel, and Stephen Strasburg are just a few names currently playing postseason baseball that will be free agents this offseason. They have a great chance to boost their offseason earning potential by becoming postseason legends.

Whether its one of them or some other player, succeeding in October is a sure way to leave a lasting impression and secure a new, more lucrative contract.

Statistics and contract information from Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus.