Houston Astros and Washington Nationals: How they stack up for the World Series

The Houston Astros is a decided favorite, but there are reasons to believe the Washington Nationals will compete.

The Houston Astros are listed as two-to-one favorites to beat the Washington Nationals in the upcoming World Series. Sounds like the smart money is pretty sure of itself.

There is logic behind that sentiment. In a merged league, the Nationals would have finished 14 games behind the Astros.  Houston is perceived to have survived a far tougher League Championship Series opponent. They also have their aces, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, lined up to start Games 1 and 2…at home.

For the record, Houston is 60-21 at Minute Maid Park this season.

Is the matchup actually that one-sided? Answering the question requires a deeper dive into the numbers and personalities of each team.

For starters, while Washington’s record was 14 games worse than Houston’s, that fact is almost entirely attributable to the Nationals’ indifferent 19-31 start. Since May 24, the two teams have played virtually identical ball: Houston was 74-37, Washington 74-38.

Since post-season play began, the Nationals have, if anything, been more statistically dominant than the Astros. The National League champions outscored three post-season by more than two-to-one (51-25) in winning eight of 10 playoff games, two in win-or-go-home version.

The Houston Astros have won seven of 11 post-season games, but by only a combined two-run margin (41-39).

The Nationals also have the better of it when regular season performance against the teams’ 11 common opponents is considered.  Washington went 31-21, a .596 percentage, against those 11 teams. Houston’s 32-24 record translates to a .571 winning percentage against the same 11 clubs.

Here’s a deeper dive into the comparative numbers.

Pitching

On paper, and particularly at the top, Houston’s numbers are superior. Powered by the tandem of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, the Houston Astros ranked first in ERA+  (127) and strikeouts (1.671). Cole and Verlander, of course, both struck out 300 opponents.

By comparison, Washington’s staff ranked only 11th in ERA+ at 108, and just eighth in strikeouts at 1,511, 160 fewer than Houston.

With the exception of home runs allowed, Houston’s staff was also superior in other major categories. Here’s a table comparing the two staffs in five significant categories.

                                              Houston (rank)                 Washington (rank)

Runs Per Game                 3.95 (2nd)                             4.47 (9th)

ERA                                       3.66 (3rd)                              4.27 (13th)

Fewest hits                        1,205 (2nd)                           1,340 (T7)

Fewest home runs           230 (19th)                             202 (7th)

Fewest walks                     448 (2nd)                              517 (12th)

Those, however, are season-long numbers, which means they encompass Washington’s 19-31 start. Since then, the two staffs have performed on precisely even footing in terms of runs allowed, both averaging 4.15 runs allowed per game.

The other factor that could operate in Washington’s favor – and indeed, which could be critical in a seven-game series, is rotation depth. Washington’s third and fourth starters, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez, delivered a 25-15 regular-season record and collective 3.52 ERA in 63 starts. Granted, Corbin has pitched poorly in the post-season thus far. But so has Greinke, Sanchez has been superb for Washington, and Houston won’t even carry a fourth starter into the World’s Series.

If Scherzer and Strasburg can merely hold their own against Verlander and Cole, the performance of the third and fourth pitchers could be decisive.

Fielding

Aside from raw power, if Houston has one potentially decisive advantage, it lies in the Houston Astros glovework.

During the regular season, Houston led the majors in Defensive Efficiency Rating, while the Washington Nationals ranked solidly mid-pack (13th). Measured by fielding percentage, Houston’s .988 was number two in the majors, while Washington’s .985 was 11th.

In Fielding Runs Saved – the synoptic number for glovework, Houston’s total of 54 ranked second in all of baseball. In simple terms, that credits Houston fielders with preventing 54 runs that a team with normal fielding skills would have allowed in.

Again, Washington Nationals fielders were almost perfectly ordinary. Their Fielding Runs Saved score of 1 ranked 18th in the majors.

This advantage plays out in numerous positions. If they choose to do so, the Astros can start five players who saved the team a minimum of six runs on defense this past season.  That’s led by outfielder George Springer’s 20. Jake Marisnick, Alex Bregman, Robinson Chirinos, and Yuli Gurriel are the others.

Washington, by contrast, has only one six-run defensive star, and he’s exactly the guy you would assume, third baseman Anthony Rendon, with 8. When Kurt Suzuki catches, he’s a liability behind the plate, as is Juan Soto in left field.

The normal Houston starting eight saved an average of 5.0 defensive runs per man this season. For Washington, the comparable figure was a fraction under 1 defensive run saved per man.

Managers

Given that A.J. Hinch led the Houston Astros to the 2017 World Series championship while Dave Martinez is taking his first team to the World Series, the experience advantage is obvious. But how will each man manage?

Both are, by modern standards anyway, relatively conservative in the use of their bullpens. Hinch used an average of 4.0 pitchers per game, Martinez 4.3. That made Hinch 8 percent less likely to pull a pitcher than the average American League manager, and Martinez 3 percent less likely than the average National League manager. Neither man is, as yet anyway, a convert to “bullpenning.”

Martinez is also, again compared with league norms, relatively slow to go to their benches. He employed 1.52 per game, slightly fewer than the norm in the National League, where pinch hitters for the pitcher are almost a daily factor.

Hinch is average by American League standards in his use of pinch hitters. His use of about one every two games translates to about 1 percent more often than the AL average.

Although the Nationals ranked third in the majors in stolen bases this season, Martinez is not particularly profligate in his use of the steal strategy. Given 1,342 theoretical opportunities, he ordered 94 attempts at a steal of second base in 2019, putting him only about 9 percent above the National League average for frequency. The Washington Nationals stole a lot of bases because they were especially good at it, not because Martinez was especially aggressive.

Hinch’s 91 steal attempts ranked him two percent above the midpoint for American League managers.

The one thing you can take to the bank is that if an intentional base on balls is ordered during this series, it won’t come on orders from Hinch. He never called for one all season. Martinez called for 41, about 24 percent above the normal frequency for National League managers.

Postseason

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

So far, most of the numbers we’ve looked at favor Houston, as would be expected.

But that analysis is stood on its head if only post-season numbers are considered. For those who believe in recency bias, Washington is an attractive World Series pick, especially at the current odds.

In post-season play, the Nationals’ .243 batting average maybe 22 percentage points below its regular-season standard, but it’s still far superior to Houston’s .208. The Washington Nationals also have big leads in post-season on-base average (.311 to .284) and slugging average (.382 to .358).

Looking purely at post-season games, Washington is out-scoring its opponents by 5.1 runs to 2.5. And that discrepancy is only engorged when the two post-season defeats – both by margins of six runs to the Dodgers – are factored out. In their eight post-season wins, the Washington Nationals have won by average scores of 5.9 to 1.1.

Since post-season play began, the Houston  Astros have not yet displayed quite the same tendency to bury teams. The average score of a Houston post-season game in 2019 is 3.7 to 3.5. The Astros’ seven wins have been more decisive, but the average margin in those games of 5 to 2 still falls about two runs short of Washington’s average winning margin.