Phillies: Rebuilding 2020’s pen from the ashes
In February, the Phillies faithful will count the hours until truck day, the first televised game from Clearwater, and/or the weeks remaining before Opening Day with a full 162 ahead: new expectations to debate.
Picking up the pieces:
When injuries are not an excuse, the Philadelphia Phillies from the owners to the 25th man on the roster are to blame. Yes, the front office couldn’t hide their excitement in March. And they also dreaded September’s end because they had skin in the game, did you? Expect perfection, accept reality!
IN OTHER WORDS: “Designing a dream city is easy; rebuilding a living one takes imagination.” – Jane Jacobs
During the offseason, general manager Matt Klentak has four pitching holes to plug and some combinations to do so: Top hurlers mean inexpensive secondary arms in the rotation and relief corps. So, he must judiciously spend resources limited by last winter’s investments.
Every contending franchise in the National League East needs “back end of the bullpen” help, and last summer’s spending will hamper all four organizations. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers must remedy their “eighth and ninth inning” difficulties.
Among those not returning, three veterans are free agents including two who missed substantial time. And the salary dump from the Seattle Mariners wasn’t particularly effective, but injuries kept him on the Fightins for the entire campaign. Basically, $24.875 million is officially off the books.
Klentak could have roughly $50-55 million AAV (average annual value) at most for two starters, two firemen and one contract extension of $20 million AAV. So, the GM will probably allocate $10-15 million AAV for two relievers. Translation: Klentak must really earn his pay to keep his job.
The Phils had two setup men with season-ending injuries. But Adam Morgan and Victor Arano were solid when they were healthy. Unfortunately, the $23 million fireman (Robertson) will miss ’20 as well due to Tommy John surgery, but he won’t need a 40-man roster slot because of his expensive contract.
Escaping 2019 intact, Hector Neris, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez are the first three pieces of eight. And if Seranthony Dominguez doesn’t need Tommy John surgery, he could develop into one of the best of eight relief-corps options for the new skipper. But he’s far from a certainty at this point.
Counting heads:
Whether the Phillies acquire one top fireman or two solid relievers, they will need at least six pitchers from 2019’s pen. And keep in mind, having a designated closer may not be management’s plan. Basically, injuries forced Neris into that role, but he will have save chances in ’20 as well. And so will others!
Relief-wise, baseball men prefer four good outings out of five or 80 percent, but 75 percent is acceptable. As for Neris, he had 68 opportunities and was decent at a 77.9 percent rate. He had 50 solid performances and three so-so efforts. In fact, he only had two blowups in ’19, but can you name those two?
While the IL (injured list) grew from April through season’s end, Alvarez was healthy and effective. He had acceptable outcomes in 51 of 67 contests for 76.1 percent. That stated, he was a good trade for Klentak but was under many fans’ radar due to his workmanlike approach.
Because he was a bright spot in ’19, Suarez earned a relief-corps slot and, perhaps, higher leverage situations for his sophomore year. He only had six bad outings out of 37 and was effective in 83.8 percent of his chances. Unfortunately, some hard-to-please supporters may have missed his contribution.
Regarding Morgan, he produced an effective rate of 90 percent. However, three of four poor results were blowups, and the faithful usually sour on those. But he had 34 solid performances and two so-so appearances.
Despite only three 2019 ballgames, Arano should return for spring training after having elbow surgery (called a scope) to correct his recurring inflammation problem. But the red pinstripes had counted on a repeat of his 2018 success: a 2.73 ERA and three saves for 59 1/3 frames over 60 appearances.
Ifs or ands:
If the 2020 Phillies pick up two relievers plus 2019’s five moundsmen, three healthy and two healed, they will have one bullpen seat remaining. And four possibilities are competing for that role: Dominguez, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Edubray Ramos. The 13th pitcher?
If Dominguez is healthy, he could have save chances with Neris and an offseason-added fireman. Unfortunately, Dominguez didn’t meet fans’ expectations because of his early dominance in ’18: a problematic contrast, no? But when the league caught up to him, they exposed the holes in his development.
Concerning his success rate, the young flamethrower produced 20 acceptable outings out of 27 for 74.1 percent. However, he only has a little over a year’s experience. But if he realizes his potential, he could be 2021’s top arm in the pen.
Besides depending on the health of Arano and Dominguez, Klentak also has Pivetta as a possibility for the relief corps. In fact, this may be his ticket for an MLB career if he can be more consistent. He had 11 good performances and one so-so effort out of 17: 70.6 percent. So, he’s not a long shot to improve.
As for Velasquez, he only had 10 opportunities with eight acceptable outings: 80 percent. But if the Phils spend heavily for only one starter to pair with Nola, Velasquez could be the rotation’s fifth hurler. Or Klentak could sign a two-slot arm and a five as well.
Lastly, Ramos had a solid 2018 with a 2.32 ERA for 42 2/3 innings over 60 appearances. In ’19, though, he had 10 good and two so-so efforts out of 20 for 60 percent. Was ’18 a fluke, or will he need to add a pitch to his arsenal as an adjustment to the competition?
Decisions aplenty:
If the Phillies take the free-agency route, they could ink a fireman with ninth-inning experience like Will Smith at $11 million AAV or Daniel Hudson at $8 million AAV. But Will Harris could be a $6 million AAV acquisition and work as a setup man in the sixth and seventh frames on most occasions.
In the trade market, two available relievers are Ken Giles of the Toronto Blue Jays and Mychal Givens of the Baltimore Orioles. Giles earned $6.3 million in 2019 and could receive $8.4 million for his final arbitration campaign. Meantime, Givens made $2.15 million in ’19 and could get $3.2 million for his second arb 162 in ’20.
Like one starting staff approach, Klentak could also sign an expensive bullpen hurler, but his second inking –if he has one– would be on the lower financial end. So, will the exec pick up two solid pieces or one dominant and a risky second choice?
Beginning with the new manager and his coaches for 2020, Klentak needs two successful moves out of every three because he is one of eight GMs heading into a make-or-break summer. And he must make good decisions to go hand in hand with good fortune, but where will Klentak end up if he doesn’t? The chopping block!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
* Phillies numbers only
Phillies statistical results toward 75-80 percent:
- Neris: 50 good, 3 so-so and 15 bad (2 blowups) out of 68 total for 77.9%
- Alvarez: 43 good (1 opener), 8 so-so and 16 bad (1 blowup) out of 67 total for 76.1%
- Morgan: 34 good, 2 so-so and 4 bad (3 blowups) out of 40 total for 90%
- Suarez: 28 good, 3 so-so and 6 bad (0 blowups) out of 37 total for 83.8%
- Dominguez: 16 good, 4 so-so and 7 bad (1 blowup) out of 27 total for 74.1%
- Pivetta: 11 good, 1 so-so and 5 bad (1 blowup) out of 17 total for 70.6%
- Velasquez: 6 good, 2 so-so and 2 bad (1 blowup) out of 10 total for 80%
- Ramos: 10 good, 2 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 20 total for 60%
- *Morin: 18 good, 2 so-so and 9 bad (2 blowups) out of 29 total for 69%
- *Hughes: 16 good, 2 so-so and 7 bad (1 blowup) out of 25 total for 72%
- *Parker: 14 good, 1 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 23 total for 65.2%
- *Vincent: 9 good, 2 so-so and 3 bad (0 blowups) out of 14 total for 78.6%
- A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
This is a running tally including inherited runners scoring.
Phillies targets’ statistical results toward 75-80 percent:
- Smith: 47 good, 3 so-so and 13 bad (0 blowups) out of 63 total for 79.4%
- Hudson: 46 good, 5 so-so and 20 bad (1 blowup) out of 71 total for 71.8%
With Washington: 17 good, 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 24 total for 83.3% - Harris: 53 good, 6 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 67 total for 88.1%
- Givens: 37 good, 2 so-so and 19 bad (3 blowups) out of 58 total for 67.2%
- Giles: 43 good, 2 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 53 total for 84.9%
A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
Phillies targets 2019 stats:
- Smith, 30: 63 Gms., 65 1/3 Inn., a 2.76 ERA, 34 Saves, 4 BS, a 3.24 FIP, a 2.74 xFIP, a 2.72 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
Hudson, 32.5:
- Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP. - Harris, 35: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.15 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
- Givens, 29.5: 58 Gms., 63 Inn., a 4.57 ERA, 11 Saves, 7 Holds, a 4.50 FIP, a 3.62 xFIP, a 3.34 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.19 WHIP.
- Giles, 29: 53 Gms., 53 Inn., a 1.87 ERA, 23 Saves, 1 BS, a 2.27 FIP, a 2.73 xFIP, a 2.49 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.00 WHIP.
Next. Dark side of analytics facing 2020 Phillies. dark
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