MLB Qualifying Offer decrease proves MLBPA right
By David Hill
For the first time since it was implemented, the MLB Qualifying Offer is set to decrease. Turns out that the MLBPA was right about their salary concerns.
Over the past few offseasons, MLB free agency has moved at a glacial pace. The top players in the game have lingered in free agent limbo, signing either once Spring Training has begun, or in the cases of Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, having to wait until after the MLB Draft to find employment. Free agents simply are not finding the markets that they would have expected for their services, having to settle for contracts below their anticipated market value.
It has been enough for the Major League Baseball Players Association to make accusations of collusion, and suggest that owners are actively working together to decrease salaries. With the news that the value of the MLB Qualifying Offer has decreased for the first time since it was implemented, the MLBPA may be right about their salary concerns.
As free agency approaches, sources say a player who accepts a qualifying offer this winter will get a one-year, $17.8-million contract next season.
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) October 11, 2019
That’s down from $17.9M. It’s the first time the value of the qualifying offer has ever dropped from one year to the next.
Based on the average of the top 125 salaries in the game, the QO had steadily increased since its inception. Originally slotted at $13.3 million during the 2102-13 offseason, the offer had reached its peak value of $17.9 million last year. Now, the offer has dropped by $100 thousand.
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The problem is not the top tier. Players like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper still received their astronomical contracts during the previous offseason, even if they had to wait a while longer. The issue is that the middle tier of free agency has not been receiving the same types of offers they had in the past.
To illustrate that point, all one needs to do is look at the average MLB salary from the past few years. In 2019, the average salary for a major league player was $4.36 million, a decrease from the $4.41 million average of 2018. This marks the second year that the average salary has decreased, with the 2019 level below that of 2016.
That $17.8 million is still an impressive salary. Depending on which players receive the offer, it would not be a surprise to see at least one of those accept the offer. Not only would they receive that $17.8 million guaranteed, but they would be allowed to enter free agency in the following offseason without having to worry about the offer being made.
Nonetheless, there has been a shift in the way teams approach free agency. Those aging sluggers are not getting the paychecks they once did. Teams are more inclined to spend their money on extensions for their young players than they are for free agents on the downside of their career arc.
It is logical from a financial standpoint to invest where there is a chance to see the return on investment increase, rather than have those players begin to struggle. However, that is starting to hold salaries down, and with teams suddenly offering very similar deals to free agents at the exact same time, the Player’s Association has every right to be concerned about the similarities in these offers and the decrease in salaries.
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Watching the value of the MLB Qualifying Offer decrease lends some support to the MLBPA’s stance on how teams are conspiring to lower salaries. Something will need to chance in the upcoming CBA.