MLB Teams that will be buyers ahead of the 2020 season

Here are seven MLB teams, some of them surprising, who are positioned to be active in the winter bidding.

Three MLB teams remain alive for the 2019 World Series championship. But that leaves 27 teams free to plan for 2020.

The free-agent market opens in November. But not every team will be a major player in that market.

Some, including the 2018 World Series-winning Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros, may defer due to ongoing financial commitments that push either their recent spending patterns or the projected 2020 payroll tax threshold.

Others, notably the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies, are still in the process of assimilating their 2019 spending splurges into their ongoing operations. Still others, among them the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers, are enmeshed in rebuilding programs that have not yet matured enough to justify large free agent commitments.

There are teams, however, that should find themselves in the ideal free agent window this winter. They have at least some payroll flexibility, their roster contains the talent potential that would justify making a big-dollar move, and they have one or more roster gaps a big free-agent signing might fill.

More intriguing, these clubs are not necessarily the usual free agent suspects. Rather, they tend to be mid-tier, developing clubs that have shown the willingness in previous years to be willing to bite into the free-agent market, and which in 2018 showed some element of upward mobility. Those are the teams that could be most active in this winter’s market.

Here’s an argument for why seven of these MLB teams – only two of them 2019 playoff clubs – can and ought to be aggressive in the 2020 free-agent market.

MLB Teams: Buyers in 2020

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays became moderately famous in 2019 for both the depth and lineage of their rookie class. Not only were Dante Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Cavan Biggio all sons of former major leaguers, they were all good in their own right.

Now’s the right moment for the Jays to supplement that young core with one or two front-rank veterans that could give them a serious boost in the AL East.

True, the Jays finished only 67-95, 36 games behind the division-leading Yankees. But given the expected natural improvement of sophomores-to-be Biggio, Guerrero, and Bichette, that margin might be deceptive.

Toronto also has as much payroll flexibility as any team in MLB. The Jays project to enter 2020 with only about $30 million in ongoing payroll commitments, a fraction of their normal $140 million payroll range.

That means they could, if they chose to, extend a long-term commitment to one or more of their rookie core and still have room to court a first-magnitude 2010 free agent prospect.

Who might they go after? Toronto’s projected 2020 lineup is laden with youth, including 25-year-old DH Rowdy Tellez, 25-year-old catcher Danny Jansen, 27-year-old Teoscar Hernandez, and 26-year-old Lourdes Gurriel.

They do lose first baseman Justin Smoak to free agency but have the flexibility – if they choose to use it – to re-sign Smoak. Given his 2019 performance decline – his 101 OPS+ was Smoak’s worst in three seasons – they may pass on that opportunity.

Unless the Jays are prepared to give up on some of their regulars, the obvious focal point is the rotation, which needs a workhorse leader to replace Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. Both were traded away last July.

The Jays aren’t an obvious suitor for Gerrit Cole, but somebody like Jake Odorizzi might – for the right money and term — make a lot of sense.

Chicago first baseman Jose Abreu might be an attractive option to replace Smoak, although that could entail a bidding war with the Sox, who are reportedly interested in retaining Abreu as a stable veteran in an otherwise developing lineup.

MLB Teams: Buyers in 2020

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are in the enviable position of being a powerhouse that retains some payroll flexibility even in the face of their $196 million opening day 2019 payroll.

LA approaches this winter with only about $124 million in ongoing commitments to a championship-level core that includes pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda, infielders Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez, and Max Muncy, and outfielders Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson. That commitment might fall even further if closer Kenley Jensen opts out of the $18 million he is owed this season.

The rumor mill has the Dodgers – at the appropriate moment — courting Nationals MVP candidate Anthony Rendon, although it’s not clear where the signing of Rendon would leave Turner, the incumbent at third base. Turner is owed $20 million in 2020, and at age 35 he doesn’t figure to be able to move easily to, for example, left field.

They can also afford to be players at the high end of the pitching market. How would Cole or Stephen Strasburg – assuming he opts outlook in the Dodger rotation next season? One other provocative (and possible) move would have the Dodgers throwing a hefty performance-laden deal at a certain 30-year-old left-handed five-time All-Star who’s pitched his entire career to date in San Francisco. Yes, that would be Madison Bumgarner.

 MLB Teams: Buyers in 2020

Minnesota Twins

Like the Dodgers, the Twins are an intriguing case precisely because they begin with a playoff-caliber core. That includes players of the stripe of Mitch Garver, C. J. Cron, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jose Berrios, and Martin Perez. The $38.5 million in ongoing Twins commitments cover all nine of those vital parts from the 2019 AL Central champions.

It also affords Twins management plenty of payroll flexibility given their $119 million 2019 payroll or their recent payroll range, which peaked at $129 million in 2019.

The Twins’ commitment does go up if, as seems logical, they exercise their $12 million option on DH Nelson Cruz, whose 41 2019 home runs would be well worth the investment.

Their flexibility might narrow even more if they elect to try to extend part of that young core. Polanco, who will be 26, batted .296 with 22 home runs last season, is the prototype in that respect. He is signed through 2025 for a total of $44 million across those six seasons.

That would still leave them positioned to shop for a second baseman to replace Jonathan Schoop, or a starter to offset the potential loss of Jake Odorizzi. Or they might just re-sign Odorizzi.

 MLB Teams: Buyers in 2020

Chicago White Sox

The cheapest, most commonly made of-season prediction sees the White Sox making strides toward contention in 2020. After all, those kids they acquired a few years ago – Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez, and Michael Kopech – either have arrived or are about to arrive. All you have to do is look at Jimenez, a 6-4, 205 lb 22-year-old and it’s impossible to imagine anything other than a burgeoning star.

The Sox enter 2020 with just $24 million in estimated ongoing commitments, so even if they begin by tying up several of those potential stars – something they’ve already done with Jimenez — they’ll still be left with room to flesh out a payroll that has historically ranged about $100 million.

Chicago’s first issue is deciding whether to re-sign potential free agent Jose Abreu, the linchpin of the lineup. Assuming they retain Abreu and their young stars mature in the normal way, the logical focus is on the rotation, where Kopech’s recovery from arm surgery is no sure thing.

The Sox are not a team normally associated with high-dollar free agent pitching. But if Stephen Strasburg opts out of his deal with the Nationals, Chicago’s South Side might be a very interesting dark-horse destination.

They could also make a move at catcher, particularly if Yasmani Grandal turns down his mutual option with the Brewers and enters the market. James McCann had a nice 2019 season and complements Abreu’s veteran presence. But Grandal also brings veteran presence, he’s only one year older, and Grandal’s 119 OPS+ beat McCann’s by 10 points.

 MLB Teams: Buyers in 2020

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs failed to close the deal on their 2019 post-season run. But victories in 24 of their final 38 games installed faith in GM Mike Hazen’s game plan, as did the growth of pitching discovery Zac Gallen.

Arizona enters the winter with only about $52 million in commitments, leaving as much as $50 million in playing-around money. Marte and Eduardo Escobar, the 2019 team leaders in home runs with 32 and 35 respectively – are under contract already.

But even assuming that the development youngsters like Gallen, Carson Kelly, Merrill Kelly, and Christian Walker and breakout star Marte showed is the real thing – there are still needs. Another reliable starter who can buttress youngsters Gallen and Taylor Clarke would be a very good idea.

Nick Ahmed is a third-year arbitration-eligible who may or may not be worth the kind of money a third-year arb player can command. If the verdict is negative, he might have enough trade value to justify the pursuit of an old D-Back acquaintance, Didi Gregorius.

One other possibility: Could Escobar play shortstop well enough to go after Josh Donaldson or Mike Moustakas, assuming the latter declined his mutual option with the Brewers?

Arizona’s plans could be influenced by outside events. If the Dodgers, for example, appear on course to land Cole, that may increase the pressure on Hazen to do something on the same bold level.

 MLB Teams: Buyers in 2020

Texas Rangers

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In Chris Woodward’s first season, the Rangers finished 78-84, 29 games behind the division-leading Astros. That’s the bad news. The good news is Woodward improved them by 11 games over 2018.

In the Metroplex, there is a reason to believe the Rangers are sufficiently on the upswing to justify an aggressive winter.

Texas operated on a $118 million payroll in 2019, but that was an artificially low number designed to reflect the team’s perceived status as a non-contender. The franchise’s usual payroll neighborhood is closer to $145 million. Given about $93 million in existing commitments, Rangers GM Jon Daniels probably has the flexibility he would need to compete for at least one top-tier free agent.

The Rangers are a logical candidate to pursue any available third baseman – that could be Rendon, Moustakas or Donaldson. If they’re tired of Delino DeShields’ perennially miserable OPS+, they might prefer to chase an outfielder, especially one who can play center field. Depending on how options decisions fall out, that could be Adam Eaton. If they’re willing to gamble on outfield defense, Nick Castellanos – with his 50 or so doubles — is available.

And even assuming the Rangers want to keep Isiah Kiner-Falefa behind the plate, he can’t play all the time. Yasmani Grandal would be interesting.