Postseason
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So far, most of the numbers we’ve looked at favor Houston, as would be expected.
But that analysis is stood on its head if only post-season numbers are considered. For those who believe in recency bias, Washington is an attractive World Series pick, especially at the current odds.
In post-season play, the Nationals’ .243 batting average maybe 22 percentage points below its regular-season standard, but it’s still far superior to Houston’s .208. The Washington Nationals also have big leads in post-season on-base average (.311 to .284) and slugging average (.382 to .358).
Looking purely at post-season games, Washington is out-scoring its opponents by 5.1 runs to 2.5. And that discrepancy is only engorged when the two post-season defeats – both by margins of six runs to the Dodgers – are factored out. In their eight post-season wins, the Washington Nationals have won by average scores of 5.9 to 1.1.
Since post-season play began, the Houston Astros have not yet displayed quite the same tendency to bury teams. The average score of a Houston post-season game in 2019 is 3.7 to 3.5. The Astros’ seven wins have been more decisive, but the average margin in those games of 5 to 2 still falls about two runs short of Washington’s average winning margin.