Detroit Tigers top ten prospects for 2020

It is going to be quite some time before the Detroit Tigers are ready to contend in the American League Central. However, they have some very interesting pieces in the farm system.

On the plus side for the Detroit Tigers, they seemingly have nowhere to go but up.

After posting identical 64-98 records over the past two seasons, the bottom fell out in Detroit last year. The Tigers were 47-114, putting themselves in the running as one of the worst teams in MLB history, and earning the first overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. The rebuild, which had officially been underway over the past year and a half, was kicked into high gear.

Yet, as bad as the present may be, the Tigers future appears to be bright. They have restocked the farm system with intriguing prospects in the draft and through trade, with quite a few potentially impact arms in the pipeline. The Tigers struggles on offense could be a thing of the past soon enough as well, as there appear to be several building blocks closing in on the majors.

Chances are, it will take a few more years for the Detroit Tigers to find their way back into playoff contention. In the interim, let us take a look at some pieces to that future.

10. Franklin Perez

Minors (A+): 7.2 innings, 2.35 ERA, 1.565 WHiP, five walks, six strikeouts

Franklin Perez did not become a full time pitcher until he was 15 years old. However, despite that late start, he has the potential to be an impact starter for the Detroit Tigers relatively soon.

Acquired as part of the Justin Verlander deal, Perez has slowly made his way up the ladder since being signed as an international free agent. He has quickly taken to the mound, with a plus fastball that sits in the mid 90s and a curve with excellent spin. Perez also uses a slider and change, both pitches flash the potential to be plus offerings as well, with the change occasionally featuring screwball-esque movement.

The problem is that Perez simply has not been able to stay on the mound. Since his acquisition in 2017, he has thrown a total of 27 innings for the Tigers, as he has suffered a lat strain, shoulder inflammation, and a trap injury over the past two years. In 2016, Perez had a knee injury that ended his season prematurely.

Those health issues are the biggest obstacle facing Perez. The pure stuff is there, as he has the type of four pitch mix that could make him a potential second or third starter in the majors. But he has to stay on the mound in order for that to happen. To this point, he has had just one relatively healthy season in the past four years.

The 2020 campaign could be the difference maker for Franklin Perez. If he can prove that he can stay healthy, he could be a key part of the Detroit Tigers future. Otherwise, it is fair to wonder if he will ever fulfill his immense potential.

9. Jake Rogers

Minors (AA, AAA): 303 plate appearances, .250/.361/.484, 13 doubles, 14 homers, 37 walks, 79 strikeouts

Majors: 128 plate appearances, .125/.222/.259, three doubles, four homers, 13 walks, 51 strikeouts

Defensively, Jake Rogers is ready to be a part of the Detroit Tigers lineup. Offensively is a different story.

That was the report on Rogers when he was a third round draft pick of the Astros in 2016. He was considered to be one of the better defensive catchers, not just in the draft, but in the game as a whole. A brilliant receiver and pitch framer, Rogers has excellent agility and leadership skills behind the dish. Add in his howitzer of an arm, and he may well be the best defensive catcher in the majors already.

The problem is that Rogers’ bat is simply not close to being ready. He does possess decent power and is patient at the plate, but his contact issues have been a concern since he was drafted. When he does make contact, Rogers has shown to be a fly ball hitter, one that could succeed in the majors with the current emphasis on hitting the ball in the air.

However, he would need to make contact more frequently than he has in order to be a viable lead option at catcher. His glove and arm should give him a long career, even if it is as a backup at the position.

Jake Rogers should be a useful piece for the Detroit Tigers. He needs to show more with the bat to be more than a Jeff Mathis type of player.

8. Willi Castro

Minors (AAA): 525 plate appearances, .301/.366/.467, 28 doubles, 11 homers, 17 steals, 37 walks, 110 plate appearances

Majors: 110 plate appearances, .230/.284/.340, six doubles, one homer, six walks, 34 strikeouts

The Detroit Tigers will not have any problems locating infielders in their farm system. They have five shortstops that could be listed amongst their top 20 prospects.

Of that group, Willi Castro may be the most intriguing. Acquired by Detroit in exchange for Leonys Martin, Castro has displayed an interesting mix of gap power and speed at each level of the minors as he steadily climbed up the ladder.

A switch hitting line drive hitter with solid gap power, it is thought that he will develop into a double digit home run hitter in the majors as he matures physically. He has an aggressive approach at the plate, but also has displayed a refusal to chase out of the zone. Castro has also tweaked his swing since being acquired by the Tigers, resulting in a higher fly ball rate that could unlock more power at the dish.

The biggest question is Castro’s defense. While he has a strong arm and decent range at short, there are differing opinions as to his glove. Aside from 2018, he had made at least 22 errors each year he played full season ball. Castro has just 46 games at a position other than short in his minor league career – 45 at second and one at third. The defense will need to improve.

Willi Castro has an intriguing all around game on offense. But if he is going to make a difference with the Detroit Tigers, he will either need to improve his defense at short, or learn to play other positions as a utility man.

7. Tarik Skubal

Minors (A+, AA): 6-8 record, 122.2 innings, 2.42 ERA, 1.011 WHiP, 37 walks, 179 strikeouts

The Detroit Tigers selected Tarik Skubal in the 9th round of the 2017 MLB Draft. It is possible that he will make his major league debut by the end of the 2020 campaign.

To be fair, the only reason why Skubal was selected so late is due to his injury history. He had undergone Tommy Joh surgery in 2016, which caused him to miss most of that year and all of 2017. When he returned, his command was still a work in progress, but the Tigers saw enough potential to sign him for an above slot bonus.

That faith was immediately rewarded, as Skubal has dominated in the minors. Armed with a mid 90s fastball that can touch 97 MPH, he also has an above average curve with 1 to 7 break that he uses as his strikeout pitch. Skubal has a tight slider that he can throw for strikes, and the vestiges of a change. That changeup is clearly his fourth offering, and may end up being a pitch that he shows rarely just to keep hitters off balance.

Skubal, at least thus far in his professional career, has not displayed any of the health concerns or the command issues that plagued the end of his time in college. In fact, his ability to dominate in the zone, and his three pitch mix, could lead him to the majors by the end of 2020. Once there, it is unlikely that he returns to the minors.

The Detroit Tigers got a steal in Tarik Skubal. He appears set to reward them for years to come.

5. Alex Faedo

Minors (AA): 6-7 record, 115.1 innings, 3.90 ERA, 1.118 WHiP, 25 walks, 134 strikeouts

The Detroit Tigers liked Alex Faedo so much, they drafted him twice. The second time, when he was selected with the 18th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, they were able to land their man.

It is easy to see why the Tigers were so interested in his services. His final season in college started slowly due to a pair of knee surgeries, but he bounced back to have a strong finish, eventually winning the College World Series’ Most Outstanding Player award. That resiliency, and his impressive stuff, led to the Tigers making the choice to draft him once again.

After battling with diminished velocity in his first season as a professional, Faedo showed that 2018 was an aberration. His fastball was back in the mid 90s, showing the movement that had been there in college. Faedo’s slider had its bite back, becoming the strikeout pitch it had been. With the fastball back, his changeup also became effective once again, helping him to keep AA hitters off balance.

That combination of stuff, combined with his impressive control, give Faedo a solid floor. If nothing else, he should be a solid back of the rotation arm, with his lower arm slot causing hitters fits on occasion. However, if his stuff continues to play up, Faedo could develop into a middle of the rotation arm, one whose production goes beyond projections. He could become the Tigers version of Jack Flaherty, should everything break right.

Alex Faedo has an incredible command of his arsenal and a tremendous understanding of how to pitch. It is just a matter of time before he makes his major league debut.

4. Riley Greene

Minors (RK, A-, A): 251 plate appearances, .271/.347/.403, eight doubles, five homers, five steals, 22 walks, 63 strikeouts

The fifth overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft, Riley Greene could be the middle of the order bat that the Detroit Tigers need.

Considered the best pure hitter in the high school ranks last year, Greene had an impressive resume by the time he was drafted. He was the top run producer on Team USA’s National 18U team, helping lead them to a gold medal in the Pan-American Championships. Greene won the Gatorade Player of the Year award in Florida, as he was a force as a high school senior.

Although it is early in his professional career, it is apparent that Greene can flat out hit. While it is not likely that he challenges for a home run crown at any time in his career, he has a fluid swing from the left side with a great deal of explosiveness. Greene also improved his athleticism, and while he is not likely to stick in center, he did improve his speed and range in the field.

That hit tool will carry Greene through the Tigers system, and potentially, at a very rapid pace. He had already progressed through three levels of the Tigers system, spending just nine games in rookie ball before being promoted. With his ability to hit, it is possible that Detroit will be aggressive in challenging Greene, with his major league debut coming sooner than one may expect.

At just 19 years old, Riley Greene is already the best hitter in the Detroit Tigers system. He may not stay there long, as a debut at the end of 2021 may not be out of the question if he continues to hit.

3. Isaac Paredes

Minors (AA): 552 plate appearances, .282/.368/.416, 23 doubles, 13 homers, five steals, 57 walks, 61 strikeouts

There is no question that Isaac Paredes can hit. The question is – where does he play?

Another top prospect acquired in a trade, Paredes came from the Cubs as part of the package that sent Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to Chicago. Although Paredes struggled initially as part of the Tigers system, he reached the AA level in 2018, showing a solid bat. Back in AA for the entirety of 2019, he did nothing to change that profile.

At the plate, Paredes has an advanced approach, showing a strong batting eye and a stellar ability to put the bat on the ball. For such a contact oriented approach, he does a tremendous job of squaring up the opposition, although the majority of his pop comes when he pulls the ball. That may change as he continues to mature physically, although to the detriment of his already questionable speed.

With a solid glove and strong arm, Paredes would seemingly fit at short. The problem is, he does not have much range. As it is, the Tigers have already begun trying him at other positions, notably at third base. There is an opening at the hot corner, as Dawel Lugo simply is not the answer. Paredes could end up being the answer for the long term.

Chances are, Isaac Paredes will have to shift away from short. His bat should play up enough for him to be a solid option at third, although he profiles more as a two hole hitter than a middle of the lineup thumper.

2. Matt Manning

Minors (AA): 11-5 record, 133.2 innings, 2.56 ERA, 0.980 WHiP, 38 walks, 148 strikeouts

Considered a bit of a project when the Detroit Tigers selected him with the 9th overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, Matt Manning is paying off.

A two sport athlete, Manning was slowly eased into professional ball before exploding onto the prospect map in 2018. He shot up through three levels in the Tigers system, ending the year in AA. Manning spent the entire 2019 campaign at the same level, producing the type of performance that shows why the Tigers have such high hopes for his future.

Despite typically sitting in the low 90s with his fastball, Manning has the ability to generate mid 90s heat at virtually any time, having an easy ability to call upon that added velocity. His curve, sitting in the low 80s, is a legitimate strikeout pitch, and could be on par with his fastball in terms of the grading scale. While his changeup lags behind the other two offerings, it still has the potential to be, at worst, an average pitch with more development.

Manning is still a work in progress. He still needs to learn to repeat his delivery and arm slot, as well as continue to develop command of his arsenal. If he is able to continue his development, Manning could become a second or third starter moving forward for Detroit.

Matt Manning has the potential to be the top of the rotation arm the Detroit Tigers need. But he is still a work in progress.

1. Casey Mize

Minors (A+, AA): 8-3 record, 109.1 innings, 2.55 ERA, 0.942 WHiP, 23 walks, 106 strikeouts

The top overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, Casey Mize has been everything the Detroit Tigers could have hoped for.

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After one appearance in rookie ball last year, Mize was aggressively promoted to the Florida State League, where he had his struggles at times in his four starts. Back in Lakeland to start 2019, Mize quickly proved to be up to the challenge. He was then promoted to AA, spending the rest of the year in Erie.

Mize has the hallmarks of a future ace for the Tigers. Armed with a fastball that can reach 97 MPH that also has great movement, his best pitch may actually be his splitter. Thrown in the upper 80s, his split dives at the plate and lives at the bottom of the strike zone. His slider is also a potential plus pitch, and is an offering that Mize turns into a cutter on occasion.

The question with Mize is whether or not he can stay healthy. He missed time in 2017 with a tired arm and a flexor strain. Mize had a platelet-rich plasma injection in his pitching elbow before the 2018 draft. Then, he missed time with a shoulder injury last year.

If he can stay healthy, Casey Mize is the future ace the Detroit Tigers need. However, that is the question – can he?