Philadelphia Phillies: The 2019 final players report card
There were only a handful of bright spots in 2019 for the shockingly under-performing Philadelphia Phillies, but their nucleus is still relatively strong.
It goes almost without saying that the grades for the 81-81 Philadelphia Phillies of 2019 will produce a fairly disappointing team GPA, but it is perhaps time to consider what those grades are.
After all, team management in some way goes through this exercise at the end of every season. This particular off-season these evaluations are likely being done by GM Matt Klentak and/or team president Andy MacPhail since manager Gabe Kapler was dismissed a few weeks ago.
Maybe the analytics guys are also involved somehow, but whoever puts fingerprints on the report cards for the very expensive Phils, new manager Joe Girardi will likely be handed something like the following someday soon.
We’ll begin with the starting eight position players and the number one pitcher at the end of the season.
The De Facto Starters October 1, 2019
Pitcher Aaron Nola: B+. Even in what was clearly an off-year for Nola, he was able to compile a record most starters in MLB would be perfectly happy with, but very quietly – 12-7/3.87 ERA/1.265 WHIP. However, on the heels of the right-hander’s sterling 2018, when he finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young vote, this past summer’s campaign had to be a disappointment for him. Basically, he struggled with pitch location in a most un-Nola-like way, or to be more precise, he had too many days when he couldn’t locate his fastball while the curve was just fine or vice versa. There seems no reason not to expect him to carve about 0.100 off his ’19 WHIP next season, bringing it back in line with his lifetime figure. It would not be a stretch to see him return to his ’18 figure there – 0.975 – assuming he hits an extended groove. Entering his age-27 season, Nola will have won better than three in every five decisions for his career.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto: A. Realmuto posted the best WAR (4.4) in the starting lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies, according to Baseball-Reference, with a slightly different starting list than given here. Bryce Harper was second (0.2 behind). In his first season with Philly, the nominal best catcher in baseball established himself as the best off-season signing by the team. He threw out an MLB-best 46.7 percent of base-runners attempting to steal on him, which also involved throwing out 16 more runners than the next best catcher in either league. At the plate, he slashed .275/.328/.493. He should win the NL Gold Glove.
The Infield
First Baseman Rhys Hoskins: C. The only things keeping Hoskins’ grade from being a C- are his age and his OBP (.364), which was driven by 117 walks. Hoskins came to the Philadelphia Phillies with praise for his pitch selection, being mature beyond his years, but this year he saw his RBI and home run totals drop by 11 and five, respectively, with 45 more plate appearances. With a .226 BA in the books for ’19, Hoskins will move into his age-27 season looking perhaps more tentative than mature as a hitter. Maybe manager Girardi’s much-discussed passion will spur him toward taking a few more cuts at early strikes.
Second Baseman Cesar Hernandez: B. Hernandez has never captured the love of the Phillies fan base enjoyed by his predecessor, Chase Utley, but nonetheless he has been one of the most consistent players on the team for his whole career. After playing with a broken bone in his foot for part of 2018, the infielder bounced back in ’19 to hit .279 (+26 points), two points above his career average. However, he did have a couple of lapses in terms of hustle, and for some reason, despite very good speed, has never stolen many bases. For the fourth year in a row, his fielding average at second was in the .981-.984 range, with the past three years all involving 572 chances or more.
Third Baseman Maikel Franco: D. Franco is barely designated the third baseman here, considering super-utilityman Scott Kingery played third in more than half as many games (9) as Franco did (17) in September, and Kingery basically finished the season at third. Once considered a foundation piece for the Phillies, Franco is now almost an afterthought whose offensive numbers have slid downhill badly. He seems unable to handle new, “analytical” coaching (hit the ball in the air, Mike), but may merely need a change of scenery. That change should come this winter or next spring unless Girardi (or the new Phillies hitting coach) and he really hit it off. Franco is still a plus fielder if you take into account his annual handful of spectacular plays.
Shortstop Jean Segura: B-. Like Hernandez, Segura had a couple hustle lapses during this past season, and it will be interesting to see how incoming manager Girardi deals with such matters. That said, Segura had a good season offensively although his three year streak of .300-plus BAs was snapped. Oddly, however, while he did drive in 60 runs, his everyday predecessor at short for the Philadelphia Phillies, Freddy Galvis, drove in 70 runs for Toronto and Cincinnati, and hit almost twice as many home runs as Segura (23-12). No one would have predicted that. Segura did score more runs (79 to 67), and while he is a plus fielder, he is no Galvis with the glove.
The Overhauled Outfield
Left Fielder Corey Dickerson: B*. Dickerson gets an asterisk here for two reasons: 1) His name should be spelled A-n-d-r-e-w-M-c-C-u-t-c-h-e-n, and 2) his grade is partly based on his performance in Pittsburgh in the first half (.315/.373/.551). After the Philadelphia Phillies acquired him, the slash line dipped a bit (.293/.307/.579), but the one increase pointed to more productive at-bats. With a nearly identical number of PAs playing for the two teams at the opposite ends of Pennsylvania, Dickerson hit twice as many HRs (8 to 4) and drove in nine more runs (34-25) for the eastern franchise. Of course, he finished the season as the de facto left fielder because of the season-ending injury to McCutchen (see Incompletes, below). Dickerson made no errors in the field for the Phillies.
Center Fielder Adam Haseley: A-. Like Dickerson, Haseley was pressed into service because of the absence of the nominal starter, Odubel Herrera, who was suspended for most of the season because of a domestic violence issue. The UVA product made the most of the situation, producing perhaps the lone quite pleasant surprise of the ’19 campaign. Haseley hit .266 overall, peaking at .280 on Aug. 6 in his 23rd MLB game. He also played a surprisingly solid center field, even yanking back a couple of potential homers from over the wall. As has been observed elsewhere, he is a solid reason to jettison Herrera (.222/.288/.341 when he was shut down) after producing an OPS 91 points higher than Herrera’s in 103 more PAs.
Right Fielder Bryce Harper: A-. OK, everybody down in the DC Twitterverse had loads of fun with where the Nats finished the same year the Phillies signed Harper to a monstrous contract, and all that – with like observations outside of social media – may have slightly obscured the fact that Harper had a very fine season. His RBI total (114) was a team-best by a mere 29, and his outfield assist figure (13) was tied for the NL lead, one behind the MLB leader’s, and four better than in his MVP season. He played hard every day and drove his BA up 11 points from ’18. Now, if he’d just stop flying out of his shoes on 90 percent of his swings…
Incompletes
Several key injuries and another factor actually did, in all probability, keep the Philadelphia Phillies from actually posting a winning season and, possibly, saving Kapler’s job. And many of the Fightin’ fans would say, “Thank goodness on that second point.” So, all of the following are, in fact, incompletes (I), but grades are given for the partial season efforts, with some further thinking applied as necessary.
Left Fielder Andrew McCutchen: A-. The former MVP slides into top-grade category basically because of his leadership, clubhouse presence, and clutch play. I believe he belted the third pitch of the Philadelphia Phillies offensive season out of the park. He still has a quick bat moving into his age-33 season (after a knee repair), a quick wit, and knows how to play the game. He hit 10 homers and drove in 29 in only 59 games before his ACL repair, and made only two errors in 110 chances.
Center Fielder Odubel Herrera: D. Despite his athleticism, It. Is. Time. For. Him. To. Go. If your contract calls for you to make over $5 million, you don’t get yourself suspended for most of the season because you can’t keep your hands off your girlfriend when you’re mad.
Relief Pitcher David Robertson: C. This is a default grade in reality since Robertson only booked 6.2 innings before being shut down and undergoing Tommy John surgery. His numbers weren’t particularly good over that “span,” but his lifetime 2.90 ERA argues he’d likely have straightened out. In reality, though, Robertson wouldn’t receive a grade if his contract for ’19 hadn’t been for $10 million.
Relief Pitcher Adam Morgan: B+. A flexor strain sidelined the lefty after 39 games, but when he was available, he pitched well (3.94 ERA, 1.011 WHIP); indeed, had he not given up three earned runs in the last game before he was shut down, he would have posted a 3.07 ERA (assuming a shutdown at least one day earlier).
The Other Starters
Starter Jake Arrieta: C. At 8-8, with a 4.64 ERA and 1.474 WHIP before being shut down, Arrieta would likely have earned a C- if he hadn’t made it publicly known he was trying to battle through a bone spur, and in fact, did that for a short while. As indicated by the upgrade, that “publicly known” bit isn’t meant as a criticism. I believe the right-hander genuinely wants to lead and to produce for the Philadelphia Phillies. At least he had the good sense to have the elbow cleaned out when the toughing-it-out notion didn’t work.
Starter Zach Eflin: B-. As the youngest of the Three Failing Amigos (see the next two pitchers), Eflin pitched well enough to actually book 23 decisions. Unfortunately, 13 were losses. But this right-hander might well take the fifth slot in the rotation next summer, assuming the Phillies make the trades they need to (read, for two starters). Rejecting instruction to use four-seam fastballs, Eflin returned to throwing the two-seamer that induces grounders after he returned from his banishment to the bullpen.
Starter Vince Velasquez: C. And that’s probably generous. Velasquez is the sort of hurler who might benefit from the coming, new pitching coach, but he’s not getting any younger. He will move into his age-28 season with his blazing fastball, a career record seven games underwater, and a consistent tendency to miss enough spots to head for the shower by the fifth or sixth inning. Trade him if possible.
Starter Nick Pivetta: D. Pivetta can’t locate his pitches either as a starter or reliever albeit his fastball hits 98. Definitely trade him, if necessary for the commonplace bag of balls.
Starter Jason Vargas: D+*. Again and moving forward, the asterisk indicates a partial season in Philly. Coming over from the Mets mid-season, Vargas went 1-4 after a 6-5 effort in New York. His contract has expired; he is 99-99 lifetime, entering his age-37 season. Let him go.
Starter Drew Smyly: C+*. Smyly is an intriguing case and another potential fifth starter if the Philadelphia Phillies properly fix their rotation through trades or signings. The left-hander came to Philly after a dreadful start in Texas while still recovering in an extended way, seemingly, from surgery. For the Phils, then, he went 3-2, dropping his WHIP a ridiculous 0.585 to 1.324, a figure that at least doesn’t scream, “Retire!” A potential B pitcher, a potential F.
Others Deserving Grades
As the Philadelphia Phillies tried desperately to justify their off-season acquisitions, they tried a lot of players, including 34 total pitchers (counting three position players), so not all of them will be graded. Some deserve note, however, as the Phillies scrambled to make do with nine different relievers having visited or on the IL as August started.
Infielder/Outfielder Scott Kingery: B. Just give the kid a position to call his own.
Closer Hector Neris: B+. At the age of 30, Neris seemed to regain control of his split-finger fastball and booked a 2.93 ERA and a career-high 28 saves. His WHIP was a most presentable 1.020. Like Hernandez, Neris hasn’t ever captured the imagination of Phillies fans, but he is now a seasoned veteran, a hard worker, and apparently a good clubhouse presence. Barring a trade for a high-profile reliever, he is the closer.
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Relief Pitcher Ranger Suarez: A-. Like Haseley, this lefty was one of the few bright spots for the ’19 Phillies aside from Realmuto and Harper. Being in the right games at the right times, he finished 6-1 with a 3.14 ERA. He did put a few more people on base than an ideal reliever would, but along with Robertson and Neris, he should be one of only three relievers in spring training guaranteed a job, barring injury.
Relief Pitcher Jose Alvarez: B. 3.36 ERA. At 30, Alvarez posted his second-best career ERA and may have found his stride after some time with the Angels and, originally, the Tigers. He passes an eye test, and seems durable, appearing in 67 games for the Phillies.
Relief Pitcher Nick Vincent: B-*. What do you make of a 33-year-old coming from the Giants with a 5.58 ERA for the year, and a totally up-and-down career? Vincent is moving into 2020 at 21-21 lifetime with a career 3.32 ERA. However, he posted a 1.93 ERA with the Phillies in 14 games with a WHIP approaching his earliest MLB years’ efficiency. He is a free agent but may be worth a spring training invitation.
Outfielder Jay Bruce: C+*. It may not be fair to downgrade a player who injures himself, but that is a concern with Bruce at his age. In a season split between Seattle and Philadelphia, Bruce managed to hit 26 HRs and drive in 59 runs in only 333 PAs, but the 32-year-old is at best a part-time player now, perhaps a good bat off the bench.
Next. Chicago Cubs: 2019 letter grades for every player. dark
Beyond these players, it is difficult to find reasons to grade any other ’19 Philadelphia Phillies, and there were plenty. Arguably, Seranthony Dominguez and Roman Quinn have some potential or trade value, but now Dominguez has injured himself, and Quinn is always injured. It behooves the seeming five dozen other people in red pinstripes this past season to really work in the off-season. They will, assuming invitations to Florida, have to earn their jobs.