Houston Astros and Washington Nationals: How they stack up for the World Series

The Houston Astros is a decided favorite, but there are reasons to believe the Washington Nationals will compete.

The Houston Astros are listed as two-to-one favorites to beat the Washington Nationals in the upcoming World Series. Sounds like the smart money is pretty sure of itself.

There is logic behind that sentiment. In a merged league, the Nationals would have finished 14 games behind the Astros.  Houston is perceived to have survived a far tougher League Championship Series opponent. They also have their aces, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, lined up to start Games 1 and 2…at home.

For the record, Houston is 60-21 at Minute Maid Park this season.

Is the matchup actually that one-sided? Answering the question requires a deeper dive into the numbers and personalities of each team.

For starters, while Washington’s record was 14 games worse than Houston’s, that fact is almost entirely attributable to the Nationals’ indifferent 19-31 start. Since May 24, the two teams have played virtually identical ball: Houston was 74-37, Washington 74-38.

Since post-season play began, the Nationals have, if anything, been more statistically dominant than the Astros. The National League champions outscored three post-season by more than two-to-one (51-25) in winning eight of 10 playoff games, two in win-or-go-home version.

The Houston Astros have won seven of 11 post-season games, but by only a combined two-run margin (41-39).

The Nationals also have the better of it when regular season performance against the teams’ 11 common opponents is considered.  Washington went 31-21, a .596 percentage, against those 11 teams. Houston’s 32-24 record translates to a .571 winning percentage against the same 11 clubs.

Here’s a deeper dive into the comparative numbers.