Washington Nationals Must Stay Mad For Game 1 of the WS
Dave Martinez manages the Washington Nationals using three guiding principles: stay in the fight, go 1-0 every day, and if Max Scherzer can pitch, let him pitch.
Does it matter who starts game 1 of the World Series for the Washington Nationals? Max Scherzer started the Wild Card game, Patrick Corbin game 1 of the NLDS, Anibal Sanchez game 1 of the NLCS. They won all of those series.
The World Series, obviously, is a different animal. It carries the urgency of the Wild Card game with the length of the NLCS. In practical terms, that means everything is on the table regarding pitcher usage: starters in relief, starters on short rest, Hudson and/or Doolittle for multiple innings at a time.
That said, it’s a little misleading to say everything is on the table, because in fact, the options are limited. Austin Voth will not be getting a start in the World Series. Fernando Rodney will not (hopefully, by god) get the opportunity to close out a game. What we actually mean is that as far as pitcher abuse is concerned – we are no longer concerned.
Plan A for Dave Martinez is to assign any/all important innings to his super six: Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Sanchez, Sean Doolittle, Daniel Hudson. In a grinder or extra-inning game, Tanner Rainey or Rodney could be called upon to face a batter or two, probably a full inning at most. If anyone else on the pitching staff makes an appearance, it’s because there’s a blowout or deep extras.
Starting pitcher order, then, is our first opportunity to second guess Davey’s decision-making in the 2019 World Series. It affects what extra arms Martinez will have available to him out of the pen on which days. It affects who is guaranteed the most starts, and who Davey can use the most.
The dominoes start to fall as soon as he names a game 1 starter.
Who starts game 1?
The Washington Nationals have a difficult question to answer: will Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg start game 1 of the World Series? Many, I’m sure, will clamor for Strasburg to get the nod considering his dominance this postseason, but according to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, Max Scherzer is still the man in the nation’s capital.
Going with Mad Max makes sense: he’s one of only a few surefire Hall-of-Famers pitching in the majors today. He had a stretch this season in which he was dominant as a pitcher can be, going 6-0 with a 1.00 ERA across six starts in June. His 2.45 FIP led the majors among qualified pitchers, as did his 12.7 K/9 and 7.36 K/BB. This season. Not in some far and distant prime.
If it weren’t for the injury that sidelined him for a few weeks in August, Scherzer likely would be readying his mantle for a 4th Cy Young Award. Even limited to 27 starts, he’s going to land a top-5 finish for the 7th consecutive season. He’s on the shortlist for best pitcher in the game. The very short list. As excellent as Strasburg has been all season long, he’s not on that list.
Working against Max is the fact that Stras is very much one of the pitchers that any team would be happy to throw in game 1 of a playoff series. He is among an elite tier of pitchers that could qualify as a true ace. He just happens to play on the same team as Max Scherzer. The only teams with a top-2 in their rotation at all comparable to the Nats 1-2 punch are the Dodgers, whom they already vanquished, and the Astros, who may yet emerge as their World Series challenger.
Max struggled some in September, and he gutted out 5 tough innings in the Wild Card game before Strasburg came in to save the day. But since then, Scherzer has rounded back into mid-season form.
After striking out the side in a dominant relief appearance, Max went 14 innings in his last two starts with just 1 earned run, 5 hits, and 5 walks allowed versus 18 strikeouts. Max is back, and I have zero qualms with giving him the ball in game 1 of the franchise’s first World Series.
Max for games 1 and 5, Stras for games 2 and 6. It could be as simple as that to give the Nats their first World Series title. Given the level of competition forthcoming, it’s likely to be a little more complicated than that.
When Should They Use Corbin?
Corbin should continue to be the guy most often used on his throw day, if only because either the Yankees or the Astros will have a big left-handed bat, and the Nats have limited neutralizing agents where left-handedness is concerned. Doolittle aside, Corbin is the closest thing to a lefty specialist available to Dave Martinez.
Roenis Elias could see an appearance in this World Series, but he’s a reverse-splits guy, and if he’s facing a lefty then something is amiss. Martinez used him repeatedly against lefties during the regular season, but postseason Davey has been a different animal.
From his careful use of pen arms, to utilizing his starters in relief, to sticking with Howie Kendrick in an everyday capacity, Martinez has shown the ability to zag from his regular season strategies in the postseason. Hopefully, that means Elias won’t be seeing a left-handed opponent at any point prior to spring 2020.
The Astros have made do without a lefty in the pen, but they have a host of righties with reverse-splits, whereas the Nats have Elias and Rainey, whom lefties rake against, their two stalwarts, a collection of righties with normal splits, and Voth, who was more than capable as a 5th starter during the season, but has yet to make an appearance in the playoffs. He did warm up once, so you know…he’s definitely out there.
Corbin is a lock to make an appearance out of the bullpen. The Astros ability to avoid strikeouts is the perfect strategy for putting together an inning like the Dodgers used to beat Corbin in game 3 of the NLDS, but Corbin put together quality relief outings after that, and they’ll have no choice but to rely on him in this capacity for the World Series.
How much they can rely on Corbin as a reliever depends on where they use him as a starter.
The natural order would be: (1) Scherzer, (2) Strasburg, (3) Corbin, (4) Sanchez, (5) Scherzer, (6) Strasburg, (7) Corbin. That order makes Sanchez available out of the pen for game 6 or 7, and it means Corbin’s relief possibilities would be game 1 and game 5. But in order to maximize Corbin as a reliever, there might be a better option.
Should Sanchez Start Game 3?
Given Corbin’s usefulness out of the pen, and Sanchez going full Mariposa in his emergence as a postseason force through two starts, it probably makes sense to, you know, pitch him more. By flip-flopping Sanchez and Corbin in the order, the Nats should be able to maximize the usage of both.
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Starting Sanchez in game 3 would mean giving Corbin just the one start in game 4. It would mean Corbin being available for a true piggybacking role for game 1 or as a throw-day reliever in game 2. Perhaps most importantly, it would mean unfettered use of Corbin out of the pen for games 6 and 7.
All Sanchez has done is prove himself entirely capable of pitching a big game. He also happens to have World Series experience, giving up just two runs in seven innings in a game 3 loss for the Tigers in 2012.
(Scherzer’s only career World Series start came the day after, and though the Tigers were swept by the Giants that year, it wasn’t the fault of the starting pitching. Their offense scored a total of six runs across those four games.)
Starting Sanchez in game 3 also means lining him up for a game 7 start, which might seem counterintuitive if you get yourself stuck on the idea of Sanchez as their 4th-best starter. In terms of prior planning, however, game 7 is the least important, as it has the greatest chance of not happening. Besides, by the time we get there, it’ll be an all-hands on deck situation for probably everyone besides the game 6 starter (presumably, Strasburg).
Which brings us back to the importance of the game 1 starter.
Whichever of Scherzer or Strasburg pitches in game 1 also gets the start for game 5, making them available out of the pen for game 7 or even a calculated throw-day appearance in game 3.
The game 2 starter will be limited to his two starts, plus a potential throw-day appearance in game 3 or 4. That means the game 1 starter could get an extra appearance.
Next. Yankees Stay Alive. dark
Dave Martinez has managed under a few guiding principles this season: stay in the fight, go 1-0 every day, and as often as Max Scherzer can pitch, let him pitch. No reason to veer from the plan now.