Trade-offs will be a Phillies necessity if they sign Cole, a closer and re-up their All-Star catcher, but general manager Matt Klentak and managing partner John S. Middleton could offer more years to lower the AAV (average annual value) and possibly succeed.
Top-tier dollars:
For the Philadelphia Phillies faithful, inking Gerrit Cole and a top fireman plus re-upping J.T. Realmuto is just the beginning. But a similar solution requires everything to go right with the realization the front office will mortgage the future like they did with Bryce Harper. Ergo, 13 seasons lowered the AAV!
"IN OTHER WORDS: “When you’re building something, you know all of the trade-offs.” – Nolan Bushnell"
Regarding the offseason, the Fightins could add a two-slot starter and a bottom-rung rotation piece because their offensive can only get them a wild-card berth at best. Plus they need a critical-inning hurler and a setup man. Of course, fans view Gerrit Cole as their entertainment, not a business decision.
In today’s market, all 30 owners prefer to be under the competitive-balance threshold, and they don’t want the penalties that go up to 75 percent with lost MLB Draft picks. Yes, even though they have top prospects unproven above Double-A or Triple-A, they don’t want to mistakenly swap the wrong one.
To determine the feasibility of inking the stud, Klentak must also consider the competition from large market franchises to rebuilding organizations. Basically, which clubs are ready to contend in 2020, not 2021 or 2022. And do some teams have more pressing needs?
Freeing up money by dealing away players with in-house replacements, the Phils can increase their tally by $18-19 million AAV to sign free agents. Translation: They can have new regulars in center field and at second and third base. Plus they can add this amount to the total coming off the books via three veteran relievers.
With Middleton involving himself in baseball decisions, the possibility exists to sign the best available talent, like he did with Harper. And since penalties depend on the AAV, $310 million over 10 summers is $31 million AAV, while $330 million for 13 campaigns is $25.4 million AAV. Ergo, the difference is $5.6 million AAV.
For $6 million, Klentak could pick up a needed setup man. But the downside is the deferred-like years at the contract’s back end because it could hamper a future GM. On the other hand, shorter pacts for dramatically more money increase the AAV. So, three seasons of Harper at $120 million equal $40 million AAV.