Toronto Blue Jays: Three free agents to target this offseason
Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi is hitting free agency for the first time in his career, after having spent the past 8 years with 3 different ball clubs.
Drafted in the 1st round, 32nd overall by the Milwaukee Brewers, Odorizzi would make pit stops in Kansas City and Tampa Bay before finally being traded to the Minnesota Twins, where he has spent the past two seasons.
For his career, Odorizzi has a 13.3 WAR, along with a 62-55 record, 3.88 ERA and 983 strikeouts. He had a solid year in 2019 with the playoff-bound Twins, starting 30 games and tossing a 3.51 ERA with 62 earned runs, 53 walks, and 178 strikeouts. He pitched in 159 innings this season, and his ERA would tie him for 6th best in the American League.
The reason Jake Odorizzi would be a good fit for the Toronto Blue Jays would be his ability to slot in as a dependable starter at a reasonable price. Free-agent starting pitchers always come highly regarded and come with stiff competition for their services, but Odorizzi will most likely command a salary of around $17-20 million a year.
A contract this size would be easily doable for the Blue Jays given their financial flexibility with the younger roster, and a veteran player with 8 years in the MLB would be a locker room benefit for a rebuilding squad.
He would be an excellent #2 starter in the future years once the future prospects develop and during that time can be used as the #1. He’s not the ‘ace’ that fans are looking for, but he is the dependable guy who will keep games close every 5 days. He has also been relatively healthy over his career, which is an added bonus.
The one caveat with signing Odorizzi is the potential of a qualifying offer. There is no clear consensus on whether the Twins will offer him a QO, but in the off chance that they do, I could see him signing the offer (making him not a free agent).
The offer value this year is at $17.8 million, which is the compensation area he would most likely generate in free agency. He could sign the offer, bet on himself to have another good year, and receive a longer-term deal next year when he cannot be offered a QO anymore. The past few off-seasons have seen teams shy away from free agents attached to offers, making players wary of going to free agency with ‘baggage’.
If he does not receive the QO from the Twins, the Blue Jays should go in hard for his services. It would be a tough sell to sign Odorizzi if he rejects the qualifying offer and comes with draft pick compensation, with other options potentially on the table that don’t come with a loss of high-value picks.