Toronto Blue Jays: Three free agents to target this offseason
The Toronto Blue Jays will enter the 2019 offseason with financial flexibility and areas that need to be improved, with 3 free agents who could be in play.
Coming into the 2019 offseason, the rebuilding Toronto Blue Jays have a few areas on their roster that could use an upgrade via free agency.
The starting rotation is particularly young and inexperienced on the MLB stage, with prospects battling for rotation spots this upcoming year in spring training. This is the area that needs the most improvement on the Blue Jays, in that 1-2 free agent pickups with some MLB experience could really improve the current squad.
The front office won’t go crazy and fill out every spot with free-agent pitchers, but an established starter to compliment the up and coming prospects in the rotation could be beneficial once the team hits the end of rebuild road.
Another area the Blue Jays may look to improve upon is in their outfield, primarily in center field. Teoscar Hernandez, the Toronto Blue Jays current center fielder, has not proven to be an everyday starter in the outfield, leading the team to look elsewhere for consistency elsewhere.
There is the potential that outfield prospects like Anthony Alford or Derek Fisher could see some time in this position, with a potential spring training competition determining who goes to the bench and who may be sent packing (whether AAA or other organizations due to lacking options).
First base could also use an improvement, with the possibility that veteran Justin Smoak leaves the organization via free agency this season. Rowdy Tellez is primed to overtake this position for the next few years, but the jury is still out on if he will be a consistent major league contributor. Whether the Toronto Blue Jays look to find options outside of the organization or maybe move a different prospect to first base, this area is probably the least of concern out of the previous two.
The free-agent market can be a rough and tumble time for many fans, and this offseason is going to be no different for Blue Jays fans.
Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi is hitting free agency for the first time in his career, after having spent the past 8 years with 3 different ball clubs.
Drafted in the 1st round, 32nd overall by the Milwaukee Brewers, Odorizzi would make pit stops in Kansas City and Tampa Bay before finally being traded to the Minnesota Twins, where he has spent the past two seasons.
For his career, Odorizzi has a 13.3 WAR, along with a 62-55 record, 3.88 ERA and 983 strikeouts. He had a solid year in 2019 with the playoff-bound Twins, starting 30 games and tossing a 3.51 ERA with 62 earned runs, 53 walks, and 178 strikeouts. He pitched in 159 innings this season, and his ERA would tie him for 6th best in the American League.
The reason Jake Odorizzi would be a good fit for the Toronto Blue Jays would be his ability to slot in as a dependable starter at a reasonable price. Free-agent starting pitchers always come highly regarded and come with stiff competition for their services, but Odorizzi will most likely command a salary of around $17-20 million a year.
A contract this size would be easily doable for the Blue Jays given their financial flexibility with the younger roster, and a veteran player with 8 years in the MLB would be a locker room benefit for a rebuilding squad.
He would be an excellent #2 starter in the future years once the future prospects develop and during that time can be used as the #1. He’s not the ‘ace’ that fans are looking for, but he is the dependable guy who will keep games close every 5 days. He has also been relatively healthy over his career, which is an added bonus.
The one caveat with signing Odorizzi is the potential of a qualifying offer. There is no clear consensus on whether the Twins will offer him a QO, but in the off chance that they do, I could see him signing the offer (making him not a free agent).
The offer value this year is at $17.8 million, which is the compensation area he would most likely generate in free agency. He could sign the offer, bet on himself to have another good year, and receive a longer-term deal next year when he cannot be offered a QO anymore. The past few off-seasons have seen teams shy away from free agents attached to offers, making players wary of going to free agency with ‘baggage’.
If he does not receive the QO from the Twins, the Blue Jays should go in hard for his services. It would be a tough sell to sign Odorizzi if he rejects the qualifying offer and comes with draft pick compensation, with other options potentially on the table that don’t come with a loss of high-value picks.
Dallas Keuchel
Free agency can be a harrowed time for players, with Dallas Keuchel having his own negative experiences this past season.
Keuchel would sit out roughly half of the season, finally signing with the Atlanta Braves on June 7. The left-handed pitcher had been offered a qualifying offer, and after rejecting the offer, he would sit on the sidelines all offseason and two full months into the regular season. Teams weren’t willing to sign Keuchel to the long term deal he wanted while also giving up the draft picks in compensation, so after the June Amateur draft (no longer tied to the draft picks), he finally signed with an MLB team.
In just 19 starts this season, Keuchel would generate a 2.0 WAR with a 3.75 ERA, 91 strikeouts and 39 walks. He would give up 47 earned runs with 16 coming via the long ball, while also getting opposing hitters to smack 60.1% of batted balls on the ground. His ground ball to fly ball ratio was also at 1.47, which is an excellent statistic that would feature well in a hitter-friendly ballpark like the Rogers Centre.
Who should the Toronto Blue Jays pursue in trades and free agency this winter? @kaitlyncmcgrath's 'Offseason Target' series provides deep dives on some likely names.
— The Athletic Toronto (@TheAthleticTO) October 20, 2019
Dallas Keuchel: https://t.co/RjKOhh3YoO
Edwin Encarnacion:https://t.co/11d9hRma1A
With the qualifying offer behind him, this offseason should be an easier one for the 6’3 left-hander. He too would be a veteran in the relatively young Toronto Blue Jays clubhouse and should command a similar salary to Jake Odorizzi at roughly $17-20 million per season.
There is one thing going against the Blue Jays in signing Keuchel, in the form of his representation by agent Scott Boras.
Known for getting his clients the most money as possible through the free-agent market, Scott Boras has been very critical of rebuilding teams like the Blue Jays. Boras states that the Blue Jays suffer from the ‘Blue Flu‘, which is the main reason fans were not attending games and the reason behind the attendance continuously dropping since the playoff seasons in 2015 and 2016.
The Blue Jays will most likely win Dallas Keuchel over if they entice him with the most money per season, even if it means overpaying by $1-3 million dollars. Depending on how the market is for his services, this could make the Blue Jays out of contention if a team is willing to go towards the higher side of the aforementioned pay range, as $22+ million is most likely too much for his services.
Getting players up to play in Canada has always been a challenge for the Toronto Blue Jays front office, and this offseason will be no different.
Nicholas Castellanos
The Toronto Blue Jays have already been rumored to be interested in free agent Marcell Ozuna this offseason, but Nicholas Castellanos might be the better option for this squad.
For one, Ozuna is most likely going to receive a qualifying offer this season, which he would be foolish to not accept given his down year in the 2019 regular season. Secondly, with Ozuna most likely receiving a QO, which if he was to reject, would require the Blue Jays to give up draft picks in compensation for his services.
Or, the Blue Jays could go after another viable option in Castellanos.
Traded midway through the 2019 season, he cannot receive a qualifying offer from the Chicago Cubs, which already makes him more enticing than other potential free-agent outfielders.
Castellanos had a productive season, slashing .289/.337/.525 with 27 home runs, 73 RBIs while striking out 143 times. He was noticeably better after being traded to the Chicago Cubs, but this was a smaller sample size given he spent only 1/3 of the season in the windy city. That’s not to say he wasn’t productive in Detroit, as he still had a better slash line than current Blue Jays center fielder Teoscar Hernandez.
The one negative regarding Castellanos is his fielding ability, which is average/below average at best to along with his average speed. He has also never played a single inning of MLB baseball in center field, meaning he would need to learn the position over the offseason (would not recommend) or Randal Grichuk will be sliding over the center field with Castellanos moving into right.
If the Toronto Blue Jays can snag Nick Castellanos without having to pay an arm and a leg to acquire his services, then he will be a significant upgrade over Hernandez. He would be a risky signing, in that the Blue Jays front office will pray that he continues to play like he did in Chicago and this 1/3 of a season is not a one-off.
Next. World Series: Scherzer vs. Cole and the best matchups ever. dark
Some other honorable mentions that the Blue Jays will most likely be rumored to look at or possibly acquire: Zack Wheeler, Tanner Roark, Avisail Garcia, and Brett Gardner.