Phillies: Route to acquire Gerrit Cole for 2020
Trade-offs will be a Phillies necessity if they sign Cole, a closer and re-up their All-Star catcher, but general manager Matt Klentak and managing partner John S. Middleton could offer more years to lower the AAV (average annual value) and possibly succeed.
Top-tier dollars:
For the Philadelphia Phillies faithful, inking Gerrit Cole and a top fireman plus re-upping J.T. Realmuto is just the beginning. But a similar solution requires everything to go right with the realization the front office will mortgage the future like they did with Bryce Harper. Ergo, 13 seasons lowered the AAV!
IN OTHER WORDS: “When you’re building something, you know all of the trade-offs.” – Nolan Bushnell
Regarding the offseason, the Fightins could add a two-slot starter and a bottom-rung rotation piece because their offensive can only get them a wild-card berth at best. Plus they need a critical-inning hurler and a setup man. Of course, fans view Gerrit Cole as their entertainment, not a business decision.
In today’s market, all 30 owners prefer to be under the competitive-balance threshold, and they don’t want the penalties that go up to 75 percent with lost MLB Draft picks. Yes, even though they have top prospects unproven above Double-A or Triple-A, they don’t want to mistakenly swap the wrong one.
To determine the feasibility of inking the stud, Klentak must also consider the competition from large market franchises to rebuilding organizations. Basically, which clubs are ready to contend in 2020, not 2021 or 2022. And do some teams have more pressing needs?
Freeing up money by dealing away players with in-house replacements, the Phils can increase their tally by $18-19 million AAV to sign free agents. Translation: They can have new regulars in center field and at second and third base. Plus they can add this amount to the total coming off the books via three veteran relievers.
With Middleton involving himself in baseball decisions, the possibility exists to sign the best available talent, like he did with Harper. And since penalties depend on the AAV, $310 million over 10 summers is $31 million AAV, while $330 million for 13 campaigns is $25.4 million AAV. Ergo, the difference is $5.6 million AAV.
For $6 million, Klentak could pick up a needed setup man. But the downside is the deferred-like years at the contract’s back end because it could hamper a future GM. On the other hand, shorter pacts for dramatically more money increase the AAV. So, three seasons of Harper at $120 million equal $40 million AAV.
Western divisions:
To bid on Gerrit Cole, some franchises won’t be able to compete with deep-pocketed organizations like the Phillies. Financially, the Oakland A’s are an American League West club you can eliminate, plus the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers probably aren’t ready to spend for a divisional title.
As for the National League West, the Colorado Rockies have abysmal bullpen contracts. And the last place San Diego Padres are counting on their young starters for ’20 and beyond, plus they finished 22 games under .500. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks have unloaded ace Zack Greinke‘s commitment.
Monetarily, even though the Houston Astros have their second and third sackers under contract, their center fielder will be a free agent after 2020, plus their shortstop and young starter returning from Tommy John surgery will be more expensive. That stated, to keep Cole will require creativity from the execs.
Concerning the Los Angeles Angels, the rotation and the pen have titanic needs, but they have only $50-55 million AAV. However, signing Gerrit Cole and pairing him with their two-way star won’t satisfactorily address their shortcomings and produce a wild-card berth even with Mike Trout. But will they do it?
$208 million competitive-balance threshold for 2020:
- Astros: $230.9 million AAV with 8 departing free agents: 2 SPs, 4 RPs and 2 Cs.
- Angels: $154.3 million AAV with 1 departing free agent: RP.
- Dodgers: $182.8 million AAV with 4 departing free agents: 2 SPs, C and INF.
- Giants: $139.2 million AAV with 6 departing free agents: SP, CL-RP, 2 RPs, C and INF.
- Padres: $133.3 million AAV with 1 departing free agent: RP.
- Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV.
- Phillies: $191.2 million AAV with 8 departing free agents: LF, SP, 4 RPs and 2 INFs.
With closer Kenley Jansen‘s decline, the Los Angeles Dodgers will spend to plug their ninth-frame hole. Staff-wise, they have in-house moundsmen to replace two free-agent starters including Hyun-Jin Ryu because ownership’s plan is staying under the $208 million mark.
The San Francisco Giants are a good example of a team not letting go of their glory days, and their owner wants the attendance numbers of championship 162s. However, Cole unlike Harper isn’t an everyday player. But Anthony Rendon is a regular for $200 million. Yes, they can ink a top-tier star and fill other holes.
Central divisions:
In the AL, the Phillies rivals for Gerrit Cole won’t include the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals due to restructuring, plus $200 million is way above the Cleveland Indians bottom-line ceiling. Concerning the Minnesota Twins, they’ll bid but consider it too expensive. No surprises there!
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers have financial limitations with different reasons. Realistically, the Bucs are a small-market club that won’t lose money by trying to compete with deep-pocketed franchises, while the Brew Crew is at their limit according to their decision-makers.
The Chicago White Sox can easily afford $200 million, and they play in a weak division comparatively speaking. But is 2020 too soon to pursue capturing the AL Central flag? And, if so, they won’t want to spend $30 million in ’20 without making a run at Minnesota and Cleveland.
For the Chicago Cubs, they will prioritize re-upping their right fielder Nicholas Castellanos acquired in July and replace two free-agent relievers. Plus they want to keep their spending under the Luxury Tax threshold. Besides, they have decent rotation arms, but no Gerrit Cole.
$208 million competitive-balance threshold for 2020:
- White Sox: $82.3 million AAV with 5 departing free agents: SP, 1B, 2 RPs and OF.
- Cubs: $183.1 million AAV with 7 departing free agents: SP, 3 RPs, 2B and RF.
- Cardinals: $168 million AAV with 4 departing free agents 2 SPs, C and LF.
- Reds: $128.2 million AAV with 2 departing free agents: SP and SS.
- Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV.
- Phillies: $191.2 million AAV with 8 departing free agents: LF, SP, 4 RPs and 2 INFs.
With $40 million AAV, the St. Louis Cardinals will be in the market for a left fielder and two starters. And although they could sign Cole and an outfielder, they probably won’t commit to seven campaigns for an ace, even though they could creatively fit in the stud and remain under the $208 million threshold.
The Cincinnati Reds will need a starter and a shortstop, but offense is their main weakness. On the other hand, their owner wants to spend the dollars, but he may have a limit in mind. And it won’t be $80 million or include a $30 million Cole either, even though he wants to make a run at the divisional title.
Eastern divisions:
While some national writers believe Gerrit Cole will sign with the Angels or New York Yankees, the Phillies have a narrow path to close the deal. But some AL East teams don’t appear to be in the running: The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are rebuilding, while the Tampa Bay Rays manage on $65-75 million annually.
In the NL East, the Miami Marlins are restructuring, and the Atlanta Braves have $50 million to spend but $14 million will go to Melancon. Of course, they probably wouldn’t commit to seven summers and $200 million anyway. Meanwhile, the New York Mets have a bullpen to repair and limited expenditures.
Two clubs some are considering as competition have other difficulties. For instance, the Boston Red Sox want to remain competitive and lower their AAV by $17-18 million, while the Washington Nationals have $67 million to plug holes left by nine free agents. And they’ll probably replace or re-up Rendon.
$208 million competitive-balance threshold for 2020:
- Yankees: $214 million AAV with 4 departing free agents: SS, CF, RP and C.
- Red Sox: $225.6 million AAV with 5 departing free agents: SP, RF, 2B and 2 1B.
- Mets: $206.7 million AAV with 5 departing free agents: SP, RP, 3B and 2 OFs.
- Nationals: $140.5 million AAV with 9 departing free agents: 3B, CL RP, 2 RP, 2 2B, SP, OF and INF.
- Phillies: $191.1 million AAV with 8 departing free agents: LF, SP, 4 RPs and 2 INFs.
- Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV.
If the Yanks don’t retain their free agents and decline the $20 million team option for Edwin Encarnacion, it would lower their AAV to $194 million. But $14 million under the competitive-balance threshold isn’t enough to cover inking Gerrit Cole. So, they would need to move at least $16 million to be under the $208 million.
Regarding their free agents, the Yankees have other infielders and outfielders, and picking up a backup catcher won’t be problematic. But free agent Dellin Betances suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon after his first outing on Sept. 15: He struck out two Blue Jays. So, can he match 2019’s $7.25 million?
The Yankees need a solid starter and Cole is the obvious target. However, ownership has qualms about exceeding the Luxury Tax limit and guaranteeing a pitcher more than five seasons. Or they’ll consecutively exceed the penalty for Cole. On the other hand, Ryu will be lower by $10 million AAV.
One route:
As for Gerrit Cole, the Phillies need to move their second sacker and tarnished center fielder and non-tender their third baseman, plus the total for deducting arbitration estimates and adding buyouts for declined players is $46.2 million. Then, their projected AAV of $191.1 million minus $46.2 million AAV equals $144.9 million AAV.
According to 2020’s estimate, the Fightins have $63.1 million AAV. And Cole ($30 million AAV), Will Smith ($13 million AAV) and Realmuto ($20 million AAV) total $63 million AAV. But if you add a 162 to his offer, Cole at $220 million for eight campaigns ($27.5 million AAV) lowers the tally to $60.6 million AAV.
As for Realmuto, $120 million for seven seasons has a $17.1 million AAV, and $55 million for five summers of Smith has an $11 million AAV. Ergo, the $63 million AAV drops to a $55.7 million AAV to leave $7.4 million AAV available. But if you want Gerrit Cole, you might also get Velasquez for the fifth rung of five-man staff.
Excluding Smith, the tally is $18.4 million AAV to cover a starter and two relievers. In the pen, Klentak could ink Daniel Hudson and Will Harris each for two years at $10 million apiece, or Betances could be flier at $4 million plus incentives aplenty. Basically, the number crunchers will have a full plate.
$208 million competitive-balance threshold for 2020:
- Astros: $230.9 million AAV with 8 departing free agents: 2 SPs, 4 RPs and 2 Cs.
- Angels: $154.3 million AAV with 1 departing free agent: RP.
- Dodgers: $182.8 million AAV with 4 departing free agents: 2 SPs, C and INF.
- Giants: $139.2 million AAV with 6 departing free agents: SP, CL-RP, 2 RPs, C and INF.
- Padres: $133.3 million AAV with 1 departing free agent: RP.
- White Sox: $82.3 million AAV with 5 departing free agents: SP, 1B, 2 RPs and OF.
- Cubs: $183.1 million AAV with 6 departing free agents: SP, 3 RPs, 2B and RF.
- Cardinals: $168 million AAV with 4 departing free agents 2 SPs, C and LF.
- Reds: $128.2 million AAV with 2 departing free agents: SP and SS.
- Yankees: $214 million AAV with 4 departing free agents: SS, CF, RP and C.
- Red Sox: $225.6 million AAV with 5 departing free agents: SP, RF, 2B and 2 1B.
- Mets: $206.7 million AAV with 5 departing free agents: SP, RP, 3B and 2 OFs.
- Nationals: $140.5 million AAV with 9 departing free agents: 3B, CL RP, 2 RP, 2 2B, SP, OF and INF.
- Phillies: $191.1 million AAV with 8 departing free agents: LF, SP, 4 RPs and 2 INFs.
- Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV.
Middleton wants to win now and the Phils need pitching. An even though he had wanted Harper on a 15-season pact to lower the AAV even more, the agreement was for 13 campaigns with a $25.6 million AAV. So, is it possible the managing partner could use the same approach with Cole? Yes!
Next. Phillies: Rebuilding 2020's pen from the ashes. dark
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