Phillies: 2020's reloading with 3 top arms

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Cole dials up a gem in his last 2019 outing and leaves a lasting image prior to free agency. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. /

Negotiating the Phillies offseason route to playoff contention is general manager Matt Klentak’s goal, and he’ll probably sign certain pieces to seriously vie for the National League East pennant.

Combination approach:

For the Philadelphia Phillies, Klentak must firstly free up financial resources he’ll devote to pitching acquisitions by moving some regulars. And then the franchise could re-up J.T. Realmuto and pursue a trio of hurlers including a late inking of Gerrit Cole.

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While some are speculating the Fightins need two starters and four relievers, two of each will be a challenge unto itself. Unlike, however, last winter’s addition of $488 million in commitments, this offseason Klentak will be much closer to the ceiling of $208 million AAV (average annual value). Translation: difficult limitations.

The signing of new manager Joe Girardi signals two possibilities. Firstly, did managing partner John S. Middleton reveal his interest in picking up competitive pitchers? And if those roster additions don’t improve the win column, will Klentak receive his pink slip?

Financially, if Klentak makes moves to increase expenditures from $16.9 million AAV to $63.1 million AAV, then the GM and Middleton must be creative to ink three quality moundsmen. Regarding Klentak, he will have $33.1 to $35.6 million AAV for Realmuto, a rotation piece and a firemen.

The GM’s plan could be to ink a two-slot hurler for $13-15 million AAV, a solid reliever for $4-5 million AAV and a re-upped catcher for $15-20 million AAV. As for Middleton, he can wait out Scott Boras until spring training –as he did with Jake Arrieta and Bryce Harper— plus he can add a year and a higher offer to lower Cole’s AAV.

This is baseball: the hot stove league for negotiations, agents and contracts in the millions. Unfortunately, competition is in no short supply, and the execs just like the hitters and pitchers have their contemporaries. But injuries, ineffectiveness and luck are also in the equation.

Using a combination approach, I demonstrate the parameters facing Klentak in November and December. By Jan.1, though, the GM could have two arms in the fold and a second starter on the horizon if a Cole signing isn’t developing to Middleton’s satisfaction.

Hudson has closing experience the Phillies will have interest in. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. /

Bottom line:

In my last Phillies article, I provided Middleton’s route to Cole, a closer and an extension agreement for Realmuto. But if the only lengthened commitment for a pitcher involves Cole, Klentak could set aside $27.5 million AAV or $220 million for eight seasons. Ergo, $35.6 million AAV left.

For $16 million AAV over seven campaigns, Realmuto would receive $112 million total, and negotiations probably began in early October. So, $19.6 million could be for a starter and a reliever: They can’t count on Cole as a definite and must acquire a solid rotation piece beforehand.

As for a quality late-inning fireman, Dellin Betances earned $7.25 million in 2019. But he only recorded two outs (his only outing) before suffering a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon on Sept. 15. Perhaps, he’s worth $4 million with a $10 million vesting option in an incentive-ladened pact compensating success and health.

With $5 million AAV for two summers, Daniel Hudson or Will Harris would bring the total to $20-21 million AAV for Realmuto and one of Hudson, Harris or Betances. Therefore, Klentak would have at least $14.6 million AAV for a starter, and a two-slot arm could cost $14 million AAV.

Jake Odorizzi is 29 and a first-time free agent who could sign a four-year contract for $56 million or $14 million AAV. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels will be 36 and is now a mid-rotation moundsman. Plus while the AAV is roughly the same, the results and health risk are not. Besides, the other three aces didn’t make it to 36, did they?

If Strasburg opts out, the Phillies could sign him and a setup man. Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

Tight fit:

The Phillies could re-up Realmuto plus sign Odorizzi and either Hudson or Harris. For Cole, Middleton could again deal with Boras because most organizations can’t wait due to wanting their roster completed by December’s end. Ergo, they can’t bank on picking up Cole.

Klentak can ink a two-slot hurler and a late-game reliever, plus he’d have $27.5 million AAV for an opting-out Stephen Strasburg and one of those three relievers if signing Cole isn’t panning out. But keep in mind, the front office must decide by late December on the Boras’ situation with the ace.

If the plan is successful, the five-man staff would be Cole, Aaron Nola, Odorizzi, Arrieta and Zach Eflin. Basically, that would give Girardi a fighting chance to win the NL East. On the other hand, the bullpen’s back end could be Hudson, Hector Neris and Ranger Suarez.

Phillies distribution of $63.1 million AAV:

Fireman: $5 million AAV for Hudson or Harris.
Odorizzi: $14 million AAV ($56 million total).
Realmuto: $16 million AAV ($112 million total).
Cole $27.5 million AAV ($220 million total).
Total: $62.5 million AAV.

For fans who want Klentak fired, the GM will have no easy task securing his All-Star catcher, a top starter and a quality fireman. In fact, this offseason test will determine his ability because it’s unlike signing veterans to flip in July or having 2019’s millions: Will he be able to satisfy his detractors? No!

Harris is a setup man who can handle critical innings before the ninth for the Phillies. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies 2020 competitive-balance threshold of $208 million:

Estimates beginning at $191.1 million AAV.
Hernandez: -$11.8 million via trade for $179.3 million AAV.
Herrera: -$6.1 million via trade for $173.2 million AAV.
Franco: -$6.7 million via non-tender for $166.5 million AAV.
Parker: -$4.7 million via free agency for $161.8 million AAV.
Morin: -$1.2 million via free agency for $160.6 million AAV.
Gosselin: -$0.7 million via free agency for $159.9 million AAV.
Neshek: -$6.25 million via free agency for $153.65 million AAV.
Vargas: -$6 million via free agency for $147.65 million AAV.
Hughes: -$2.75 million via free agency for $144.9 million AAV.
$208 million AAV minus $144.9 million AAV equals $63.1 million AAV.

Phillies targets’ statistical results toward 75-80 percent:

Hudson: 47 good, 7 so-so and 15 bad (1 blowup) out of 69 total for 78.3%
With Washington: 17 good, 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 24 total for 83.3%
Harris: 54 good, 6 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 68 total for 88.2%
A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.

Phillies targets’ 2019 stats:

Hudson, 32.5:

Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.
Harris, 35: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.15 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.

Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
Odorizzi, 29.5: 30 Gms., 159 Inn., 15-7, a 3.51 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, a 4.33 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.

Next. Phillies: Route to acquire Gerrit Cole for 2020. dark

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