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Phillies: Route to acquire Gerrit Cole for 2020

By Tal Venada

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 15: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros celebrates retiring the side during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 15: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros celebrates retiring the side during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 15, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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The Phillies may take a flier on Betances with an incentive-ladened offer. Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. /

Eastern divisions:         

While some national writers believe Gerrit Cole will sign with the Angels or New York Yankees, the Phillies have a narrow path to close the deal. But some AL East teams don’t appear to be in the running: The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are rebuilding, while the Tampa Bay Rays manage on $65-75 million annually.

In the NL East, the Miami Marlins are restructuring, and the Atlanta Braves have $50 million to spend but $14 million will go to Melancon. Of course, they probably wouldn’t commit to seven summers and $200 million anyway. Meanwhile, the New York Mets have a bullpen to repair and limited expenditures.

Two clubs some are considering as competition have other difficulties. For instance, the Boston Red Sox want to remain competitive and lower their AAV by $17-18 million, while the Washington Nationals have $67 million to plug holes left by nine free agents. And they’ll probably replace or re-up Rendon.

$208 million competitive-balance threshold for 2020:

  • Yankees: $214 million AAV with 4 departing free agents: SS, CF, RP and C.
  • Red Sox: $225.6 million AAV with 5 departing free agents: SP, RF, 2B and 2 1B.
  • Mets: $206.7 million AAV with 5 departing free agents:  SP, RP, 3B and 2 OFs.
  • Nationals: $140.5 million AAV with 9 departing free agents: 3B, CL RP, 2 RP, 2 2B, SP, OF and INF.
  • Phillies: $191.1 million AAV with 8 departing free agents: LF, SP, 4 RPs and 2 INFs.
  • Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV.

If the Yanks don’t retain their free agents and decline the $20 million team option for Edwin Encarnacion, it would lower their AAV to $194 million. But $14 million under the competitive-balance threshold isn’t enough to cover inking Gerrit Cole. So, they would need to move at least $16 million to be under the $208 million.

Regarding their free agents, the Yankees have other infielders and outfielders, and picking up a backup catcher won’t be problematic. But free agent Dellin Betances suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon after his first outing on Sept. 15: He struck out two Blue Jays. So, can he match 2019’s $7.25 million?

The Yankees need a solid starter and Cole is the obvious target. However, ownership has qualms about exceeding the Luxury Tax limit and guaranteeing a pitcher more than five seasons. Or they’ll consecutively exceed the penalty for Cole. On the other hand, Ryu will be lower by $10 million AAV.

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